On a podcast recently, Dayton Moore said Royals fans “like to follow” the ups and downs of players, “and they don’t like to see a lot of change.”*
Hmm.
Make of those comments what you will, but the Royals promoted J.J. Picollo to run the team’s baseball operations because he is supposed to be different than Moore, in particular when it comes to transactions. Owner John Sherman said as much when he announced the move. “It’s about your willingness to change your players,” Sherman said. “I don’t want to use the word churn because these are athletes. But … it’s about being willing and trying to upgrade your team all the time.”
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So who are the organization’s most valuable trade chips?
The Athletic put that question to five people: one pro scout, two front-office executives, an assistant general manager and our own Keith Law. Each was asked to rank the five players in the Royals organization who would bring back the best return in a trade. This is an exercise intended to offer perspective on how some people around baseball view the Royals’ talent.
Royals trade value rankings
Pro Scout:
1. Bobby Witt Jr., SS/3B
2. Brady Singer, SP
3. Scott Barlow, RP
4. Daniel Lynch, SP
5. Gavin Cross, OF
Front-office executive A:
1. Witt
2. Singer
3. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B/DH
4. MJ Melendez, OF/C
5. Nick Pratto, 1B
Front-office executive B:
1. Witt
2. Singer
3. Melendez
4. Lynch
5. Cross
Assistant general manager:
1. Witt
2. Singer
3. Melendez
4. Pasquantino
5. Cross
Keith Law:
1. Witt
2. Melendez
3. Singer
4. Lynch
5. Jackson Kowar, P
The consensus
Based on the five people polled, the consensus board is:
1. Witt (first on all five ballots)
2. Singer (top three on all five ballots)
3. Melendez (four of five ballots)
4. Lynch (three of five ballots)
5. Cross (three of five ballots)
Takeaways
• The Royals have made two massive trades in the last 15 years. One was when Zack Greinke, an established star, demanded out of Kansas City. The other was when the Royals, flush with minor-league talent, cashed in to upgrade the roster with James Shields and Wade Davis. Neither path seems viable at the moment. Cross is the only minor-league player to even crack the top five. The players with value are young guys expected to contribute in the majors. Trade them and you’ve plugged one hole only to open another. Some people might argue they do have an established star on the roster, but …
• Salvador Perez has made seven All-Star teams and won five Gold Gloves. In 2021, he hit 48 home runs and finished seventh in MVP voting. So why did he not appear in anyone’s top five? The pro scout and one of the front-office executives agreed: his age (he turns 33 in May) and contract ($62 million over the next three years) combine to make him difficult to trade. To get anything worthwhile in return, the Royals would have to eat a good chunk of his salary. That doesn’t seem likely.
• Let’s run down the consensus top five. Witt isn’t going anywhere. Singer is 26, and it seems more likely the Royals sign him to an extension than move him. Trading Lynch would be selling low. And if the Royals were one move away from contention, you could make a case to part with Cross, the team’s 2022 first-round pick. But the Royals are not one move away. You might have noticed I skipped one name …
• Melendez is the most interesting player on the list, at least to me. The Royals don’t exactly have an excess of outfield talent, but if they believe Cross can advance through the system quickly and they trust Drew Waters’ progress, Melendez is the player who makes the most sense as a trade chip.
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• But one of the front-office executives had an interesting take on Melendez’s position change from catcher to outfield: “I just don’t think his value is as great as it was in a different position. He’s athletic so he can play left field, but if you have a catcher that’s hitting 20 home runs, there’s way more value in that guy than in left field.”
• I was surprised Pasquantino made only two of the five lists. His value is diminished by his position and defense, but he also had an .832 OPS as a rookie, walked more (35 times) than he struck out (34 times), and he might be the Royals’ best hitter this season.
• A name I was surprised not to see: Frank Mozzicato. He was inconsistent in his first season in the minors, but the Royals drafted him No. 7 overall last year and he’s only 19 years old. Asa Lacy, the fourth-overall pick in 2020, also didn’t appear on any lists.
• As much as anything, these lists reflect the Royals’ lack of high-end talent in the minors after graduating a group of top prospects last season. MLB.com ranked the Royals’ farm system 21st in late August.
• Just for the record: The assistant GM ranked Lynch sixth and Barlow seventh.
• While Barlow is productive, Royals fans shouldn’t expect a massive haul if the team does trade him. Still, he’s a 30-year-old reliever who is under club control for only two more seasons. A trade makes a lot of sense.
• My pick for a player who isn’t on any list but could appear next year: outfielder Drew Waters. I wanted to put second baseman Michael Massey here, but there are too many questions about his bat. Waters, meanwhile, has shown a surprising amount of power since coming to the Royals in a trade with Atlanta. He might be a 20 home-run player.
* In the interest of fairness, here is Moore’s full response to a question about trades quoted at the start of this article: “The fans of Kansas City enjoy the ups and downs of the evolution of a major-league player. They like to follow them, and they don’t like to see a lot of change. And where people would say you’ve got to be more transactional with your roster and move players, we never really did that. We stayed committed to our core group. Our fans understood that and liked that and fell in love with them. Now, we had certain people in our fan base and probably our ownership group that didn’t like it. They wanted to be more transactional. That’s OK.”
(Top photo: Ed Zurga / Getty Images)