There’s a lot to like about the Devils’ start.
The dominant five-on-five play. The resilience from the tough start, in games when the team falls behind, and from managing key injuries. Jesper Bratt continuing to pop off. Jack Hughes picking up where he left off from his breakout year. Oh, and that 9-3-0 record to lead the Metropolitan Division.
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But another pivotal part of the Devils’ start has been the play of Nico Hischier — between his two-way impact and scoring.
Over the last year, Hischier’s impact, at times, has been a bit quieter. Maybe it’s because he isn’t scoring at the same rate as his teammates, or since it can be trickier to quantify defensive efforts. But it’s the difference-making play New Jersey needs from their captain, a cornerstone who is helping this team become a more competitive squad.
Hischier’s standout play didn’t start this season; he’s coming off a career year where he scored 60 points in 70 games. The center was particularly stellar after the All-Star break when he scored 13 goals and 36 points in 31 games to lead the team. His play continued to be a difference-maker over the last 10, when the team was without their other high-end top-six center, Hughes.
It wasn’t just a breakout year for Hischier on the scoresheet, which is key for a player thought of for his two-way efforts. New Jersey outshot, outchanced and outscored opponents with their leading center on the ice at five-on-five. While there were quite a few hurdles for the Devils last year, Hischier’s defensive impacts were some of his strongest relative to his teammates. On the other end of the ice, New Jersey created a high rate of scoring chances and had even better results to match while he was deployed. And while Hischier’s offensive impact wasn’t as wide of a margin relative to his teammates, it’s because others had great seasons, like Hughes, who he didn’t typically play with at five-on-five.
Now this year, with 12 points in 11 games, Hischier’s scoring at an 88-point pace. When accounting for ice time played, he’s scoring at the best rate of his career so far at 3.40 points per 60. That’s .74 points above last year’s career high. And it’s helped push his average game score of 1.86 to seventh in the league. The 23-year-old’s success over the opening stretch of the year doesn’t just stem from point accumulation — it’s all facets of his game that are clicking. That’s clear in his five-on-five play, as the team is controlling play with him on the ice and generating about 66 percent of the expected goals share with even better results to match.
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It helps that both of the Devils’ top-six centers are elite in transition, so each combination has a skater who can drive play up the ice. Most know about how strong Hughes is at carrying the puck up the ice, but Hischier’s right up there too. Last year, he was at the top of the league with the likes of Johnny Gaudreau, Connor McDavid, Brayden Point, Nathan MacKinnon and Hughes in his rate of controlled entries per 60 and his entries that led to scoring chances. The captain is once again excelling here, leaning on his strong skating ability to bring the puck into the zone with possession to spark plays — whether that’s rush chances or sustained offensive pressure. Last year, his offensive attack really slanted toward the former, but a noticeable change for New Jersey is how much they’re starting to create off the cycle as well. Hischier’s strength on the puck and ability to maintain puck possession is a crucial part of that — and his setup to Fabian Zetterlund puts that on display.
Generally, after Hischier skates the puck into the offensive zone, his contributions are from his passes. He’s an excellent playmaker who tends to generate a high rate of dangerous shot assists to set up his teammates’ shots. That’s why pairing him with a shooter makes a ton of sense. Right now, that shooter is Zetterlund at even strength, who is one of the most frequent shooters in the league; his 20.9 attempts per 60 rank in the top 20 at five-on-five. So far, their skill sets are clearly complementary as Hischier’s put his puck-moving ability on display once again this year.
But unlike years past, he’s unlocking another aspect of his offense: his shot. Hischier always had a dangerous release and finishing talent, he just tends to thread his teammates the puck instead of creating his own scoring chance. When he does shoot, it usually comes from the home plate area. This year, that’s still the case. But now, he’s added more volume — a rate of 15.8 shot attempts per 60, which is quite the upswing from years past when he’s typically been between 10 and 11 shot attempts. And now, Hischier’s individual expected goals rate of 1.23 per 60, when factoring in the quality of those shots, is up .54 from last year.
The results slightly exceed that so far, and will set a career high if he continues at this rate. It also makes him tougher to defend because there’s less predictability to his offensive approach.
It’s possible that Hischier’s really kicked it up a notch to support a line that he’s now the star of. Initially, he was deployed with Ondrej Palat and Bratt in an ideal position to succeed between two high-end wingers. But after Palat’s injury, subsequent lineup shuffling moved Bratt to a new combination. That left the center with Tomas Tatar on one side and Zetterlund opposite. At face value, it’s not a game-breaking top line — it actually ranks pretty poorly around the league in terms of projected game score value added. Even as a second line, it’s not the most enticing on the surface. But their impact has been far better than expected. Through their 58 five-on-five minutes together, this line is driving play with a 72.8 percent expected goals rate that ranks sixth in the league among line combinations ahead of Monday night’s games. The results are even better, with the Devils outscoring opponents 4-1 with them deployed. And a lot of that success stems from the pivotal player down the middle.
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Unlocking this level of offense from Hischier has helped the Devils be in control while the center is deployed, but it’s not all — those efforts start back on the other end of the ice. New Jersey’s one of the best teams at limiting shots and chances against at five-on-five in the entire league so far this season. They’re even better with Hischier on, just like last year, as he helps limit the team’s shot rate against by 2.89 per 60 and expected goals by 0.16 relative to his teammates. The heat map below helps reflect how little opponents generate while he’s deployed, with blue representing areas of shot suppression. That’s particularly impressive and important to the team’s success considering who he is matched up against.
Via HockeyViz
Sure, the Devils haven’t had the toughest schedule just yet compared to others around the league. That’s really out of their control; it’s all about what they do in those minutes. And in his minutes, Hischier’s taking on some of the toughest competition New Jersey faces.
Against the Avalanche late in October, that meant taking on MacKinnon for just under six minutes at five-on-five. In that time, the Devils outshot Colorado nine attempts to three, and limited the danger of those three attempts (.15 expected goals for to just .02 against). Anytime a center can shut down a player as talented as MacKinnon in their matchup, it’s noteworthy.
When Gaudreau came to town, the story was similar — in 6:39 minutes, New Jersey had the shot attempt advantage (7-3) and expected goals (.23 to .05) when Hischier was on the ice against the elite winger.
It’s trickier to control the matchup on the road, so when the Devils were in Edmonton, it’s no surprise the coaches tried to keep McDavid away from the shutdown center. Leon Draisaitl, however, wasn’t as lucky. In nine minutes of ice time during their head-to-head matchup, New Jersey tilted the ice in shot attempts (22-7) and had a major edge in expected goals as well (1.38 to .30). The Oilers had zero high-danger attempts for in that time, while conceding five.
As each of these examples show, it’s not just about limiting top opponents. That’s obviously the idea to an extent, and maybe what would be expected of a fourth line in this setting. But for a first-liner, like Hischier, the goal has to be more than just suppressing chances against. It’s turning defensive plays into offense, and pushing play back up the ice. That’s exactly what the center has been doing with Tatar and Zetterlund so far. Hischier pressures opponents to force turnovers and has the skating ability to transition up the ice with possession. While he’s not the biggest or strongest player, his puck protection skills and evasiveness help him move up the ice and get to work in the offensive zone.
It’s only been 11 games, but Hischier’s off to his strongest start yet. The captain is building on last year’s play to show he’s not only a legitimate top-line center, but a pivotal part of the Devils’ push back to the playoffs. That may not be his only accomplishment if he keeps up this level of play, either — he could find himself in the Selke conversation if his play so far is a sign of what’s to come. Hischier has the skill set to get there, and now he’s putting it together consistently at such a high level.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, AllThreeZones, HockeyStatCards, and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Photo: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)