I’ll have much more to say on the labor dispute in the days, weeks and (gulp) months ahead, but for now know this:
The dispute is not about competitive balance, competitive integrity or any other high-minded concept the owners and players might use to justify their intentions.
It’s about money.
The late union leader Michael Weiner used to tell colleagues that the owners are not bad people just because they want to pay players less, and the players are not bad people just because they want to earn more. It’s America, it’s capitalism, it’s labor-management relations. And for all commissioner Rob Manfred’s talk in his letter to fans about how players have it so good – When we began negotiations over a new agreement, the Players Association already had a contract that they wouldn’t trade for any other in sports – the players clearly do not agree, knowing their income has gone backward in the only context that matters to them, their own sport.
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A study by the Associated Press in April revealed that the average major league salary dropped 4.8 percent to just under $4.17 million on opening day from the start of the previous full season in 2019, and 6.4 percent since the start of the 2017 season, when it peaked at $4.45 million. There were qualifiers: The ’21 figures did not include the salaries of three well-paid players who were not on Opening Day rosters for procedural reasons, and the average likely fell slightly because of the expansion of rosters from 25 to 26 and the additions of minimum-salary players in the extra slots. But to players, the message was clear. Their salaries were not keeping pace with the sport’s revenues.
We don’t know exactly what those revenues are because only two of the 30 teams, the Atlanta Braves and Toronto Blue Jays, are publicly owned and required to open their books. We also don’t know the extent of the money the owners are earning from ancillary business ventures related to baseball. We do know the players’ salaries, and surely they are not suffering. But that doesn’t mean they’re getting their fair share.
Manfred mentioned in his letter that teams committed $1.7 billion in November to free agents, breaking the prior record by nearly four times. He also said that by the end of the offseason, teams will have committed more money to players than in any offseason in the league’s history.
Well, the money spent early is partly a reflection of the quality of this year’s free-agent class, and partly a reflection of the urgency teams and players showed with the lockout looming. Six players (Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Javier Báez, Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman) accounted for nearly 60 percent of the $1.7 billion. Just because the system worked for those players does not mean it is working as a whole.
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Get ready for days, weeks and (gulp) months of this, both parties presenting their versions of the truth and blaming each other for all that ails the sport. As The Athletic’s Jayson Stark wrote, the players and owners are not even talking about the one issue that might matter most to fans, rules adjustments intended to improve the on-field product. Nope, sorry. It’s about money. It’s always about money. No matter how anyone frames it, no matter what anyone says.
Freddie and Matt, Matt and Freddie
The trade destination for A’s first baseman Matt Olson very well could be tied to the outcome of Freddie Freeman’s free agency. Olson is a native of Lilburn, Ga., a suburb of Atlanta. He likely would be the Braves’ No. 1 target if Freeman departs for the Yankees or Dodgers, the teams believed to be most interested in him. The A’s, though, will be in a position of great leverage, drawing interest in Olson not just from clubs that miss out on Freeman, but others as well.
It hardly qualifies as news that the Braves explored first-base alternatives such as Olson and free agent Anthony Rizzo in November while Freeman lingered on the open market; Freeman, at the moment, is not a member of their team. Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos needs to do his due diligence, and make sure he can react quickly the moment he senses Freeman might depart.
Olson, who will play next season at 28 and is under club control through 2023, would seem almost an ideal replacement, if necessary. He had more home runs than Freeman (39 to 31) and a higher OPS-plus (153 to 133) last season, and also won Gold Gloves at first in 2018 and ’19. Of course, Olson does not have the same history with the Braves that Freeman does, and would cost the team top prospects, as opposed to just money.
Most of the industry still expects Freeman to stay with the Braves. Yet, his return no longer can be viewed as inevitable. One rival executive says the fact Freeman remains unsigned is a “slap in the face,” considering that he is a homegrown talent who won the NL MVP in 2020 and helped the team win the World Series in ’21. For Freeman, a native of Orange County, Ca., the Dodgers (or Angels) would appear a more natural fit than the Yankees. But just as the Braves are envisioning how they might replace him, he surely is envisioning what it might be like playing for a team other than the Braves.
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At this point, how can he not be?
Verlander situation remains a mystery
As pointed out by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, the Astros did not officially announce Justin Verlander’s two-year, $50 million free-agent contract before the start of the lockout, meaning the deal can’t be completed until a new collective-bargaining agreement is reached.
At least two other players – pitchers Nick Martinez (four years, $20 million, Padres) and Jordan Lyles (one year, $7 million, Orioles) – are in similar limbo, but only because they ran out of time. Martinez had yet to complete his paperwork and get the final results of his physical, while Lyles has yet to take his physical, sources said.
Time should not have been an issue for Verlander, who agreed to his deal on Nov. 17, two weeks before the expiration of the CBA. The logical conclusion is that an issue arose with his physical, but Verlander did not respond to a request for comment on Thursday and teams cannot comment on players during the lockout.
Verlander, who would pitch next season at 38, underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2020 and spent the entire ’21 season rehabbing. The Astros tracked his recovery while they still had him under contract. He drew strong reviews after becoming a free agent and showcasing for teams on Nov. 8. Perhaps a problem surfaced in an MRI that was part of his physical.
Technically, Verlander remains a free agent. Teams and players, after reaching agreement, sometimes restructure deals when the results of a physical warrant adjustment. For now, the Verlander situation remains a mystery, unlikely to be resolved until after a new CBA is in place.
The difficulty of acquiring Ketel Marte
The Marlins, according to sources, asked the Diamondbacks about catcher Carson Kelly before acquiring Jacob Stallings from the Pirates. After the lockout, the teams could renew talks on another Diamondbacks player in whom the Marlins have expressed interest – center fielder Ketel Marte.
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Teams discussing quality players with the Marlins often inquire about right-hander Pablo López, who had a 3.07 ERA in 20 starts last season but was out from July 11 until the final day with a rotator-cuff strain; or righty Max Meyer, the third pick of the 2020 draft who had a 2.27 ERA at Double A and Triple A.
The Diamondbacks, who acquired righty Zac Gallen from the Marlins for infielder Jazz Chisholm at the 2019 trade deadline, almost certainly would want another starting pitcher in a Marte trade, and other players as well. Marte, 28, is owed $30 million over the next three seasons in a below-market deal that includes two club options. Under general manager Mike Hazen, who took over in October 2016, the Diamondbacks have not had a more valuable trade piece.
That’s right, Marte likely would command more in a deal than first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who was 31 and under control for only one more season at $14.5 million when the Diamondbacks traded him to the Cardinals in December 2018; and righty Zack Greinke, who was 35 when the Diamondbacks sent him to the Astros at the ’19 deadline, with the Astros assuming $53 million of his remaining salary.
Marte, a switch-hitter, was out with a strained right hamstring last season from April 8 to May 19 and a strained left hamstring from June 28 to July 31. He returned from the second injury to produce an .867 OPS in the final two months, and finished with a .909 OPS overall.
The Diamondbacks, after signing closer Mark Melancon to a two-year, $14 million contract, clearly are not conceding the 2022 season. They would need a monster package to move Marte.
For Brewers, Renfroe wasn’t only option
Before acquiring Hunter Renfroe from the Red Sox, the Brewers dangled Jackie Bradley Jr. in trades for a variety of other outfielders, including the Blue Jays’ Randal Grichuk, sources said. Unlike the Renfroe deal, in which the Brewers parted with Bradley and two infield prospects, a Grichuk trade would have been one-for-one.
So, why lose the prospects, infielder David Hamilton and Alex Binelas, who ranked 16th and 17th for the Brewers respectively, according to MLBPipeline.com? Because in the Bradley-Renfroe exchange, the Brewers created greater payroll flexibility for 2022, saving about $10 million. The Bradley-Grichuk swap likely would have been a financial wash. And Renfroe was just more appealing overall.
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Both Renfroe and Grichuk are entering their age 30 seasons, but Renfroe is coming off the better year (112 OPS-plus to 89), and his contractual status gives the Brewers a measure of added flexibility. Grichuk is locked into $9.3 million salaries in each of the next two seasons, while Renfroe is projected to earn $7.6 million in arbitration in 2022 before becoming eligible for the process a final time in ’23. He potentially would have greater trade value if the Brewers faced a financial crunch, particularly if he and Grichuk were similar to what they were in ’21.
It is not known which other clubs the Brewers spoke with about Bradley, but the Padres’ Wil Myers would have been the same type of play as Grichuk. Myers, too, is entering his age 30 season. He was better in 2021 (113 OPS-plus) than Grichuk. But because he is still owed $21 million in salary and buyout, the teams probably would have split the difference between his money and Bradley’s, leaving the Brewers in the same financial spot.
Raisel Iglesias hits it big
Raisel Iglesias’ four-year, $58 million free-agent contract with the Angels was the biggest deal signed by a reliever since the 2016-17 offseason, when Aroldis Chapman went for $86 million, Kenley Jansen for $80 million and Melancon for $62 million.
What made Iglesias’ deal all the more impressive is that his market was depressed by his rejection of the Angels’ qualifying offer, which would have subjected any other team that signed him to draft-pick compensation. Liam Hendriks, who signed a four-year, $54 million free-agent contract with the White Sox last offseason, had no qualifying offer attached.
The owners in the CBA negotiations have offered to end direct draft-pick compensation in free agency. The next agreement seems destined to include only indirect compensation, in which the team that loses a qualified free agent gains a pick without penalty to the signing club.
(Photo of Freddie Freeman: Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)