There are many reasons to be excited about the St. Louis Cardinals and the 2022 season, whenever that begins. Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina are back for another year. Nolan Arenado is poised for better offensive numbers after his inaugural year in Cardinal red. Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson will be healthy, and Cardinals fans will get their first taste of Steven Matz donning the birds on the bat.
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But perhaps the biggest area of optimism pertains to the Cardinals’ young outfield, one that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and the rest of the front office meticulously put together — and one that showed just how much of a powerhouse it can be when its three starters are healthy.
In trading for Tyler O’Neill in 2017 and developing Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson through their minor-league system, the Cardinals’ front office boasts one of baseball’s most electric outfields. It came with controversy, after Mozeliak traded a promising young talent in Randy Arozarena to land Matthew Liberatore, now the club’s top pitching prospect. It also came with a series of offensive growing pains for O’Neill and Bader, though their strong defensive capabilities bought them the extra time they needed to grow into the game. The early returns on Carlson have been bountiful, and it seems he’ll have right field locked up for years to come.
Thanks to injuries, the Cardinals saw just five combined games in the first half of the 2021 season from their expected starting outfield. That also aligned with the timeframe when the team’s offense was plummeting, starting pitchers were dropping like flies and relievers couldn’t throw strikes. But once the outfield became healthy, something shifted. By the end of the season, the trio of Carlson, Bader and O’Neill ranked among the top three in outfield WAR (per FanGraphs) in the sport. Based on how each player ended the 2021 season, optimism is high they will only continue to climb higher.
Here’s why.
Tyler O’Neill, LF
The optimism surrounding O’Neill’s future in St. Louis is palpable, to say the least. O’Neill wrapped up the 2021 season — the best of his career — with his second consecutive Gold Glove Award and slugged a career-high 34 home runs. Throughout 2021, the 26-year-old showed a continuous progression of improvement and maturation, despite missing a good portion of the first half with various injuries. His speed and defensive capabilities were always evident, but it was his transformation from a two true-outcome hitter to a more versatile and multifaceted offensive threat that truly set his season apart from years prior.
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Let’s compare O’Neill’s hitting trends from 2019 (putting the 60-game 2020 season aside) to how he finished the 2021 season. In 2019, O’Neill had an expected batting average (XBA) of .216 and an expected slugging percentage (XSLG) of .379. His average exit velocity was 89 mph and his barrel percentage on balls hit was a mere 6.8 percent. O’Neill’s hard-hit percentage was 37.2, his K-rate was 35.1 percent and he walked just 6.6 percent of the time.
O’Neill’s marks in 2021 weren’t just personal bests. They jumped atop league leaderboards in several categories. His XBA boosted to .279 and his XSLG to .583, ranking in the top 4 percent of the league. His hard-hit percentage (52.2) ranked in the top 7 percent, his average exit velocity (93 MPH) was among the top 6 percent, and his barrel percentage (17.9) was in the top 3.
“I’m just trying to stay on the plate. That’s a really big thing for me,” O’Neill told The Athletic in late September, when asked how he made such a vast change. “I really lowered my chase rate and stopped swinging at stuff I shouldn’t have been swinging at. In turn, that’s going to lead to better hitter’s counts and more pitches over the middle of the plate.”
O’Neill’s chase rate in 2021 was 27.5 percent, down from his 2019 mark of 35.7. While it’s still higher than the Cardinals would like, it did rank league average among hitters last season. His strikeout rate (31.3 percent) and walk rate (7.1 percent) could see further improvement, but it’s much easier to accept those numbers when the production levels across the board saw the rise that they did.
After quickly making a name for himself as one of the top corner outfielders in the National League, O’Neill needs to continue keeping up with the offensive trends that brought him so much success in the second half of last season, specifically in September when he played a critical role in launching the Cardinals to an unlikely playoff berth. September was by far the best month of his career; he slammed 13 home runs and racked up a .328 average and 1.108 OPS while landing NL Player of the Month honors. It also provided a tantalizing window of O’Neill’s true potential. If he can match that production and stay healthy, as injuries have riddled him in the past, there’s no reason to doubt he could emerge as a legitimate MVP candidate as early as this upcoming season.
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Harrison Bader, CF
Bader’s start to the 2021 season was especially frustrating for the center fielder, who spent the majority of the offseason with several goals he was determined to accomplish. His biggest emphasis was improving his numbers against right-handers, specifically with breaking balls. He was also determined to win his first career Gold Glove, as he had never won one, despite his play as one of the most defensively sound center fielders in the NL.
Yet Bader played just 31 games in the first half of the season due to two separate injuries. He began 2021 on the injured list with a forearm injury. When he returned, he played in just 22 games before sustaining a right rib fracture diving for a fly ball.
As a result, Bader needed a strong second-half campaign to solidify himself offensively. He could have pressed or felt pressure to perform immediately, especially after missing such a large chunk of the season. But one thing that has stuck with the 27-year-old over time is patience.
“When it comes to offense, which, in my opinion, is totally about feel and confidence, the work is there, but it just takes a little bit longer,” Bader explained in an interview with The Athletic in September. “When I look back at my four years here so far, I genuinely do believe I picked up on one solid thing, at least offensively, each season. It’s not all-encompassing yet, and it has taken me some time to really understand my feel, understand my confidence and understand the things I do really well and things I don’t do well. But I feel like especially this year, I have really done a good job of taking those things and using them in my arsenal.”
So he stuck with a plate approach where he focused more on pitch selection and limiting his chase rate and was able to cash in on some pretty encouraging results. His second-half numbers featured a .281 average, .469 slugging and .800 OPS. He clubbed 10 homers and 17 doubles and saw substantial progress in his success against off-speed offerings. His late-season charge is widely attributed as one of the main reasons the Cardinals were able to fire off 17 wins in a row and snag the final NL postseason spot.
And of course, he did eventually nab that first career Gold Glove, joining O’Neill, Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt and Arenado as the record-setting five Gold Glove winners for the Cardinals.
Bader will be a free agent in 2024 and will likely receive a raise in arbitration this year, whenever the lockout is lifted and the new collective bargaining agreement is established. He has cemented himself as a premier defender with elite sprint speed. If he can continue posting offensive numbers similar to those from the second half of last season, he could make an early case for an extension.
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Dylan Carlson, RF
Of all the outfielders, it might be Carlson who has the highest ceiling. Just 23 years old, Carlson shined in his first full professional season and showed his high marks as a top prospect may not have even told the full story of his capabilities.
Carlson posted a formidable .266/.343/.437 slash line over 149 games last season. His quick adjustment to the major-league level was impressive enough, but Carlson didn’t just have to adjust to his primary position in right field. Multiple injuries to O’Neill and Bader led to Carlson shuffling around the outfield. Offensive inconsistencies led to him being shuffled around the batting order as well; he saw time in both the latter half of the order and the leadoff spot.
Still, the rookie was able to sustain consistent and reliable production, finishing third in NL Rookie of the Year Award voting. While Bader, O’Neill and Goldschmidt are often credited for the Cardinals’ historic success in September, Carlson played a key role as well, with a .293 average, .855 OPS, five doubles and five home runs.
In fact, the switch hitter was pretty even-keel throughout the year, minus the occasional slump, which is to be expected from a then-22-year-old rookie. He ranked below league average in many of the key analytical-based stats (such as average exit velocity and barrel percentage) that the Cardinals like to use in terms of evaluation, but those are aspects that are only going to continue being emphasized, and the hope is that Carlson will progress as such.
Carlson has bonded well with Goldschmidt and Arenado, among other veterans. He is a steady, confident presence in the lineup with the capabilities to command an outfield, though he works well in communicating with Bader. Not slated to be a free agent until 2027, the Cardinals are confident Carlson’s development as a homegrown talent will continue with him growing into a household name.
(Photo: Michael McLoone / USA Today)