LOS ANGELES — It was an eventful weekend across the Pac-12. Before all of the chaos ensued Saturday night, eighth-ranked USC beat Colorado 55-17 on Friday, ensuring the Trojans would exit the weekend unscathed.
Let’s examine some final thoughts from USC’s latest triumph and sift through the rubble from Saturday night as the Trojans enter rivalry week against UCLA.
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1. After allowing an average of 38.3 points over the previous three games, it was logical to expect some changes on USC’s defensive depth chart.
We’ve written in this space often that USC lacks talent and depth on the defensive front, so it was difficult to envision some sort of change there. The secondary, which really struggled the past few weeks, seemed like a safer bet.
There was a slight change against Colorado. Max Williams moved from safety and started in place of Jaylin Smith at nickel, where Williams has spent considerable time in his career. Smith didn’t have his best day against Cal two weeks ago. Latrell McCutchin also played more there, too.
highlights vs Colorado 📼⬇️✌️ pic.twitter.com/vdpwQaDBQQ
— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) November 13, 2022
The coaching staff clearly trusts Bryson Shaw, and he started at safety for the second consecutive game. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, who recruited Shaw to Ohio State, inserted him into the starting lineup in the middle of the season. Shaw isn’t perfect, but he’s been steady and has seemed to be in the right position most of the time since he returned to action. His emergence has allowed Williams to move to nickel.
Ceyair Wright maintained his starting role at corner opposite of Mekhi Blackmon, but we did see Jacobe Covington a bit more after he played well down the stretch against Cal.
There are two things to watch this week (and coming weeks) in the secondary though. Domani Jackson dressed in full pads Saturday night. On Thursday, coach Lincoln Riley said Jackson was someone who could potentially come back toward the end of the season. We’ll see if he is healthy enough to play in these upcoming games and if he can still find a spot in the rotation after missing several weeks.
Also, Williams got banged up during the game and spent the second half on the sidelines in street clothes. So his status will definitely be worth monitoring as the UCLA game approaches, especially since USC seemed to settle on a starting lineup it could trust Saturday and the Bruins have some dangerous receiving threats.
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2. A lot of ink was dedicated to running back Travis Dye and the impact of his injury after the game Friday night, and deservedly so. In recent weeks before his injury, I kept thinking about how Dye’s departure after the season was probably going to be significantly underplayed throughout the upcoming offseason.
Dye’s a pro and his consistency in all aspects of the game was impressive to watch on a weekly basis. There aren’t a ton of backs like that — it’s why Dye was so adored by his teammates and the fans.
Expanding on that initial thought, I think USC could be an attractive destination for a running back in the transfer portal this offseason. There’s no obvious No. 1 guy at the position in Dye’s absence. There will be carries to be had. And defenses will have to devote a ton of resources to slowing Caleb Williams and the passing game, so there are favorable looks in the run game.
So it wouldn’t surprise me if the Trojans go portal shopping there this offseason.
3. USC won by 38 points so it kind of got lost in the shuffle, but Kyle Ford’s two third-down receptions on the Trojans’ first touchdown drive woke up the offense from its early slumber.
USC posted just 8 yards of total offense in the first quarter, and things didn’t look much better when Colorado forced the Trojans into third-and-19 and a third-and-23 situations on their fourth drive of the game. On the third-and-19, the Buffaloes left Ford open underneath and he caught Williams’ pass and took it up the sideline for a 24-yard gain. On the third-and-23, Ford found open space in the middle of the field and turned it into a 42-yard gain.
Keep that @CALEBcsw to @Ford_Kyle6 connection going! 💥 pic.twitter.com/tRy17gFF52
— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) November 12, 2022
Those were two back-breaking conversions and came at a time when the Trojans needed them. After that drive, USC scored touchdowns on seven of its final eight offensive possessions.
That’s the second time in the past three weeks Ford has delivered some pretty significant plays for this offense. He led the Trojans with 73 yards on three receptions. Ford has caught only 12 passes this season, but they’ve been important. He is averaging 19.2 yards per reception.
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4. It was Miller (Moss) Time for the first time since the season opener against Rice. USC’s backup quarterback went 6-of-7 for 78 yards and a score and led two touchdown drives.
Moss’ situation will be one of particular interest over the next month. He was a four-star recruit and a top-100 prospect in the 2021 recruiting cycle. By all accounts, Moss loves USC. He gave his pledge to the program when Jake Garica, a fellow four-star quarterback in the same class, had already been committed for nine months. He signed with the Trojans even though Jaxson Dart joined that class later in the recruiting cycle. And he elected to stay when Williams arrived from the transfer portal.
But there are two realities at the quarterback position: 1) Only one can play, and 2) You can only get better by playing. Moss has thrown 27 passes over his first two seasons at USC. Williams comes back next season, and five-star 2023 quarterback Malachi Nelson is slated to sign with the program in December.
Because of the pandemic and California’s decision to not play high football in the fall of 2020, Moss has not played a full season since 2019 — his junior year of high school.
A year being coached by Riley obviously has its benefits. There will likely be a desire to play, though, so what Moss decides to do with his immediate future will be a source of intrigue come the end of the regular season.
5. I’m glad I’m writing this after watching Saturday night’s games because the picture changed dramatically across the league with Oregon and UCLA both losing.
The Pac-12 went from potentially entering the much-hyped Nov. 19 weekend with three College Football Playoff contenders to just one: USC.
With Oregon’s loss, the Trojans now control their destiny in regard to the Pac-12 title game: Beat UCLA and USC will be playing in Las Vegas on Dec. 2.
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Of course, that’ll be easier said than done. UCLA’s loss to Arizona was flat-out inexplicable (and inexcusable), especially when the stakes and atmosphere were both set to be so great for the USC game.
But even with that loss, this is still a tough matchup for USC, which is a three-point favorite, according to BetMGM. Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and running back Zach Charbonnet are a dangerous backfield tandem and have given USC trouble in the past.
That said, UCLA’s defensive backs haven’t played well this season, and Arizona quarterback Jayden de Laura lit them up Saturday. Now they’re facing one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Williams.
Riley and Chip Kelly both do a really good job of exploiting opposing defenses and finding personnel mismatches, and there will be plenty of those on both sides Saturday. Both teams are fighting for their lives in the Pac-12 title race too, so I expect it to be a close affair.
6. Now that the Trojans are the Pac-12’s last shot at making the Playoff, there will be even more talk about their path and the odds of it happening.
USC is set to go through the gauntlet. It has games against two teams, UCLA (road) and Notre Dame (home), that figure to be in the top 20 of the upcoming CFP rankings. If the Trojans beat the Bruins, chances are they’ll likely face a top-10 Oregon or Utah team in the Pac-12 title game.
Riley’s been in this position before, though. In 2015, he was the offensive coordinator of an Oklahoma team that finished the regular season with wins over No. 4 Baylor, No. 11 TCU and No. 9 Oklahoma State to earn a trip to the College Football Playoff.
In 2017, his first year as the Sooners head coach, he guided OU to victories over 11th-ranked Oklahoma State and a top-10 TCU team in the final month to secure a CFP bid. In 2019, Oklahoma beat 12th-ranked Baylor and No. 21 Oklahoma State to earn a trip to the Big 12 title game, where it beat Baylor (then ranked eighth) to earn its third consecutive Playoff bid. On the flip side, Oklahoma was in a similar spot last year but dropped games to 13th-ranked Baylor and No. 7 Oklahoma State in the final three weeks of the season.
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All of that is to say Riley is no stranger to this situation. Is USC one of the four best teams in the country? No, mainly because its defense has been so troublesome throughout the course of the season. Through 10 games, USC ranks 102nd nationally in yards per play allowed (5.96 yards). That’s why so many are skeptical of the Trojans’ chances of winning three consecutive games against tough opponents.
But consider this: In 2018, Riley guided Oklahoma to the College Football Playoff with a defense that ranked … 102nd nationally with 6.13 yards per play allowed. So he’s not unfamiliar with these circumstances either.
The odds of USC making the CFP are daunting considering its depth on defense, its schedule and the teams ranked ahead of it. It’s being led by a coach that’s navigated that terrain, though, and the fact he has the Trojans in this position coming off a four-win season is impressive.
(Photo: Keith Birmingham / MediaNews Group / Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)