In 2006, the White Sox’s victory lap following their first World Series win in 88 years, they continued their Grinder Ball Rules advertising campaign from the previous season.
Ten years later, it’s funny to revisit the second run of “Grinder Rules,” only because before that season, the Sox traded their “grindiest” player, outfielder Aaron Rowand, for designated hitter Jim Thome, a nice guy and a great, big slugging machine. The Sox had a good season, but wilted late and didn’t make the postseason. It was a massive letdown and part of the reason why the White Sox were unable to keep their park full of new fans. In their long franchise history, they’ve never managed consecutive playoff seasons.
Like most ad campaigns for failed products, the 2006 “Grinder Rules” campaign was funny in hindsight. But it was a decent enough campaign because it played to the organization’s thoughts about itself and its environment. The White Sox are the underdogs. The South Side is the realest part of town, bereft of tourists and schmaltz.
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We tell a lot of lies about ourselves to make us feel more authentic, more necessary.
And that brings us to this topic: Why are people high on Brett Lawrie?
In a well-written spring training column, Chicago Tribune columnist David Haugh profiled Lawrie and wrote the Canadian infielder, “instantly made the White Sox tougher, brasher and more intense.” It’s not a bad thought and one backed up by a quote from Lawrie’s manager Robin Ventura.
The real question is, and it’s a question that can’t be answered in a late February story, will Lawrie’s “edge” make the White Sox any better if he himself doesn’t play well enough to make a significant impact?
White Sox broadcaster Hawk Harrelson thinks so. Knock you out with a feather, right?
“Brett Lawrie is going to bring a ton of energy,” Harrelson said at SoxFest “A ton of energy. Not a lot. A ton. His upside, his upside is way up. He’s just 26 years old. He’s got a chance to hit 25, 30 home runs. Twenty to 25.”
White Sox fans could engrave 100 bricks outside the Cell with the names of all the players Hawk thought would hit “25, 30 home runs.”
Attitude notwithstanding, by the numbers, Lawrie is an OK hitter and a subpar defensive player.
Last year, in his first and only season in Oakland, Lawrie played a career-high 149 games and put up career-high numbers for doubles (29), home runs (16) and RBIs (60). Those are good statistics. But he also struck out 144 times and he had his worst OPS of his short career. Those are not so good.
That’s about the story of Lawrie’s career. He has the attitude, the reputation and the persona of someone who is putting up better numbers.
A cynic could say with a .260/.299/.407 slash line in 2015, the 26-year-old Lawrie looks like a perfect fit on the White Sox.
Of course, the Sox think he’ll improve in his sixth season in the majors. Teams always think that way. He is still young, but so was Gordon Beckham once upon a time. Sometimes, a ballplayer is just that, a guy on a team who can play professional baseball at the highest level. But the Sox are counting on Lawrie to bolster a lineup that was arguably the worst in the American League last season.
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Lawrie’s promise from his 2011 season is still fresh in some people’s minds, but maybe it was just a little beginner’s luck, like Beckham back in 2009. Lawrie’s .953 OPS in 43 games as a 21-year-old seems to be nothing more than an outlier based on a small sample size. The next four seasons, in which he played between 70 (2014) and 149 games, his OPS was between .706 and .729.
So what to expect in 2016? ZiPS has him as a 1.5 WAR player, compared to 0.6 last season, with pretty similar stats to last season, despite playing in a better offensive home ballpark. The averages from ZiPS, Steamer and PECOTA have him at 1.73, well below three of the other four starting second basemen in the Central.
Defensively, the Sox are selling him as an upgrade at second base, but his value on defense has taken a hit in recent years. FanGraphs has him ranked near the bottom of all second basemen. Lawrie had a -4 Ultimate Zone Rating, according to FanGraphs, in 361 innings at second base last season, compared to -10.3 in 930 2/3 innings at third. Typically, when a negative sign is in front of your value, that’s bad.
So what’s the upside for the White Sox with this move? For one, they’re desperate. As Sahadev Sharma pointed out recently, if Lawrie repeats his 2015 season, he would be a two-win improvement from the Sox’s second basemen last year, who gave the team negative value.
It was a low-risk gamble by the Sox to trade for him — they gave up no-name minor leaguers, which showed his value to the A’s — but he’s not exactly a sure thing like fellow Sox newcomer Todd Frazier, who provides steady defense and a big power bat at third base.
Lawrie has a lot to prove this season. If he finds his stroke and plays a passable second base, he could set himself up for a payday down the road. But if he plays like he has for most of his career, he’ll be another forgettable grinder who gritted his teeth through a losing season on the South Side, a Darin Erstad of the infield.