Twins trading block: The 8 veterans most likely to be shopped this offseason

Help is obviously required for the Twins after a hugely disappointing, last-place season and fortunately for them their primary needs — pitching, pitching and more pitching, plus a starting shortstop — happen to be strengths of this year’s free-agent class. There are more front-line starters and star shortstops available than any offseason in recent memory, and the Twins have plenty of money to spend.

However, free agency is merely one way to address a team’s problems and doing so in a meaningful way usually requires paying premium prices and committing to multiple years. In other words, payroll room can shrink in a hurry. Trades are another option, and the Twins find themselves in an uncommon spot for a last-place team in that they have considerable veteran talent to put on the block.

In particular, hitters at positions where the Twins have viable alternatives could be swapped for much-needed pitching help without eating into payroll room as rapidly as free-agent targets of the same caliber. Simply having a more balanced roster would go a long way toward a 2022 turnaround and any successful Twins offseason would likely require a mix of impact signings and impact trades.

Below are the eight players on the Twins’ major-league roster most likely to be shopped around this offseason (and why).

Byron Buxton, CF

Buxton idling on the injured list at the trade deadline may have kept him from being moved like fellow post-2022 free agent José Berríos. Even with interested teams uncertain when Buxton would return, the Twins received viable offers for him once news spread that extension talks stalled. Buxton was back on the active roster on Aug. 27 and slugged .553 with 21 extra-base hits in 34 games down the stretch.

Based on reports that the Twins offered less than $100 million guaranteed over seven years and balked at the size of playing-time incentives meant for the oft-injured center fielder to cash in further if healthy, it’s logical to assume the front office doesn’t plan to have Buxton past 2022. Both sides have said the door isn’t closed on a deal, however, so that outlook could change in a hurry. Let’s hope.

But barring an extension, Buxton is an obvious trade candidate with big value. If the Twins were willing to move him in July, why wouldn’t they also be willing to move him now, with perhaps even more motivation ahead of his final season before free agency? The alternatives are to trade him in July or let him walk for draft-pick compensation after the season. They can get more for Buxton now.

Josh Donaldson, 3B

Two weeks ago, I wrote a lengthy article breaking down the pros and cons — and complicated details — of the Twins trading Donaldson, so I’ll stick to the short version now. Despite largely being written off as a bad signing right away, Donaldson was very productive and mostly healthy in 2021. He was one of the best third basemen in the league and he was worth his $21 million salary.

However, as a 35-year-old with a history of leg injuries, the two years and $50 million remaining on Donaldson’s contract mean he has negative trade value. If the Twins wanted to move him, even for nothing in return, they would need to eat at least some of that money. Exactly how much is unclear, but it’s logical to assume the number is $15 million or more.

With third base prospect Jose Miranda waiting in the wings, it may make sense for the Twins to pay down Donaldson’s deal and trade him, freeing up, say, $12 million to spend elsewhere this offseason and next. Of course, trading away one of their best players only makes the team better if Miranda produces right away and the Twins spend more wisely than their recent free-agent pitching moves.

Max Kepler, OF

What looked like a breakout 2019 season for Kepler is now surrounded on both sides by multiple mediocre campaigns, and he heads into his age-29 season as a career .233 hitter with a .756 OPS. Kepler does most things well. He generates 30-homer power without many strikeouts, he has a good eye and decent speed, and he’s a quality right fielder with enough range to handle center field.

Unfortunately, his rigid, pull-heavy swing leads to so many near-automatic outs on balls in play that Kepler’s contact often isn’t more valuable than striking out. He has the worst career batting average on balls in play of any hitter since 1990 and it can’t be blamed on bad luck. Barring a better approach, Kepler’s upside is capped at above-average regular and even that was a stretch in 2021.

He’s owed $6.75 million in 2022 and $8.5 million in 2023, plus $10 million or a $1 million buyout in 2024. Those are reasonable prices for an average corner outfielder and it wouldn’t be shocking if teams viewed Kepler as having enough surplus value for the Twins to receive a decent return. Assuming the Twins see Trevor Larnach as a building block lefty bat, moving Kepler could make sense.

Miguel Sanó, 1B/3B

Sanó’s season followed an all-too-familiar storyline, as he struggled early, went on the injured list to rehab his swing as much as a sore hamstring and returned to have a solid final five months while few fans cared because they’d long since given up on him. That’s become a typical Sanó season and it’s certainly one of the more frustrating ways to end up with an OPS above the league average.

Sanó hit .223/.312/.466 overall, finishing with a .778 OPS that’s a near match for the .774 league average for first basemen. That includes slugging .509 with 28 homers in 114 games after May 15, the type of production typically praised coming from someone without his baggage. But is that enough to convince the Twins he’s still worth building around or just enough to make him tradable?

He’s owed $9.25 million in 2022, plus $14 million or a $2.75 million buyout in 2023. That’s perhaps a bit more than the going rate for an average-ish slugging first baseman, but it’s close enough that the Twins likely wouldn’t have to eat a huge portion of the money to facilitate a trade as long as they’re not determined to get much of actual value in return. They can move on, but should they?

Mitch Garver, C

Coming into the season, the plan was for Garver and Ryan Jeffers to split time at catcher. Instead, both hit below .200 in April and the Twins discovered two right-handed hitters make for an awkward platoon, demoting Jeffers to the minors after four weeks. Doubling down on Garver worked in that he regained most of his Silver Slugger-winning 2019 form, hitting .256/.358/.517.

However, he started just 53 games behind the plate, spending more time on the injured list than the active roster for the second straight season. Those absences re-opened the door for Jeffers to show he’s still the long-term answer at catcher, potentially turning the 30-year-old Garver into trade bait, but the rookie failed to do that in any sort of convincing way.

Garver is a far better player than Jeffers today, but he’s also on the wrong side of 30, hasn’t stayed on the field consistently and is under team control for just two more seasons. It’s possible the Twins could give the awkward time-sharing plan another try, perhaps making things easier by also using Garver regularly at designated hitter. If not, the choice may be to commit to Garver or trade Garver.

Ryan Jeffers, C

Jeffers’ promising 26-game 2020 debut didn’t carry over to 2021. His “platoon” with Garver made it tough for Jeffers to get rolling, as he mostly got stuck with the worst matchups against right-handed pitchers. Sent down in late April, he was called back up six weeks later when Garver got hurt and Jeffers stayed with the Twins for the rest of the season, hitting .206/.277/.433 in his last 74 games.

Those numbers may not look very impressive, but Jeffers’ career .691 OPS and .710 OPS after returning in June are right around the league-average .694 OPS for catchers and he’s got 17 homers in 111 games. Generally, a rookie being an average hitter for their position is encouraging, and Jeffers’ pitch-framing skills are good enough to make him an above-average defender despite a poor arm.

Is that enough for the Twins to bank on Jeffers as their long-term starter? If it is, then trading Garver and handing the job to Jeffers could make sense. If not, then perhaps Jeffers, not Garver, is the catcher they should shop around. There are never enough catchers to go around, so Jeffers definitely will have suitors if the Twins are willing to risk trading away a 24-year-old catcher with power.

Luis Arraez, 2B/3B

Arraez is 24 and has been one of the Twins’ best players each of the past three seasons, hitting .313/.374/.403. He’s also in line for just $2 million in 2022 via arbitration and under team control through 2025. Why would the Twins want to trade a player like that? They wouldn’t, but Arraez has more trade value than nearly every other hitter on the big-league roster and his long-term fit is murky.

Arraez’s natural position is second base, but his range is stretched there and the Twins have Jorge Polanco anyway. Arraez subbed for Donaldson at third base a lot in 2021 and looked decent there despite lacking ideal arm strength, but even if Donaldson were traded the Twins would likely turn to Miranda as the starter. Arraez has played some left field, but the Twins seem to have given up on that.

Keeping him in a utility role would be fine, and may even be the best thing for Arraez considering his chronic knee issues, but if that’s the role the Twins have planned for him in 2022 and beyond it might be hard to turn down trade offers from teams that view him as an everyday second baseman. If he’s something of a luxury item, are the Twins better off cashing him in for help elsewhere?

Taylor Rogers, LHP

Yes, a pitcher. Let me explain.

Rogers is set to earn about $7 million in 2022 via arbitration, a very reasonable price tag for a consistently good late-inning reliever. Last offseason, the Twins signed Alexander Colomé for $6.25 million and Trevor May left the Twins to sign a two-year, $15.5 million contract with the Mets. Rogers at $7 million has value, to the Twins or another team. Or at least it would if he were healthy.

Rogers injured the tendon in his left middle finger on July 26 and didn’t throw another pitch in 2021. Not only did the injury keep him from potentially being traded at the July 30 deadline, Rogers’ uncertain health status heading into his final season before free agency makes the 30-year-old left-hander much less of a no-brainer to keep at that $7 million price tag.

There was significant trade interest in Rogers before the injury and a few teams kept calling afterward. It’s possible that interest has since dried up — he opted for rest and rehab over surgery and it’s hard to prove he’s healthy before spring training — but the question of whether Rogers’ final season under team control has more value to the Twins as a bullpen piece or a trade piece is worth asking.

(Photo: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)