The PGA Tour moves from Mexico and the Mexico Open to the Wells Fargo Championship at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in Potomac, Md. Last week’s field was on the weak side, and Jon Rahm stepped up and got the win against a field he should’ve dominated. This week’s field is a little stronger and is headlined by last year’s winner, Rory McIlroy. Rory won’t be getting the chance to back up his win at Quail Hollow as that course is preparing to host the President’s Cup in September.
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TPC Potomac is no stranger to the PGA Tour as it has been host to the Kemper Open, Booz Allen Classic, and the Quicken Loans National hosted by Tiger Woods in 2017 and 2018. For data purposes, the Quicken Loans National tournaments are the only ones that will be in my model as TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm went through a major renovation in 2006 that changed how the course played in many ways. Restructuring the irrigation and water in play on the course and changing the scorecard by splitting holes and making a par 5 a long par 4. The two par 5s left on the golf course are long and tough. A par can be considered a good score.
Francesco Molinari entered a real high point in his career when he shot 21-under to win the Quicken Loans National in 2018. He was eight strokes better than the runner-up, Ryan Armour, and I have thrown out that score in some of the models I have been building because it is such an outlier. At that point in time, his game is something we can work with when we look for what type of player should enjoy this course. During that run, Molinari was as straight as an arrow off the tee and was arguably the best ball-striker on the PGA Tour over those six months to end the 2018 season.
Betting Card – All odds from BetMGM
Corey Conners (+2000 or 20-1 to win) hasn’t won since 2019 at the Valero Texas Open, but he’s trending towards breaking through very soon. His game matches up well with what Francesco Molinari was doing in to 2018. Conners has gained some yardage off the tee this year but hasn’t sacrificed much accuracy as he is still above 64% in fairways hit. He is fifth in the field in strokes gained ball striking, and sixth in strokes gained total over his last 24 rounds. He has some experience here, so the difficulty won’t be a surprise.
Abraham Ancer (+3000) comes into this week sixth on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy in 2022. He had a dreadful week with his wedges and around the greens at the Mexico Open, which is the only thing that held him back from contending. I like this price for Ancer when he’s at his best.
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Russell Henley (+3300) is first in the field in strokes gained on approach over his last 24 rounds. He is also inside the top 30 on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy at over 67%. He’s had a solid season so far, losing in a playoff at the Sony Open, followed by three top 15 finishes. His putter let him down at the RBC Heritage, where he missed the cut, but he should bounce back this week.
Brian Harman (+6600) has had a nice season with two top 5 finishes. He is inside the top 20 on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy at over 68%. His irons let him down at the RBC Heritage, losing more than four strokes for the week. He comes into this week seventh in the field in total strokes gained over his last 24 rounds.
Lucas Glover (+12500) is driving the ball well right now. He gained more than six combined strokes between the Valero Texas Open and the RBC Heritage. Last year’s John Deere Classic winner should excel with driving accuracy and ball striking rewarded.
DFS Plays
Abraham Ancer ($10,400) See above.
Corey Conners ($10,100) See above.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,000) crushed a lot of DFS teams missing the cut at the RBC Heritage, but we may now know that he doesn’t have a good feel for the small greens at that tournament. Two of his worst ten putting performances on the PGA Tour have come at the RBC Heritage. I was tempted to bet him this week and may take him for a top 10 if I see a good number on him, but I will most likely be putting him into play in DFS more than betting this week. You can’t ignore that Fitzpatrick is first in the field in strokes gained total over his last 24 rounds.
Russell Henley ($9,300) See above.
Gary Woodland ($9,100) comes into this week, third in strokes gained on approach, and fifth in strokes gained tee to green over his last 24 rounds. He had a solid showing at the Mexico Open, finishing in the top 25 despite not really getting anything going on the greens as he lost 3.5 strokes putting for the week. Between the Valspar, Valero Texas Open and the Mexico Open, he has gained 14 strokes on approach.
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Aaron Rai ($7,900) has back-to-back top 30s in stroke play events and a solid showing at the Zurich Classic. He is inside the top 35 in driving accuracy at over 65% on the year. I think many people are going to lean towards Matt Kuchar with his high finishes lately, and that has me looking more towards Rai at this price point.
Kevin Streelman ($7,700) is coming off of a missed cut at the RBC Heritage, and a 67th place finish at the Mexico Open. I think these recent results will have people overlooking him this week. He is inside the top 10 on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy at over 69%. His around the green game and putting have been holding him back since a top 20 at the Valero Texas Open. He’s going to be in play for me.
Brian Harman ($7,700) See above.
David Lipsky ($7,500) is close to Matt Fitzpatrick in driving accuracy this season at over 64% and has been on a nice little run of form. He has two top 10s in his last three tournaments and gained 10 strokes on approach at the Mexico Open.
C.T. Pan ($7,500) comes into this week eighth in strokes gained on approach over his last 24 rounds and has made four cuts in a row. He was stuck in neutral over the weekend at the Mexico Open, which kept some of my DFS teams from really pushing up the leaderboards.
Anirban Lahiri ($7,400) really found his stroke off the tee at The Players Championship. His irons improved with the help of some lead tape but have not been as consistent as the driver lately. His form can’t be ignored as he has made five straight cuts with three top 15 finishes at all different types of courses.
Matthias Schwab ($7,200) has three top 10s in his last six tournaments and has been a consistent ball striker all season. He can be overpowered by a course that sets up long, but TPC Potomac shouldn’t be an issue for him. I will sprinkle him in as a pivot to Lucas Glover in spots.
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Lucas Glover ($7,200) See above.
Tyler Duncan ($6,900) comes into this week fifth on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy at over 69%. He’s inside the top 50 in the field in strokes gained off the tee and on approach in his last 24 rounds. His recent form has been a bit choppy with two missed cuts in his previous three, but he has four top 35 finishes in his last six tournaments.
Ryan Armour ($6,800) finished a distant second to Molinari in 2018 and sits at the top of the driving accuracy statistic this season at over 72%.
John Huh ($6,500) has made the cut in five out of his last six tries in stroke-play events. He hasn’t contended or finished inside the top 30 since the Honda Classic, but this might be his best chance to do it. He is inside the top 25 on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy in 2022.
Satoshi Kodaira ($6,400) is inside the top 15 on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy in 2022 and is priced too low to ignore this week. He has four top 35 finishes in his last six events.
One and Done
Abraham Ancer is in play for me where I haven’t used him. Corey Conners and Brian Harman are also in play for me this week. Thank you to Tony Finau for doing Tony Finau things and backdooring a second-place finish out of nowhere at the Mexico Open. Who are you going with this week?
My stats come from my go-to site for golf statistics and lineup building: FantasyNational.com. I look forward to bringing you the very best in fantasy golf coverage and betting at The Athletic and interacting with all of you, and maybe building some winning lineups and betting cards together. Please leave your questions below or hit me up on Twitter @CoachEsser.
(Photo of Corey Conners: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)