All this week, I broke down each position group on Michigan’s basketball roster. (I will soon be doing the same for Michigan State.) I evaluated the performance of last year’s group while giving a peek at what the position should look like in 2018-19.
Part 1 evaluated Michigan at center. Part 2 was about the point guards. Part 3 focused on the power forward position. Part 4 focused on Jordan Poole at shooting guard. Today, the final entry — a breakdown of the wings on the roster.
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When Charles Matthews opted to transfer from Kentucky to Michigan, he knew he was starting a long process.
The former five-star recruit had just wrapped up a disappointing season in Lexington. Coming from a generation of prep prospects defined by getting to the NBA as fast as possible, Matthews’ decision meant that he was going to have to do the work.
He underwent hip surgery and sat out for his transfer year while he learned the ins and outs of John Beilein’s offense. After a year of re-learning how to play the game, Matthews finally had a chance to take the floor in 2017-18.
A season that Matthews might have hoped would serve as the culmination of the process ended up being just another step along the way. Matthews demonstrated incredible progress from his lone season at Kentucky, but it was clear that his best basketball was still in his future. He got off to a hot start in November, but struggled to adjust to the well-scouted defense in the Big Ten.
Beilein has consistently preached the little improvements that can transform Matthews from a great athlete into a great player. He jokingly referred to his talented wing as “Bambi on ice” throughout the season. When Matthews finally started landing on two feet and going up strong, just as Beilein had been pleading, success followed. In the NCAA Tournament, he earned Most Outstanding Player honors in the West Regional and Michigan landed in the Final Four.
Matthews finished the year with an offensive rating of 101.6 while using a team-high 25.1 percent of possessions. His offensive rating in Big Ten games was just 90.3 — a mark that ranked 41st among 44 Big Ten players who used at least 20 percent of their team’s possessions. Matthews was Michigan’s least-efficient contributor, but led the team in usage rate.
The hope is that a learning year in a high-usage, low-efficiency role will pay dividends in the form of a high-usage, high-efficiency role in 2018-19.
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The gap between the college player Matthews is and the NBA player he wants to be comes down to his shot. He has NBA-caliber athletic tools, but his ceiling as a basketball player is limited by his shooting stroke. Matthews shot just 31 percent on 3-pointers, 32 percent on midrange jumpers and 55 percent on free throws as a redshirt sophomore.
Those numbers curtail his efficiency and aren’t good enough to make the NBA as a wing guard. His shooting targets as a redshirt junior need to be around 40 percent on midrange jumpers, 35 percent on 3-pointers and 70 percent on free throws. If he hits those goals, the rest of his game will take care of itself.
Beyond shooting, Matthews will look to grow into a more reliable playmaker. He excelled playing out of ball screens early in the season, but struggled to make reads on time as defenses became more complex. That split second of delayed decision-making led to elevated turnover numbers. Matthews turned the ball over on 20 percent or more of his ball-screen and isolation possessions, per Synergy Sports.
It would be unfair to focus entirely on Matthews’ struggles to score consistently. His game bottomed out late in the Big Ten season, but he built it back from the ground up. He took on a lower usage role in New York City to help Michigan to the Big Ten Tournament and then carried the Wolverines for long stretches of the NCAA Tournament.
Those signs of growth in his game late in the season imply that a breakout junior season is attainable.
It was also no coincidence that Michigan’s defense had its best season ever under Beilein with Matthews in the lineup. He is one of the best defensive wings Beilein has coached at Michigan. His ability to “guard his yard,” as Beilein puts it, in individual defensive matchups stood out on a roster that wasn’t otherwise overly athletic.
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Matthews finished the year ranked 21st in defensive rebounding rate in the Big Ten, one of only three players 6-foot-6 or smaller in the top 25. He was able to set the tone for the Wolverines, whether that meant staring down Nick Ward or defending the opposition’s most talented wings.
His decision to return to school went down to the final week, but now Matthews has the opportunity to complete his development process. He’s been through the grind of a redshirt year and the ups and downs of learning on the job. Now he can show off the finished product.
Peripheral depth
Michigan lacks obvious depth at the wing position with Ibi Watson’s decision to transfer to Dayton. When Matthews is on the bench, the Wolverines will typically rely on someone up or down the lineup. That could be Ignas Brazdeikis, Isaiah Livers or Brandon Johns, who were featured in our power forward write-up, or Jordan Poole or Adrien Nunez from the shooting guard preview.
There are options to work with, but it is hard to project who slots into what spot until other roles are more clearly defined. Whatever the plan to back up Matthews ends up being, success at the position will be defined by Matthews’ growth in 2018-19.
(Top photo of Charles Matthews: Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports)