Revisiting Winnipeg Jets 2022-23 bold predictions at season’s halfway mark

When I wrote my Winnipeg Jets bold predictions piece in September, I made a big fuss about doing it my way.

“No fake rosiness,” I wrote at the time. “We’re not talking about multiple 100-point seasons, Art Ross Trophies or trips to the Western Conference finals.”

It was my way of saying I’d seen one too many pieces promising fans the sun and the moon — not just Jets fans, mind you, fans in every market. This career 30-goal scorer would definitely score 50; that second pairing defenceman would make a case for the Norris. These are invented examples but I was feeling surly: I decided that I was only going to take a swing at a piece like this one if I could hold myself accountable to it.

Which was great, and all … When I thought it meant I’d nail my predictions with more accuracy than all of the rose-coloured writers I’d invented as adversaries.

But how am I actually doing?

With the Jets playing their 42nd game on Thursday — and winning it — I thought it was time to check in with my visions for Pierre-Luc Dubois, Mark Scheifele, Cole Perfetti, Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers, Rick Bowness and more.

10. Winnipeg will have a Calder Trophy finalist

“Perfetti is older, has more pro experience and will have more help via quality of linemates than an awful lot of the competition this year. I say he finishes with offensive numbers so strong he makes this year’s Calder Trophy podium,” I wrote.

Perfetti is third in rookie scoring with 22 points in 37 games. That’s not surefire finalist territory, nor does it seem as though anyone will threaten Matty Beniers for the Calder Trophy when all is said and done. That includes goaltenders Stuart Skinner, Pyotr Kochetkov and Logan Thompson — each of whom has been admirable in half or nearly half of their team’s starts.

Our own NHL awards watch recently left Perfetti (and Mason McTavish) out of the top 10 entirely at the expense of a group of defencemen like Owen Power, Jake Sanderson and Pierre-Olivier Joseph, whose impacts have been more impressive in terms of flow of play than outright production.

I think there’s a gap here that Perfetti can exploit — if he puts a strong run of production together. Remember his late November benching against Minnesota? Perfetti responded to that by going on a tremendous run, scoring nine points in eight games while generating all kinds of chances with Scheifele and Blake Wheeler. He’ll need to re-establish that type of production to catch the eyes of voters and I believe has the ability — and linemates — to do so. Keep an eye on the trade deadline though, because I don’t think a more veteran middle-six scorer is out of the question if Winnipeg can find the right price for one.

Verdict: Scoring it a zero but I’m not entirely without hope.

9. Samberg will win the job for No. 6 defenceman

This is a cheap win but after taking a zero on Perfetti I’m going to take the points on Dylan Samberg. Winnipeg waived Johnathan Kovacevic, kept Kyle Capobianco in a depth role and sent Ville Heinola to the Moose. Logan Stanley started the season as Winnipeg’s sixth defenceman but has been injured for most of the season.

Samberg deserves the job on merit, too. He’s been very good defending his own zone at five-on-five and on the penalty kill. There have been giveaways that have made highlight reels but Samberg does a good job in one-on-one coverage, shoulder checks well enough so that he doesn’t get beat back door and is an able and willing shot blocker when the chips are down. This has been a good season for Samberg.

Verdict: Win

8. Connor will lead the Jets in scoring (and fall well short of his career high)

This is Connor doing what he does best. Just frosty, ice-in-his-veins business to win Thursday’s game in Buffalo.

Here’s Connor answering a reporter in Buffalo’s question about scoring his eighth game-winning goal of the season:

“It’s tough to put into words, I guess. I think I’m just playing my game in that situation, maybe turned up, stakes are a little higher, I’m more into the game — not to say I’m not into the game at the start, I think it just ramps up. You feel it on the ice. Everything’s tight. Nobody wants to make a bad play. I think I just relish those opportunities.”

I’m well on track calling Connor to be Winnipeg’s leading scorer. Where I seem to be on track to miss, however, is suggesting that his career high of 93 points would be impossible to replicate with Bowness set to spread everybody’s minutes out.

Through 42 games, Connor’s 52 points give him a 102-point pace for the season. He might not just beat his career high; he might obliterate it.

Verdict: Half a point

7. Ehlers will finish second

I mean, could he?

With 10 points in six games, Nikolaj Ehlers has been the offensive wizard we predicted he would be. It makes perfect sense, given that he’s been Winnipeg’s most productive even strength scorer (in terms of points per minute of ice time) since Dustin Byfuglien was a Jet.

But Ehlers’ sports hernia surgery after just two games this season means he’s up against it to get anywhere near the top of Winnipeg’s scoring list … Right?

Actually …

If Ehlers scored at a 10-points-in-six-game rate for the 40 games he has left he would finish the year with roughly 77 points, passing nine teammates: everybody except for Connor, Dubois and Josh Morrissey. It’s a fever dream that won’t come true but remarkable all the same.

Verdict: Miss (with an awfully good excuse)

6. Bowness will make a decision that fans would have roasted Maurice for (and no one will seem to mind)

This one is highly subjective. Racking my brain for options yields:

1. Playing a defence-first, shutdown pair of forwards in Adam Lowry and Mason Appleton to start overtime. I remember comments that used to tear Maurice apart for not playing Ehlers enough or even for not electing to play three forwards and I think this decision qualifies.

2. Sending Heinola down to the AHL. If I wanted to try to spin this, I might say fans were easier on Bowness than they would have been on Maurice because of reputation alone. The storyteller in me allows that Maurice’s reputation was that he stifled young players and that Bowness got a lot of praise for Miro Heiskanen’s success in Dallas, along with the rise of Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. I also think that Heinola had a mediocre training camp and took a long while to find his game at the NHL level — in other words, I don’t think his initial demotion should come with controversy.

Beyond that, what is there? The Jets that Bowness inherited were a poor team systemically and he’s been able to make them a good one. I think that should grant him a little bit of favour with the fan base.

Verdict: Dubious. I’m taking a half point. Upgrade me if you think Maurice would have taken more heat; downgrade me if you think Bowness has been flawless.

5. Winnipeg will finish the season well below the cap maximum

Winnipeg’s current cap hit $3.4 million below the $82.5 million cap maximum. Injuries to Ehlers, Wheeler, Perfetti and Nate Schmidt forced Winnipeg to get closer to the limit for a large stretch of time there, maintaining those players’ cap hits plus the cap hits of their replacements.

Still, the Jets project to finish the season $1.7 million below the cap maximum — a figure that would give Winnipeg the ninth-lowest cap hit in the NHL.

Verdict: So far, so good.

4. But the Jets won’t be afraid to make additions if they’re anywhere close to playoff contention

Here’s where No. 5 could go off the rails. Kevin Cheveldayoff told reporters in Buffalo this week that he won’t be afraid to “seize the moment” if the right options became available. This tracks with his approach to past deadlines during successful seasons, such as his acquisitions like Paul Stastny in 2018 and Kevin Hayes in 2019.

Winnipeg isn’t quite as dominant as those teams were, particularly the 2018 version of the Jets that went to the Western Conference finals. Still, there’s plenty of outside pressure in the form of uncertain futures for potential 2022 UFAs Scheifele, Wheeler, Hellebuyck and Dubois. It’s possible that Cheveldayoff has a transition plan in place but, here and now, it looks as though a window could be closing on the Jets.

Does that mean they’ll go shopping? I think so — and Cheveldayoff seems to be saying so — but we wait.

Verdict: Too soon to tell.

3. Dubois will not sign a long-term extension in Winnipeg

Uh, so far so good. We’re 13 days into January and …

The truth is, I’m sweating a little with this one.

Dubois is having a tremendous season — as expected — and Winnipeg will have every reason to want to commit to him long-term. Cap space shouldn’t be an issue, nor should contractual hierarchy — I think that the next generation’s No. 1 centre would deserve to make the most money on the team. Winnipeg could sign Dubois for five years this summer and still not have to sweat overpaying him when he’s 30-plus.

From Dubois’ perspective, my guess is that the pull toward UFA status is still strong, whether that leads to the possibility of a Montreal homecoming or a different life decision. That said, the team’s performance, plus the dominant nature of his line with Connor and Ehlers, should make last year’s misery a memory as opposed to an ongoing emotion. Winnipeg should be able to offer Dubois two out of the three most important pillars for most people: good money and good people to work with. If he decides a different route is better for him on a personal front, then that’s his commitment to make.

Verdict: I’m sweating a little. This feels like less of a sure thing than it did to me in September. I wonder if Dubois himself knows.

2. Scheifele will have a great season, setting up a contract that ages horribly

Winnipeg outchances and outscores its opposition with Scheifele on the ice this season and he’s still on pace for 70 points. He’s not a Selke contender but he doesn’t need to be; Scheifele is having a quality year that should be celebrated, giving the Jets two viable No. 1 centres.

He also turns 30 on March 15 and will be 31 when his next contract starts in 2024-25. I still think the Jets are in an awkward spot as they approach Scheifele’s next deal; he was underpaid for so many years that I wouldn’t begrudge him for a minute if he pushes for a salary more in line with his offensive production. Maybe there’s a shorter-term, win-win deal that pays the player and protects the team but I’ll be a little bit leery until such a contract is announced.

Verdict: Sure Murat, take credit for unknowable future things

1. Hellebuyck will prove that he’s still the best player on his team

I don’t think this one requires an argument.

Connor. Hellebuyck.

We are not worthy.#NHLJetspic.twitter.com/Almk5o62kK

— Level Flight Podcast (@LevelFlightWPG) January 4, 2023

Verdict: Check.

By my sometimes very generous scoring system, I’m on pace for five or six out of a possible 10 points, with Ehlers being the only surefire miss.

What about your rubric? And, would you be interested in an end-of-season version of the same?

(Photo of Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey and Kyle Connor: Stephen Brashear / USA Today)