Josh Archibald is back with the Oilers. When he’ll be playing again for them — and for how long — remains much murkier.
The right winger took part in his first full practice with his teammates on Sunday after being given a clean bill of health from myocarditis. Archibald hasn’t played all season because of an inflammation of the heart muscle, which was diagnosed in September.
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“It’s as if it never happened,” Archibald said, adding he’s been told there are no foreseeable long-term health issues.
Archibald deemed himself ready to play and could be activated off LTIR soon.
But because he remains unvaccinated — something he gave no indication he’d be willing to reconsider — his effectiveness to the Oilers could be quite limited.
Archibald called it a “personal decision” not to get vaccinated and said, “I wouldn’t change a thing.”
Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft said the winger’s choice isn’t driving a wedge through the dressing room.
“It’s a complete non-issue,” Woodcroft said. “He’s a valued teammate. Guys are happy to see him.”
The truth is Archibald being back with the team isn’t simply all rainbows and sunshine. There’s a lot more to it than the Oilers possibly getting a boost from a veteran forward late in the season.
Archibald’s potential impact
Let’s start with the hockey stuff. Archibald is a fourth-line player, so let’s not go nuts. If healthy, Archibald has the potential to be an effective and useful player.
He scored 12 goals in 62 games and chipped in seven more in 52 contests last season, and was the Oilers’ most-used forward on one of the league’s better penalty kills. Offensive production has been tough to come by among fourth-liners, and the penalty kill has been dreadful for a couple of months. Archibald could help on both fronts, all while providing the type of physicality the Oilers only have in short supply up front.
The Oilers are still missing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi and Zack Kassian to injury. When the forward ranks are completely healthy, Archibald is probably No. 11 or 12 on the depth chart. So, he’ll only likely move the needle so much — even if he’s at his best. Of course, even when available, Archibald is only a part-time player anyway because of his vaccination status.
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Potential timeline
Archibald is just getting going here. Sunday was team practice No. 1, so a concrete timeline hasn’t been locked in.
Having him play this week — in Calgary on Monday, and at home Wednesday against the Capitals and Saturday against the Lightning — doesn’t appear likely. Things will probably become clearer on that front in a couple of days.
The following week, at home against three non-playoff teams — Detroit, Buffalo and New Jersey — is the last chance to get Archibald into a game before the March 21 trade deadline. That’s a big date.
The benefit of Archibald playing soon
After Monday’s game in Calgary, the Oilers have five straight home matchups before the deadline. There are no restrictions or quarantine issues if they want to get Archibald back into action.
If Archibald is healthy enough to play in any of those contests, it would be the perfect opportunity for the Oilers to showcase him for a trade to a U.S.-based team. Though Archibald has some value to the Oilers as a healthy, regular player, that value is all but neutered as a part-time player.
Half of the Oilers’ last 20 games are on the road. Should they make the playoffs, it’s more likely than not they’ll play an American team. Archibald is basically ineligible to play in the United States because he’d have to quarantine upon his return to Edmonton because he’s unvaccinated. That’s why a conditioning stint is out of the equation.
Archibald would be more valuable to a Metropolitan or Central Division team that’s unlikely to face a Canadian opponent in the playoffs.
Given that Archibald is an unvaccinated fourth-line player who hasn’t played all season and a pending UFA, don’t expect much of a return for the Oilers if they’re able to peddle him to another team. A late-round pick is probably the bar here, which would be a tough break for the organization from an asset-management perspective considering GM Ken Holland protected Archibald in last summer’s expansion draft.
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Salary cap and roster implications
Archibald has been on LTIR since the start of the season, which has given the Oilers the ability to reinvest his $1.5 million cap hit toward the active roster (while still paying him). Once Archibald is activated, things start getting hairy.
He makes just enough money — double the league minimum and $375,000 more than the allowable amount to be buried in the minors — to potentially make life challenging for Holland and his staff.
In the ever-changing world of the Oilers’ cap picture, they have $1.97 million in cap space as of Sunday afternoon, per PuckPedia. However, that’s before Stuart Skinner and his $750,000 cap hit is recalled, which Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft said is happening for at least Monday’s game because Mike Smith is dealing with an illness.
The bigger issue is right winger Zack Kassian (broken jaw) is expected to come off LTIR at some point this month. He’s already started practising with the team. And Kassian has a $3.2 million cap hit, so the Oilers will already have to get creative to activate him if no one else is added to LTIR.
If Archibald is ready to play before Kassian ahead of the deadline, and the Oilers don’t have an open roster spot, the easiest thing to do would be to waive and demote Kyle Turris ($1.65 million).
One thing to note is the Oilers can suspend Archibald without any cap implications for time missed because of COVID-19-related absences (see: time while the team is in the United States) once he’s been activated. They could then fly in a player from Bakersfield — likely at the league minimum — when they’re playing American-based opponents on the road.
However, as long as Archibald is on the active roster, the Oilers are committing to a part-time player while not having his $1.5 million as part of the LTIR pool — money that could be used to augment the team at the trade deadline, for instance.
The timing of Archibald’s potential return, considering his vaccination status, sure isn’t making life easy for the organization.
(Photo: Curtis Comeau / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)