If fortune favours the brave, then in the case of Adam Armstrong, it also assists the patient.
Goals or any form of light have been fleeting for a player signed from the Championship and has spent the previous 18 months trying — and largely struggling — to make the step up.
So, however fortunate his winning goal against Crystal Palace was, with his block on Vicente Guaita ricocheting back to him to stroke into an empty net, it was greatly needed. Especially when he was subbed three minutes from time, receiving a back slap from his manager, smiles from those on the bench and a warm ovation from the travelling support in the opposite corner. Those moments have not been common.
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While it was not difficult for Southampton to improve on the shambolic nadir of Nottingham Forest three days earlier, their broader display against Palace resulted in a scarce victory against Premier League opposition — only their second since August.
The game was fraught with caveats, such as the two errors that led to Southampton’s goals. Nathan Jones could not claim success came from organised, pre-rehearsed work on the training ground.
In a post-match press conference that lasted 14 minutes, Jones described the performance as “aggressive” nine times, which typified Southampton’s current state; leaning heavily on function rather than imagination.
In some ways, Armstrong characterises Jones’ approach. One of the top-performing metrics he ranks highest in is his ability to block passes and shots. He is in the top one per cent of strikers from Europe’s big five leagues for putting his “body on the line”, proverbially speaking.
Of course, blocking is not what you want your £15million-forward to be best at.
Moments of substance have been few and far between for the 25-year-old since joining from Blackburn Rovers. Having equalled last season’s goal tally at Selhurst Park — taking him to four goals in 49 games — Armstrong’s number 9 shirt has tended to belie his role within a side blunt in attack.
This season, Armstrong has been predominately used in wider positions, a by-product of former boss Ralph Hasenhuttl’s deviation from his favoured 4-2-2-2, when he would play in a strike pairing.
Yet, in moving away from being an archetypal striker, Armstrong continues to falter when it comes to adding incision into his play.
His scattered heatmap from this season indicates a lack of positional clarity.
A continually changing role has contributed to Armstrong evolving into a player that tends to operate from deep and makes runs into wide areas, than being a striker who gets into the box and occupies opposing centre-backs, as he did at Blackburn. Below, a screengrab from Southampton’s Carabao Cup game against Sheffield Wednesday in November, provides an example of this.
It means when Southampton do get into conducive crossing positions, Armstrong is not in the areas a striker would be expected. In the example below, the former Blackburn man is outside of the box as Samuel Edozie delivers.
Armstrong’s willingness to track back has also played a part in his propensity for long, energy-sapping carries from deep. It is an admirable feature and often leads to him starting counter-attacks. They very rarely engineer just rewards, though.
In this instance against West Ham in October, Armstrong tracks the run of right-back Vladimir Coufal deep inside his own box, regains possession and carries the ball to the halfway line.
A similar scenario transpires three days later, away to Bournemouth…
Armstrong tends to create opportune moments on transition but does not make telling contributions. In the past year, Armstrong ranks in the bottom nine per cent of strikers from Europe’s top five leagues for shots on target, while he is in the bottom one per cent for expected goals (0.11xG per 90).
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“His record at Championship level is fantastic and, similar to me, has been given an opportunity in the Premier League and it’s tough,” Jones told The Athletic following the win at Palace. “I have to be very quick in how I learn, but Adam is great to work with. We asked him to be aggressive in how we pressed and I was pleased because that’s a hallmark of a team I would like to be associated with.”
Operating initially from the left in the 4-2-3-1, Armstrong drifted inwards in possession, in front of Palace’s backline but in relatively harmless areas. It would work fine on occasions, cultivating space for Romain Perraud to overlap on the outside.
In the 21st minute, Jones stepped out of his technical area to make his first tactical shuffle. He gestured for Armstrong to switch flanks, swapping with Edozie on the right. The former England Under-21 international’s diligence in tracking back helped Lyanco, who was made to moonlight at right-back, where he faced Wilfried Zaha.
Armstrong’s recovery runs limited chances for Zaha to drive at Lyanco one-v-one, with the striker-cum-winger discernibly more aware of defensive duties than Edozie. By half-time, Armstrong had touched the ball just 21 times — only Che Adams had fewer out of any player on the pitch.
He remained on the right side in the second half and made occasional darting runs across the front line, including one that led to a flicked goal-bound header having to be clawed away by Guaita.
Two minutes later, however, a similar diagonal movement did provide a pay-off. Picking his moment to press, Armstrong’s arched run hurried Guaita into a panicked clearance, managing to block the keeper’s kick (he is good at them, as we’ve discovered) before slotting into an empty net.
As Jones closed ranks towards the end, Armstrong’s position changed for the third time, moving up front alongside Sekou Mara in a 5-3-2.
His display was not dazzling by any means but encapsulated Southampton. Armstrong carried out his role dutifully, putting in the hard yards and, finally, earning that bit of good fortune.
(Photo: Tom Dulat/Getty Images)