At some point in the second period on Saturday, Bruins coach Jim Montgomery decided he needed to make a change.
He needed to get his big guns — the vaunted top line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak — playing against an Auston Matthews line that was cooking the Charlie Coyle-led third line.
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Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe countered when the third period began.
If the Bruins were going to go best on best, so would he and the Leafs. It was time, he decided, for Mitch Marner to rejoin Matthews and Michael Bunting on what had been the most dangerous line in hockey last season.
Three minutes into the third, Marner hunted down a puck on the forecheck, stripped Hampus Lindholm of it and found Bunting, who gave it to Matthews to do the rest.
Which begs the question: Is it time for the Leafs to more permanently reunite Marner with Matthews and Bunting?
Keefe described the switch-up in Boston as “situational.”
“I just thought in a game like this,” he said, “I thought we could use a little extra push.”
He added: “In terms of what we’ll do going forward, I don’t know.”
It’s been over two months since Keefe broke up that once devastating trio, replacing Marner on the line with William Nylander. That combination — Matthews, Nylander and Bunting — had been stomping dudes until recently.
Nylander is suddenly mired in a season-long six-game goal drought. He showed some rare frustration against the Bruins, slamming his stick across the boards at one point when one of his shot attempts was blocked by a Boston defender’s stick.
The other top-six line of Marner, John Tavares and Calle Järnkrok has been fine; nothing to get overly excited about, but nothing to necessarily worry about either. (Järnkrok was held pointless in the three games after his three-point explosion in Philadelphia earlier this month.)
It’s the second half now, which means Keefe and his staff, more than before, have to start looking ahead to the postseason and ask themselves one simple question: Are they going to be a better team when it matters when Marner hangs with Tavares or Matthews?
For what it’s worth, Matthews, Marner and Bunting shredded their matchup against Bergeron, Marchand and Pastrnak. The sample size is tiny, but in those four minutes the Leafs won 98 percent of the expected goals and of course, scored the goal that tied the game.
Put Marner there and Keefe is basically saying to his foes behind the bench, “Deal with this. Good luck!”
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‘This’ being the Leafs’ two best players running around together — one of the very best passers on the planet setting up one of the very best shooters on the planet — with Bunting wreaking havoc as an annoying third wheel.
It’s the option, of course, that Keefe has long preferred since becoming Leafs coach. Marner, Keefe seemed to always believe, supercharged the line to its maximum potential. Both were A-plus defenders. Why not play them together and play them against anyone?
There are slight downsides, of course.
Keep Matthews and Marner together and foes can stack all their top defensive talent against that one line and know that if they somehow slow them down, they’ll likely slow down the Leafs. The Lightning had some success with that in last year’s first-round series, with Anthony Cirelli-led lines stifling Matthews and Marner.
Knowing that another matchup with Tampa is looming, the Leafs need to think about what construction presents the bigger challenge then: Matthews and Marner together or Matthews and Marner apart.
Keeping them apart would force the Lightning, say, to tangle with them both separately. One minute Matthews is out there. The next, out comes Marner.
Marner can also help insulate Tavares defensively.
In Tavares’ 320 minutes with Marner at five-on-five this season, the Leafs are giving up just 1.93 expected goals per 60 minutes. In nearly 200 minutes with Nylander, that number shoots up to 2.5. (The offensive numbers, however, favour the Nylander-Tavares combo.)
Those issues are what led, more or less, to Nylander and Tavares playing apart for most of the second half last year.
Playing Nylander with Matthews and Marner with Tavares gives the Leafs two very good lines as opposed to one great line, potentially, and one pretty good line with clear limitations.
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Mike Babcock, Keefe’s predecessor, preferred the former construction for that reason. He always believed the Leafs were better off having Matthews and Marner each power their own line.
Another thing worth keeping in mind: Things looked flat, stale even, between Marner, Matthews and Bunting before Saturday. It’s what led to Keefe trying something new in the first place. Will the chemistry reignite this time around?
It doesn’t feel like there’s a wrong way to go, necessarily. And by keeping Marner and Matthews apart for as long as they have, the Leafs have unlocked — or rather, unearthed once more — the Nylander-Matthews connection and, to a lesser degree, the Marner-Tavares combo.
More options for later — for when it matters.
Mitch Marner returns to the John Tavares line.
Rasmus Sandin absent. https://t.co/ZhSXUTSztI
— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) January 16, 2023
Five Points
1. Defensive stopper: Bunting’s next contract has, understandably, drawn a lot of attention — a lot more than another pending UFA, David Kämpf.
It’s going to be really interesting to see if the Leafs can (and will) pony up to keep Kämpf around beyond this season. Kämpf will likely be after a cap hit of at least $3 million — double his current rate — on his next deal.
Kämpf demonstrated his value as a master in janitorial services in last year’s playoffs, particularly in a Game 3 win over the Lightning.
His role is as important as ever.
Though his deployment hasn’t been quite as extreme as last season (30 percent offensive zone faceoff percentage this season vs. 24 percent last year), Kämpf has still lined up for the most five-on-five defensive zone draws of any forward on the team. He’s the Leafs’ No. 1 option at forward on the penalty kill. He wins over 52 percent of his draws. He’s even on pace for almost 30 points, which would just edge out last year’s career high of 26.
Kämpf thinks he’s gotten a little better everywhere.
“I worked a lot this summer on my skating and I think I improved that,” he said in a one-on-one conversation earlier this year.
Specifically, his first three steps. Kämpf feels he’s a tad quicker as a result of offseason work with the Leafs’ development staff. “I feel like (I have) more time with the puck because my skating is a little bit better,” he said.
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He feels his shot has improved as well.
“I think the release is a big factor,” Kämpf said. “(There’s) not too much time in those games” to shoot the puck.
Kämpf has only four goals all season and none since Dec. 8. He isn’t shooting it quite as much as last year and having less luck (eight percent) when he does. The offence is still pretty limited, if better than it was when he arrived.
Defence, of course, remains Kämpf’s calling card. Even there, he thinks he can improve by using more of his strength (he’s 6-feet-2 and almost 200 pounds) in one-on-one battles.
“Overall, for sure I can be better,” Kämpf said.
Like last season, despite the quicksand deployment, the Leafs are outscoring teams (17-16) when Kämpf is out there at five-on-five. He’s even more valuable in the playoffs. Can they afford to let him go?
2. Partners: Keefe said the issues (turnovers) that plagued the Morgan Rielly–Conor Timmins combo against the Bruins had nothing to do with the pairing itself but the execution of those individual players. Fair enough.
In about 10 minutes of action together, these were the numbers for the twosome:
Shot attempts: 10-20
Shots: 3-11
Goals: 1-3
Expected goals: 35 percent
What it all seemed to highlight is the struggle the Leafs have had of late finding a partner for Rielly in T.J. Brodie’s absence.
One pairing that never seems to work: Rielly with Justin Holl.
Keefe has given them a go together only sporadically over the years, and for good reason apparently, as it always just looks a tad awkward.
Holl was Keefe’s first call after the Brodie rib injury.
It didn’t go well.
Over about 25 minutes against the Flyers and Predators, the Leafs won just 39 percent of the expected goals when Rielly and Holl were out there together.
The next game, not surprisingly, the Leafs coach brought in Jordie Benn from the press box to play with Rielly and returned Holl to Mark Giordano’s side. That didn’t go well either, which explains the Timmins experiment in Boston.
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3. Shot blocker: One thing about the Mark Giordano shot block: They’re often big and loud.
Like this one against Marchand over the weekend:
Giordano is willing, more than most, to put his body on the line to get in front of a shot.
Nobody has blocked more shots than Giordano since he became a full-time NHLer with the Flames during the 2009-10 season:
| Rank | Player | Shot blocks |
|---|---|---|
1 | 1935 | |
2 | 1918 | |
3 | 1834 | |
4 | 1755 | |
5 | 1724 | |
6 | 1710 | |
7 | 1708 | |
8 | 1645 | |
9 | 1640 | |
10 | 1630 |
4. Dryden Hunt and the fourth line: It hasn’t come together just yet for Hunt, playing on his third NHL team this season.
Hunt has yet to collect a point in seven games with the Leafs, has mustered just four shots, and owns an expected goals mark so far of just 30 percent. Fourth lines with Hunt on them have struggled to turn hard work on the forecheck into quality offence.
The most frequent of those units — Hunt with Pontus Holmberg and Zach Aston-Reese — has won just 27 percent of the expected goals.
Hunt plays hard and won’t hesitate to throw his body around; he’s already dished out 28 hits. That’s not going to be enough for the Leafs. That spot will likely need upgrading ahead of the trade deadline. Can internal candidate Bobby McMann put himself in contention?
5. Right side: The Leafs lost their best right-shooting faceoff man — Jason Spezza — to retirement after last season.
Järnkrok isn’t nearly Spezza in that department, but he hasn’t been half bad to this point, winning 46 percent of his draws this season, including — maybe most crucially — 55 percent on the penalty kill. The Leafs still might want someone with a little more precision for the playoffs, but Järnkrok has been solid enough so far that it’s not a five-alarm fire.
Quick
• Ilya Samsonov ranks second among NHL peers this season (min. 500 minutes) in high-danger save percentage at five-on-five (.902).
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• The Leafs penalty kill has the second-best expected goal rate defensively in the league this season, trailing only the league-best Bruins. The difference: Boston owns the fourth-best team save percentage short-handed, while the Leafs, who rank 17th on the PK, sit 20th.
• The Leafs with Rielly on the ice at five-on-five last season: 2.89 expected goals for per 60 minutes/2.52 expected goals against per 60 minutes. The Leafs with Rielly on the ice at five-on-five this season: 2.86 expected goals per 60/2.63 expected goals against per 60.
• Nylander’s shooting percentage has fallen to 14.1 percent this season.
Things I Think I Think
Pierre Engvall will forever be an enigma.
At times, he looks like he can do anything he wants out there.
Other times, he’s hardly noticeable. Engvall is on pace for 18 goals and over 30 points, very helpful production for a guy earning only $2.25 million on the cap. The Leafs still routinely win his minutes, particularly when he plays with Kämpf. It feels like there’s more there still. It might always feel that way for the Leafs (or Engvall’s next team; he’s another pending UFA).
Point of Curiosity
Can Bobby McMann take this opportunity and run with it?
McMann was under the weather on Saturday, so he didn’t face the Bruins. But he was noticeable in two games before that with seven attempts on goal and four hits in about 21 minutes.
He’s got good size, good pace, and maybe(?) the ability to chip in a bit offensively. The Leafs could really use a guy like that at the bottom of the lineup. Can McMann grab a job?
(Top photo of Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews and Michael Bunting: Kevin Sousa / NHLI via Getty Images)
Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey and Hockey Reference