There were four upsets on Day 1 of the Round of 64. Though I picked my fair share, they apparently were the wrong ones. I did get FGCU over Virginia Tech correct. So that’s a plus.
As for the second round, the odds are usually stacked in favor of the higher seeds. There will be a couple of exceptions, of course.
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Here is my next set of picks for Sunday’s NCAA Tournament games, using BETMGM official numbers. Let’s see if the chalk holds.
If you’re unfamiliar with betting numbers, the general idea is you subtract whatever the number is from the score, and that should make it even. So “South Carolina -22.5” basically means the Gamecocks should win by 23. The .5 allows you to pick a side (South Carolina or Miami) without there being ties. In short, the team with the “-” number next to it is giving the other team that much of a lead in this figurative world.
(Numbers indicate tournament seeds. Picks are against the spread. All times Eastern.)
Greensboro
No. 10 Creighton vs. No. 2 Iowa (-9.5), 1 p.m., ABC
Despite 15 Creighton turnovers and a 27-point game by Colorado’s Jaylyn Sherrod, the Bluejays hit 50 percent of their shots and got the 84-74 win. The Buffaloes hit only four 3s all game and struggled to find a rhythm on offense. Iowa started off a little slow in the opening minutes of its game against Illinois State and then kicked into gear for the 98-58 win. Caitlin Clark (27 points) and Monika Czinano (18 points) combined for almost half of the Hawkeyes’ total points. Creighton needs to shoot as well as it did in the previous round to keep pace with Iowa in order to win. Don’t see that happening. My pick: Iowa
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 1 South Carolina (-22.5), 3 p.m., ABC
Miami kept its ACC tournament momentum going, dropping 78 points on a South Florida team that held opponents to 54.5 points on the season. The Hurricanes shot 53.6 percent from the field and had five players in double figures. South Carolina dominated Howard from start to finish, winning 79-21. The game was essentially over after the first quarter, with the Gamecocks jumping out to a 22-4 lead. Every South Carolina player got a chance to play. To get the win, the Hurricanes need their hot hand to continue and keep the score within reach. We’ve seen what happens to teams when the game slips away. My pick: South Carolina
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No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Iowa State (-5.5), 8 p.m., ESPN2
Georgia showed what it is capable of when it dominates the paint and gets the ball inside. The reward? Thirty trips to the free-throw line (to just four for Dayton). The Bulldogs also used their size to win the battle of the boards, 48-31. Iowa State struggled early against UT Arlington, getting outscored in the first quarter. The Mavericks kept the game close throughout and were within reach in the fourth quarter. But the Cyclone’s Ashley Joens (36 points) was the difference-maker in the eventual 78-71 win. If Georgia sticks to its inside game, the Bulldogs have a shot at an upset. My pick: Iowa State
Spokane
No. 12 Florida Gulf Coast vs. No. Maryland (-9.5), 3 p.m., ESPN
FGCU did what it does best in its first-round matchup against Virginia Tech — it shot a ton of 3s (38 to be exact). Elizabeth Kitley (42 points and eight rebounds) did all she could for the Hokies, scoring more than half of their total points. But Kierstan Bell (22 points) and Co. stuck to their game plan, and it resulted in an 84-81 win. The Eagles are a high-flying, up-tempo team. And the matchup against Maryland is setting up to be a high-scoring affair. The Terps launched 20 3s, hitting 50 percent, and shot 59.4 percent from the field overall against Delaware in their 102-71 win. Five Maryland players scored in double figures. Look for both offenses to come out shooting. But FGCU’s run doesn’t end here. My pick: FGCU
No. 7 Utah vs. No. 2 Texas (-10.5), 5 p.m., ESPN
Considering how well Utah played in the Pac-12 tournament, I should have taken that momentum into account more. The Utes kept it going in the first round, shooting 51 percent from the field, and keeping Arkansas off the glass on the defensive end. They also spread the ball around on offense (20 assists), getting everyone involved. Only one player on the 10-player Utah squad didn’t score. And it will need that same energy going against defensively savvy Texas. The Longhorns easily handled Fairfield, 70-52. And they’ll be able to disrupt the Utes offensive rhythm. Texas comes away with another win. My pick: Texas
No. 8 Kansas vs. No. 1 Stanford (-20.5), 9 p.m., ESPN
Stanford rolled over Montana State, 78-37. And Kansas had little trouble scoring against Georgia Tech’s defense after the first quarter, winning its first-round game 77-58. The Jayhawks were yet another team that shot almost 50 percent or better from the field Friday and will need to maintain that to stay competitive with the Cardinal. And that’s a tall order against Stanford’s length, size and talent. My pick: Stanford
Wichita
No. 10 South Dakota vs. No. 2 Baylor (-11.5), 6 p.m., ESPN2
South Dakota has been a top-10 defense all season. But it poured on the points in its 75-61 win over Ole Miss. Senior Chloe Lamb and Hannah Sjerven both notched 20 points, and the Coyotes shot 55.8 percent overall. Baylor’s strong third quarter against Hawaii (34-8) cemented its eventual 89-49 win. The entire Baylor starting five contributed, with four plays notching double digits. Though the Coyotes certainly will put up a good fight, the Bears are the better all-around team. My pick: Baylor
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No. 9 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Louisville (-10.5), 7 p.m., ESPN
This second-round matchup against Louisville could work out well for Gonzaga. Both teams play stout defense and hold opponents to 55 points, and that’s exactly what the Bulldogs did to Nebraska in their 68-55 win. But the Cardinals are a much better team. They forced 26 turnovers and stole the ball 18 times against Albany, getting easy buckets in transition on its way to an 83-51 win. Defense will be on display, no doubt. But Louisville has the offensive edge. My pick: Louisville wins; Gonzaga covers the spread
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(Top photo of Karli Seay: Julio Cortez / Associated Press)