Only a few days after the conclusion of the 2021 season, A.J. Hinch went on a morning radio show. The first question he was asked was not about the Tigers’ year of progress, nor was it about the free-agent frenzy ahead.
Instead, the question was about Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, the Tigers’ top two prospects who are both expected to enter spring training banging on the door to the major leagues.
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Later that day, at an end-of-season news conference, Hinch was asked a similar question about the two young players. How might their presence impact the way the Tigers construct their roster this offseason?
“That will be one of a hundred,” Hinch said, recounting the radio question. “So now we’re up to two.”
We have been speculating about Torkelson and Greene in this space for a while. But consider this the first article officially diving into whether they will — or should — make the Opening Day roster.
As it stands today — in the dead of winter, with snow on the ground and baseball in a lockout — multiple team sources have insisted Greene is expected to get every opportunity to make the major-league roster come spring training.
Here’s what Tigers general manager Al Avila said about that idea at the same end-of-year news conference.
“You guys have written plenty about him possibly making the club out of spring training,” Avila said. “And I’m not gonna comment on that. But at some point you can count on Riley Greene being in our outfield. I’m not gonna say when or when we think. But at some point in the not-too-far distant future.”
The translation here seems rather obvious. The Tigers would be foolish to promise a roster spot to a 21-year-old. But they sure seem to like the idea of Greene beginning the season playing center field in a big-league uniform.
For further evidence, look to the fact that the Tigers have yet to take any action in upgrading their outfield.
As for Torkelson, the exact plan might be a bit more unclear. Although he is a highly polished hitter, the images from his 1-for-27 spring training slump last year still linger. He went on to destroy minor-league pitching as virtually every talent evaluator in existence would have expected.
But in 40 games at the Triple-A level — despite strong power and on-base numbers — Torkelson hit only .238. The prevailing thought is Torkelson could benefit from an additional month or so to marinate in Toledo. In the meantime, the Tigers can play Jonathan Schoop and Miguel Cabrera at first base as they did for most of last season.
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But if Torkelson comes out of the gate hot in spring training?
It sure seems like the Tigers would be plenty happy to hand him a jersey.
“I hope they put all kinds of pressure on us for Opening Day,” Hinch said. “But there’s a lot that has to happen between now and then before we have to necessarily make a first decision.”
That is where things seem to stand now. But there are more factors to consider. Since that press conference, both Torkelson and Greene left the Arizona Fall League with injuries. Greene was dealing with a concussion and Torkelson suffered a right ankle sprain. Both players, though, are expected to be ready for spring training.
If that proves to be true, it leads us to the dreaded question of service time. In the absence of a collective bargaining agreement, we cannot be 100 percent certain of what rules will apply for the 2022 season. In the past, Avila has said service time is not a consideration in how the Tigers make decisions on prospects.
Still, the idea of keeping a prospect down for a few weeks in order to gain an extra year of team control down the line can be hard for front offices to ignore. In the shortened 2020 season, the Tigers did not place star pitching prospect Casey Mize on the Opening Day roster despite Mize’s strong performance in both spring training and the subsequent summer workouts.
At the time, Avila was asked what Mize still had to work on. “He’s got a lot of pitches,” Avila said then. “When you have that many pitches, obviously it’s more work.”
The Tigers did not promote Mize for his MLB debut until Aug. 19 of that year, late enough that Mize did not earn a full year of service time. The Tigers, though, might say they were right in believing Mize needed more time. He posted a 6.99 ERA in seven MLB starts that season.
These days, the Tigers are much closer to a win-now mentality than they were in 2020. Perhaps that is even more reason to believe service time will not be among the front office’s biggest considerations.
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Instead, the central question could be simple: Are they ready?
“I think their performance this season warranted some consideration,” Hinch said. “I think what they do next year is gonna matter. I’m kinda curious how they’re gonna respond next February when we get to camp, and now all eyes are on them.”
Both Torkelson and Greene proved their merit with little doubt last year in the minor leagues. Torkelson had a .267 average, a .383 on-base percentage and 30 home runs across three levels. Greene hit .301 with a .387 on-base percentage and 25 home runs. He hit .308 over 40 games in Triple A.
To match the numbers, scouts have raved about both hitters since Torkelson was at Arizona State and Greene was a prep star in Florida. Both hitters have the ability to work counts and hit to all fields. Greene can struggle with swing and miss, and Torkelson can at times almost be too patient at the plate. Neither flaw has kept them from producing offensively.
In the field, Greene has proven doubters wrong about his defensive ability. He moves well and has terrific instincts, though he still must prove for certain he can play every day in Comerica Park’s vast center field. Torkelson’s foray into learning third base is virtually over, and first base is his clear big-league home.
Still, it’s worth remembering this is the major leagues. Willie Mays started his career 0-for-23. Ken Griffey hit .189 through his first 14 games. There’s a long line of successful players who were not stars right out of the gate.
Last season, Mariners prospect Jarred Kelenic checked boxes similar to Torkelson and Greene, but he was demoted back to Triple A after an 0-for-39 slump.
“They aren’t finished products yet,” Hinch said. “No matter what you do in the minors, that step to the big leagues is the biggest step that you’re ever gonna make.”
There’s no guaranteed way to know how any player will respond to their first taste of life in The Show.
But there are plenty of detailed projection systems that can still give us an informed view of what Greene and Torkelson could do as rookies.
FanGraphs’ ZiPS projection system uses heaps of data — including minor-league information dating back to the 1960s — and compares players’ baseline performance to baselines for every player in the database at “every point in their career.”
ZiPS isn’t designed to accurately predict how much playing time Torkelson and Greene will receive in 2022. But it does estimate their production if they were to play something close to a full MLB season. Here are the numbers:
| Player | Age | AVG | HR | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
21 | .268 | 23 | .335 | .465 | 117 | 2.9 | |
22 | .249 | 28 | .334 | .489 | 122 | 2.8 |
Two guys with 20-plus homers? Two players close to 3 Wins Above Replacement? Sounds like precisely what the Tigers need.
So from the eye test to the track record to the statistical models, there are ample reasons to believe Torkelson and Greene could be productive big-leaguers from Day 1. (A fun sidenote: We must also consider the possibility that the MLB season could be delayed due to the work stoppage. In that case, the minor-league season is still expected to begin as scheduled. That means Torkelson and Greene could conceivably play a short time in Triple A and still make the Opening Day roster.)
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Much is uncertain, and clouds will not dissipate from the crystal ball until well into spring training.
The Tigers’ brass will ultimately make this call.
But pending injury or a troublesome spring slump, it could be very difficult for the Tigers to break camp any other way.
“It’s gonna be big drama, and you guys are gonna ask a lot, and I love that,” Hinch said. “I love the pressure on these guys. And then we’ll see where it takes us.”
(Top photo: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)