Each section was updated Sunday night with updated reporting ahead of Monday’s NHL trade deadline.
Kevin Cheveldayoff will likely be forced to trade Andrew Copp and Paul Stastny before the deadline. Just don’t mistake Cheveldayoff for a pure seller between now and Monday at 2 p.m. local time in Winnipeg.
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Teams are calling on Copp and Stastny.
Trading them is a matter of opportunity cost: Missing out on draft picks, prospects or NHL-ready players to hold onto two pending free agents would hurt the Jets next season and beyond.
But don’t forget to follow through on what happens next.
Cap space is at more of a premium than it’s ever been. Fully half of the league is in LTIR and the only Cup contenders who aren’t — Boston, Colorado and Calgary — project to finish the season within approximately $1 million of the $81.5 million salary-cap maximum.
It’s no coincidence that two of those teams are most closely tied to Copp.
I’m still hearing that Colorado is the front-runner for Copp’s services, although finding a fit in terms of acquisition cost is tricky. There is plenty of chatter around Boston as well and that’s where “what happens next” becomes Winnipeg’s biggest focus.
It’s no secret that forward Jake DeBrusk wants out of Boston and that the Bruins want to accommodate his trade request. The 25-year-old left winger has scored 15 goals and 11 assists for 26 points in 57 games this season, bouncing back from a disappointing 14-point 2020-21 season. DeBrusk’s underlying numbers are average and he has scored at a 40-point pace over the course of his career.
DeBrusk carries a cap hit of $3.675 million this season, making him a perfect candidate for a money-in, money-out trade involving either Stastny or Copp.
He is a great example of a player who represents value for this season and beyond; DeBrusk is a restricted free agent this summer under two more years of team control. His qualifying offer is $4.41 million and he has arbitration rights but DeBrusk should be a productive middle-six winger for the immediate future.
But DeBrusk is not where Winnipeg’s options end. Even in a hypothetical situation where Copp, Stastny or both get traded for draft picks and prospects, Winnipeg would suddenly find itself with $7.39 million of cap room it had not accounted for when the season began.
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Moving Copp and Stastny would open up Winnipeg’s options to acquire DeBrusk or a host of other imperfect-but-helpful weapons under team control next season and beyond.
Winnipeg will be making moves between now and the trade deadline. Here’s everything I’m hearing:
Colorado and Boston are the front-runners on Andrew Copp
Colorado had previously been connected to Claude Giroux — an acquisition that would likely have taken them out of the running for Copp or Stastny. Florida has taken over the Giroux race in recent days and now I’m hearing that Colorado is the front-runner for Copp.
Copp would be a perfect fit on the Avalanche third line, offering two-way play and a bit of offence while playing big minutes on the penalty kill. Peter Baugh and I looked at his fit in great depth here, surmising that Copp would play with Alex Newhook and old friend J.T. Compher on Colorado’s third line.
This doesn’t take Boston out of the running, however. DeBrusk is one possibility and a definite fit, cap-wise.
Previous fits like Tampa Bay and Calgary have acquired Brandon Hagel and Calle Jarnkrok. The Lightning are done, while the Flames are running out of cap space.
Florida was once thought to be a possibility but they are the aforementioned front-runners for Giroux. That’s a shame; a Cole Perfetti/Owen Tippett reunion could have been fun.
I really see this as a two-horse race.
Sunday update: Colorado and Boston are still the two front-runners, in that order. Mirtle shared that Toronto kicked tires on Copp, too, but after acquiring Mark Giordano and Colin Blackwell, the Leafs are out of cap room. Finally, Elliotte Friedman mentioned the Rangers on Hockey Night in Canada on Saturday and I believe that’s a possibility, too. The Rangers have plenty of draft capital. Could the Jets hold on to Copp? I still don’t see it — not even after Sunday’s win.
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Paul Stastny is almost as unlikely to sign in Winnipeg this summer as Copp is
Life can happen fast but Copp signing elsewhere is a near certainty. Stastny is the same, meaning he’s also being talked about on the trade market. His destination is just much less certain.
One thought I have: Calgary is down to about $600,000 in projected deadline cap space but can get to within spitting distance of fitting Stastny. The Jets would need to retain half of Stastny’s cap hit and take on an expiring contract UFA like that of Brad Richardson or Brett Ritchie — neither of whom crack Calgary’s top-12 forwards since they acquired Jarnkrok. If there’s a will, there’s a way that works out for everyone.
The overall sense I have on Stastny: Perhaps teams that miss on Giroux (and who missed out when Tomas Hertl signed with San Jose) move to Copp and teams who miss on Copp go to Stastny as a Plan C.
Sunday update: Stastny’s destination remains more difficult to pin down. I’ve heard that Colorado kicked tires on him, although I’ve been unable to verify that. Calgary waived Brad Richardson on Sunday, meaning that the Stastny (salary retained) for Ritchie and futures trade I’ve suggested works now, cap-wise. Tampa Bay added Nick Paul, so I imagine the Lightning are finally done up front.
Winnipeg is already laying the groundwork for moves but be careful what you read into it
The Jets assigned Kristian Vesalainen to the Manitoba Moose on Saturday, leaving them with 12 forwards on the roster. Vesalainen spent a few days with Manitoba in November — only very briefly to make room for Mikhail Berdin — and Saturday’s move implies to me that they need his cap space or his roster spot as part of impending transactions.
Also, as Aavco Cup accurately lays out in the comments: “The Jets by sending down Vesalainen now have $1.563 million in LTI cap space. That means they now have room to recall 2 minimum or near minimum salary forwards tomorrow. This would allow them to sit out both Copp and Stastny and still dress 12 forwards vs the Hawks. Sure looks like they are both being moved.”
It’s also true that players need to be on AHL rosters on trade-deadline day to play in the AHL playoffs but this move comes two days early.
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On that note, Cole Perfetti hasn’t been practising with the Jets and is not a good bet to come off LTIR anytime soon. His Moose career is probably over.
Winnipeg also signed minor league goaltender Philippe Desrosiers to a one-year, two-way $750,000 NHL contract Saturday. This may be insurance if Winnipeg moves a goaltender but right now I think it’s more likely that the Desrosiers move is more about insurance for the injured Berdin. It may also be about rewarding Desrosiers for bouncing between the AHL and ECHL throughout the year. He’s been good.
Finally, Manitoba recalled defenceman Dean Stewart from the ECHL on Saturday. This may similarly fuel speculation but Ville Heinola is with the Jets on emergency recall and not all of Manitoba’s many defencemen are free from bumps and bruises. Stewart may be insurance just as Desrosiers is.
Sunday update: Winnipeg called up Jeff Malott on Sunday, dressing him against Chicago, but Copp and Stastny played too. The reason? Adam Lowry tested postive for COVID-19 on Sunday. Malott told TSN’s Dennis Beyak during the game that he found out about his call-up on Sunday. My speculation? Winnipeg did clear cap space for a reason and the Jets did plan on sitting at least one of Copp or Stastny on Sunday. Lowry’s illness complicated things. But that’s just speculation: me thinking through the reported timing of events and the Jets’ clearing of cap space via the Vesalainen demotion.
Dominik Kubalik, Jake DeBrusk, Dillon Dube and more
Chicago is in full sell mode to the point where Jonathan Toews is in disbelief. There is a sense that nobody in Chicago is safe and if Brandon Hagel can be dealt than so can anyone.
Kubalik is an interesting opportunity for Winnipeg in the same way that DeBrusk could be. He scores at a middle-six rate, averaging 46 points per 82 games, while maintaining an average impact on possession metrics. He’s a good shooter who scored 30 goals as a rookie and is a restricted free agent this summer.
Whereas DeBrusk is under team control for two seasons after this one, Kubalik is eligible for UFA status as soon as the end of next season.
At a $3.7 million cap hit, he would work perfectly for Winnipeg — perhaps not straight across for Copp or Stastny as in the case of a contender, but as a back-fill in a separate trade.
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Dillon Dube is a bit more of a speculative thought on my part than sourced thinking. He’s squeezed down the lineup a further in Calgary than he would be in Winnipeg and his scoring output suffers as a result: 17 points in 58 games for the Flames while not getting a lot of minutes on their third line. He has two more seasons after this one at a $2.3 million before becoming a restricted free agent and, at 23 years old, has room to grow, but has been squeezed even further onto the Flames’ fourth line heading into the playoffs with Jarnkrok in the fold.
Finally, I know several members of the Jets remain fond of Mason Appleton. I have heard of the Jets’ interest in him before and believe they’d make the call if Seattle made him available.
And I expect Seattle to make him available.
Sunday update 2.0: Winnipeg acquired Appleton on Sunday for a 2023 fourth-round pick, as first reported by Elliotte Friedman and confirmed by The Athletic. The 26-year-old power forward took a while to get going in Seattle but has found recent success on the Kraken’s third line, scoring four points in eight March games while maintaining solid possession metrics. More than anything, this is a homecoming of sorts for Appleton who was appreciated in Winnipeg and who will become just the third right-shooting forward on a team that sorely needs them. He is a restricted free agent this summer, perhaps receiving a small raise from his $900,000 salary, and eligible for UFA status in 2023.
Meanwhile, the Hawks are still rebuilding and Kubalik is still good. DeBrusk’s trade request remains in place. If the Jets do move Copp and/or Stastny, look for them to backfill out of a sense of belief in their playoff chances and in their future, too. Dube, by the way, looked great for Calgary on Saturday night. I don’t see why they’d move him unless they had to.
Winnipeg may snag its most substantial college UFA signing since Brandon Tanev
Minnesota will probably trade college star Jack McBain before Monday and Winnipeg will probably not be the team who acquires him. McBain had an excellent fourth and final season with Boston College, scoring 19 goals and 14 assists for 33 points in 24 games. The 6-foot-4 centre is loved for his size, reach, and creativity and I think Winnipeg would have liked him. As of Saturday, that ship appears sailed.
That said, don’t forget about the rest of college players when it comes to Jets signings down the stretch. Winnipeg needs cap-efficient deals and will be more active on the college free-agent market than they’ve been in recent seasons.
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Winnipeg will consider top college free agents like Ben Meyers, Jake Livingstone, Riese Gaber, Brendan Bussi and Parker Ford, among others. I believe they’ll have a bit of success and I continue to believe that Meyers is the best fit.
As I wrote last week:
Corey Pronman projects University of Minnesota centre Ben Meyers to have an NHL career in a third-line role. Winnipeg will have had many viewings of Meyers, given that he’s a teammate of the Jets’ 2021 first-round pick Chaz Lucius. Pronman likes Meyers’ vision and playmaking ability while questioning if the 5-foot-11 Minnesotan might need to play left wing at the NHL level. Meyers leads the Golden Gophers with 34 points in 29 games this season.
Sunday update: Arizona acquired McBain on Sunday, trading a second-round pick to Minnesota and is now working on a contract. I suspect McBain’s No. 1 priority was finding a team with the most opportunity down the middle. Arizona offers that.
Brenden Dillon, Ville Heinola, Dylan DeMelo or Nate Schmidt: Who’s most likely to move?
I’ll answer my own question by saying Brenden Dillon.
Dillon’s $3.9 million cap hit is more manageable than Schmidt’s $5.95 million, while his hard-nosed style and solid mobility make him a solid option for teams who feel they missed out on Ben Chiarot.
Of course, Dillon’s cap hit is also an argument for Winnipeg to keep him moving forward but Chiarot yielded such a package from Florida — prospect Ty Smilanic, a first-round pick in a deep 2023 draft and a fourth-round pick in 2024 — that Winnipeg should explore it. I don’t think Dylan DeMelo has that same open market appeal — Winnipeg did well to acquire him for a third-round pick and then extend him.
Finally, I know that teams have called on Ville Heinola before and expect that they will again. Whether it’s now or this summer, Heinola or a veteran in front of him or some combination, the Jets will address their logjam on defence — and there’s no guarantee their prospect pool escapes unscathed.
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Sunday update: No changes to report on this one. Interesting to me that the Jets didn’t run with 11 forwards and seven defencemen, dressing Heinola against Chicago so as to keep Copp or Stastny out of the lineup. They won, though, and nobody got hurt. Guess they know what they’re doing.
(Top photo of Andrew Copp: Jack Dempsey / AP Photo)