At first glance, the Twins bullpen has done a pretty decent job 70 games into the 2022 season, ranking No. 7 in Win Probability Added, No. 10 in strikeout rate and No. 14 in ERA out of 30 teams. Nothing amazing, but solidly above average. And that may surprise fans who perceive the bullpen as being a much, much bigger problem three months into the schedule.
Especially after Tuesday night’s ugly loss to the Guardians in which the Twins blew a 5-3 lead in the eighth inning and gave up sole possession of first place in the AL Central for the first time since April 23.
Welcome back, big fella.pic.twitter.com/sMOdnJyGjT
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) June 22, 2022
Why the disconnect between the bullpen’s above-average overall numbers and below-average perception, including no shortage of memorable bad moments? I could give you a long spiel about how fans of every team think their bullpen is the league’s biggest mess and their manager has zero clue how to get the most out of relievers, but the truth for the Twins’ bullpen is much simpler.
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The flame-throwing rookie right-hander has been so spectacular that he almost single-handedly lifts an otherwise poor bullpen into above-average status.
Duran has a 2.35 ERA and .194 opponents’ batting average in 24 appearances, striking out 41 batters in 30 2/3 innings while issuing just six walks. He leads MLB in average fastball velocity at 100.6 mph and has the AL’s sixth-highest strikeout rate, whiffing 35 percent of the batters he’s faced. And what’s really remarkable is he’s done almost all of that work in high-leverage situations.
Initially, the Twins planned to ease Duran into the bullpen mix. He missed the majority of last year in the minors with an elbow injury and was a career-long starter prior to being moved to the bullpen in mid-March. No one knew how Duran would hold up physically or how he’d react to full-time relief duties, in terms of both workload and mentality.
It turns out, he loves it.
Duran’s raw stuff is so overpowering that it became impossible for the Twins to delay his rise up the bullpen pecking order. He debuted in long relief, moved to middle relief immediately and was protecting late-inning leads two weeks later. Duran got his first career save chance in his eighth career appearance, less than a month after debuting and less than two months after becoming a reliever.
He’s been the Twins’ best, most reliable reliever since then, while being used in a variety of high-leverage roles, including save chances, one-inning setup work and multi-inning stretches in tight games. It’s been far from a traditional closer role, but by not holding Duran back for the ninth inning of games they lead by one to three runs the Twins have actually squeezed even more value out of him at times.
Duran got (and converted) his first save opportunity on May 1. Since then he’s entered games with the sixth-highest average leverage index of any AL reliever, meaning the Twins have consistently found extremely high-leverage situations to use Duran without limiting him to save scenarios. He’s often been asked to “save” games in the sixth, seventh or eighth inning, versus the heart of lineups.
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Win Probability Added, which measures the impact each plate appearance has on a team’s chances of winning or losing the game, shows Duran as the second-most valuable reliever in the entire league. His usage may be confusing at times to fans accustomed to more traditional closer or setup roles, but the Twins have maximized Duran’s value by deploying him in a wide variety of key spots.
From both a performance and raw stuff standpoint, it’s pretty obvious that he’s already one of the best relievers in the league, combining overpowering velocity with multiple above-average off-speed pitches and shockingly good control for a rookie. Duran is the total package, and to the Twins’ credit, they very quickly realized that and have leveraged his shutdown ability as much as possible.
Jhoan Duran, 103mph Fastball and 90mph Curveball, Overlay.
LOL. Good luck. pic.twitter.com/lYVDSgvEOY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 6, 2022
Look beyond Duran, however, and the rest of the bullpen is pretty shaky.
In ranking No. 7 out of 30 teams in overall reliever WPA, the Twins have been 2.03 wins better than an average bullpen. Duran has accounted for 1.93 of that total all by himself, meaning the rest of the Twins bullpen has produced +0.10 WPA, an almost exactly average mark that would be 18th in MLB. That likely matches fans’ perception of the bullpen a bit more closely.
Take away Duran and the bullpen would also drop to No. 18 in strikeout rate and No. 19 in ERA. Obviously removing the best reliever from any bullpen is going to make it appear a lot worse, but the gap between Duran and the rest of the Twins’ relievers is about as extreme as it gets. Of the 20 other relievers to appear in a game for the Twins, only four have a meaningfully positive WPA.
By trading All-Star left-hander Taylor Rogers about 30 hours before Opening Day the Twins knowingly took a big risk with the bullpen, choosing to cash in his one remaining season of team control for three years of Chris Paddack and two years of Emilio Pagán, plus low-minors pitching prospect Brayan Medina. Rogers has a 2.79 ERA and neutral-ish +0.33 WPA for the Padres so far.
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Duran’s emergence this spring played a part in the Twins’ willingness to trade Rogers and they were right about the rookie’s ability to step into a late-inning role, but Pagán has been too unreliable to fill Rogers’ shoes and longtime setup man Tyler Duffey has struggled so much that he’s gone from fireman to mop-up man.
Duffey was one of the league’s elite setup men in 2019 and 2020 and remained a decent setup man in 2021 while showing signs of decline, but the wheels have fallen off this season. His velocity is down and his bat-missing ability vanished. Duffey has allowed 17 runs in 27 innings and his 5.60 ERA is even worse than it looks because he’s struggled the most in the most damaging situations.
Duffey has surrendered a .450 batting average and 1.476 OPS in high-leverage spots and his -1.31 WPA is second-worst in the AL, so awful that it damn near cancels out the great work Duran has done in producing a +1.93 WPA. Duffey has lowered the Twins’ win probability by at least 20 percent in five games this season, tied for the most of any AL reliever.
If the Twins had the 2019 or 2020 version of Duffey working alongside Duran, they’d have one of MLB’s best bullpens and a multi-game lead in the division. Instead, they have the 2022 version of Duffey, who has no business being used in the late innings right now, and no one has stepped up to fill his (or Rogers’) high-leverage shoes.
Anthony Rizzo – New York Yankees (14) pic.twitter.com/LWrX7VodBq
— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) June 8, 2022
Pagán has a shiny-looking 3.13 ERA in 23 appearances, but he’s been anything but reliable with 12 walks and six homers allowed in 23 innings for a mediocre +0.13 WPA not up to late-inning standards. Joe Smith, the Twins’ lone reliever signing this offseason, has thrived in the middle innings with +0.50 WPA, but a 38-year-old side-armer with a mid-80s fastball is ill-suited for high leverage.
So where does that leave the Twins? Leaning on Duran and searching for other late-inning solutions, basically.
Griffin Jax has emerged as a viable setup man, dramatically changing his pitch mix and approach after getting knocked around as a starter last year. He ranks second to Duran among Twins relievers with +0.93 WPA, throwing 30 percent fewer fastballs and 40 percent more sliders than last season on the way to a 2.70 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 33 innings. Jax is deserving of an even bigger role.
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Jorge Alcala has the best raw stuff in the Twins bullpen other than Duran and he was supposed to be part of the late-inning mix after a strong finish to 2021, but he’s been out since mid-April with an elbow injury. There’s some optimism that Alcala can return in the second half and, if healthy, it’s easy to envision the hard-throwing righty with a 3.39 career ERA taking on a prominent role.
And if the Twins can keep the bullpen afloat for the next month or two, there are several starter prospects who could be called up and used as relievers for the stretch run. Matt Canterino is the most obvious candidate, but Simeon Woods Richardson, Jordan Balazovic, Louie Varland and Ronny Henriquez could also be options. Assuming they aren’t needed to provide rotation help, of course.
Bringing in veteran bullpen help at the trade deadline is always an option and it requires way less prospect capital than trying to bolster a rotation, but this front office has done that just once in five previous chances, adding Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson in 2019. They went 1-for-2 with a double (Romo) and a strikeout (Dyson) on those midseason moves, and similar relievers are available each year.
Kenta Maeda could be an intriguing late-season bullpen option if his recovery from September elbow surgery continues to go smoothly. He recently returned to Minnesota after spending the early stage of his rehab in Florida, and Maeda said he’s hoping to begin throwing off a mound soon. Given his past success as a reliever for the Dodgers, that could be the shortest comeback path.
Using the first few months to sort through relievers and reshaping the bullpen for August and September is a viable strategy and it seems clear that will be the Twins’ approach this season. Duran is a lights-out arm around which to build, and they have some internal options — in the majors, in the minors and on the injured list — with the upside to take on important stretch-run roles.
This bullpen is going to look much different in two months, but it won’t matter if the Twins can’t keep it afloat in the meantime. Making difficult decisions on veterans like Duffey or perhaps even Pagán will be part of that process. They’ve got Duran, but the rest of their bullpen simply isn’t good enough. They need at least two more late-inning options. And they have about a month to find them.
(Photo of Jhoan Duran: Andy Clayton-King / Associated Press)