Market share report: Cordarrelle Patterson has few peers, Deonte Harris could be Top 20 in Week 10 and more

Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.

What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).

Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are way more valuable than RB carries) are also important but generally will not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and start/sit decisions.

Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week but all the weeks of the season will be archived so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also note as the season progresses that I gave great thought in doing these stats weekly and not for the season. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats just smoothes everything out to a more meaningless middle. Remember, as our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”

RUNNING BACK TOUCHES

The most interesting names for me this week are the RBs who finished four, five, six and seven on my list: James Conner, Najee Harris, Myles Gaskin, Darrel Williams.

Let’s take them in order. Conner is a player I’ve knocked previously for being terrible because he was terrible. But he was very good on Sunday for the shorthanded Cardinals and you have to think this is going to change the calculus in touches even when Chase Edmonds (high-ankle sprain on the first series that sidelined him) returns. It was easily the best game by an Arizona back all year.

Harris isn’t getting receptions anymore. He has three or less in three of the past four games. He has just eight in these three games combined after a 14-catch game in late September. His 5.6 yards per target is bad for a RB (average is about 6.0). He’s also averaging only 3.6 yards per carry. I know he’s scored a TD in five straight games but he better keep doing it. He’s been very inefficient. Now, this was expected. I said he was going to be rookie LaDainian Tomlinson (3.6 per carry, 5.0 per target on 398 touches). That forecast is tracking.

Gaskin did nothing with his touches but he did get them. I’m not sure why he continues to get the work given he’s 3.6 per rush and 4.1 per target (yikes). We’re in a rough RB environment so you have to play him but he’s a borderline RB2 at best.

Jordan Howard looks fine. The Eagles have taken the option out of the read option to get the ball out of Jalen Hurts’ hands more often in both running and passing. Howard can be a Gus Edwards-type who just hits it up inside on these plays. He should be started everywhere this week.

Williams is a slug. He’s 3.6 per carry and 6.1 per target. I’d give Derrick Gore the ball given that yards per rush is against that deep-safeties look that teams are using dogmatically against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. You have to run a defense out of deep safeties and Williams cannot do it; so why does Andy Reid persist?

Cordarrelle Patterson is RB9 in the consensus PPR RB ranks on Fantasy Pros. I’m not sure why he’s behind anyone right now other than Jonathan Taylor. He has at least 13.1 FanDuel points every game since Week 1. That seven-game active streak is tied with Najee Harris for the longest in the league among RBs. And as we said, Harris has a diminished role as a receiver. Patterson is our Mr. Consistency.

Rhamondre Stevenson, Devin Singletary and A.J. Dillon are all over 20% and have to be looked at as potential starters in Week 10. (Bears, Bengals, Texans and Giants are all off.) Stevenson and Dillon also passed the eye test easily.

I bet few know that Adrian Peterson only beat Jeremy McNichols in touches 11 to 10. Now maybe Peterson gets more with another week of practice but he actually looked old and ran scared (upright). I hate saying it, but even the announcers said it.

Devonta Freeman is getting a lot of love when you look at the touches. Heck, 15 is a nice number. But the Ravens ran 89 plays. So that’s just 36th in market share. I would not get carried away with a Freeman bid this week. I’d actually prefer Le’Veon Bell if he’s much cheaper. Bell had 11 touches but seems the preference on the goal line and actually looked okay.

If Nyheim Hines is going to get 16.4% of snaps in a blowout win, you have to play him. It makes no sense that he is getting them though. Trends are meaningless with him, too.

RECEIVER TARGETS

I’m going to plant a flag for Deonte Harris (44th), who is the Saints best receiver according to Pro Football Focus (and the No. 2-graded receiver in the entire NFL, between Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp). Harris, I bet, lands in the Top 20 in Week 10.

A.J. Brown was second in targets/attempts but the Rams are a tough assignment with Jalen Ramsey shadowing top WRs. Forget the bottom line and consider this the continuation of a very positive trend for Brown.

As I wrote in the Scouting Notebook, DeVonta Smith’s market share means little if the Eagles are going to throw 15 passes a week.

It was good to see Ja’Marr Chase over 30%. Like Brown, this did not produce results but those results will come. Just not in Week 10 (bye).

I like Jerry Jeudy in the top 10 off the bad injury. He’s apparently fine.

Cole Kmet was the second TE and a sparkling 11th overall. (Dallas Goedert has the same problem as Smith). Will the Bears throw more given that Justin Fields played well against a top defense? Remember, the Bears are off this week.

Dan Arnold was in the top 15 as this was a great week in market share for tight ends (though maybe that’s why the games were so dreadful to watch). Arnold should be rostered as should Tyler Conklin (15th) given the Vikings and Kirk Cousins just refuses to pepper Justin Jefferson (54th) with targets.

Zach Pascal should be rostered given he just bested Michael Pittman in market share.

Travis Kelce was 28th at 21.6%. Nothing is working for the woefully inefficient Kansas City passing offense. I feel like I haven’t said that since Mike Livingston was the QB.

Brandon Aiyuk has a pulse at 34th. His 11.1 yards per target demands more targets as does George Kittle’s 12.6 (Kittle also tied for 34th).

Chase Claypool and Mike Williams (50th and 75th, respectively) are failing their managers. Claypool gets hurt every time the ball comes his way. He’s the new Fred G. Sanford just limping around the field and on the sideline constantly. Williams also seems hurt but is ignored when teams roll a deep safety to his side of the field. Alarmingly, this worked against the Eagles, who give up 80% completions like it’s pregame warmups. So maybe Justin Herbert sticks with the check downs.

Mecole Hardman is one of the worst receivers in football, utterly useless whether or not passes are thrown his way. It should be “not.”

(Top photo: Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)