Hollinger’s 2021-22 Golden State Warriors preview: Lineup, roster, prediction, is this the end of Splash Brothers Era?

Editor’s note: Through Oct. 15, we’ll unveil team previews from The Athletic’s John Hollinger, who will be analyzing each squad on a variety of factors going into this season.

Golden State Warriors

2020-21 season: 39-33 (eighth in West). 20th in offense, fifth in defense

Where we left off

Let’s start with a question rather than a statement: How the heck did a team with Stephen Curry going full-on bananas (32 points per game, 65.5 percent true shooting, first-team All-NBA) finish 20th in offense? The Warriors missed the playoffs because they failed to score, mustering a 102 offensive rating in two narrow Play-In losses despite having Curry playing nearly the entire game.

The answer, obviously, is that the rest of the team wasn’t good enough. With Klay Thompson out for the season and second overall pick James Wiseman a crushing disappointment, the Warriors’ backup plan for Curry was having Andrew Wiggins do whatever Andrew Wiggins does, while the third option was a Kelly Oubre Jr. missed jumper.

Notably, the frontcourt was totally anemic. Draymond Green still defends at a high level, but his 13.1 percent usage is almost comic for a near-max player, while other assorted grinders (Juan Toscano-Anderson, Kevon Looney) couldn’t fill the void. Another potential source of points, second-year pro Eric Paschall, fell out of the mix after a promising rookie season.

Statistically, the story was one of quantity undermining quality. The Warriors had the league’s sixth-highest turnover rate and were last in offensive rebounding. As a result, they had fewer true shooting attempts per possession than any team in the league. Golden State was seventh in true shooting percentage; that should have been good enough to support a real offense. The 41 turnovers in the two Play-In losses illustrate why that wasn’t the case.

There were a few bright spots. Jordan Poole dramatically recovered from a disastrous rookie year to provide some genuine bench offense, while undrafted find Damion Lee continued to provide value.

And of course, there was the defense, led by Green. The Warriors struggled to rebound and had the league’s second-highest foul rate, but aside from the center position, they were long and tough and wouldn’t let you get to the rim (only Washington was stingier in this respect). Wiggins discovered the joy of shot blocking and was one of the league’s most improved defensive players, most of the role players were plus defenders, and Green — as ever — was an onboard computer decoding opponent plays.

Offseason moves

The biggest offseason move is getting Thompson back from Achilles surgery, but the Warriors did some other stuff, too:

Drafted SF Jonathan Kuminga (seventh) and SG Moses Moody (14th)
Traded PF Eric Paschall to Utah for a protected future second
Signed PF Nemanja Bjelica (one year, minimum)
Signed SF Otto Porter Jr. (one year, minimum)
Signed PF Andre Iguodala (one year, minimum)
Signed PG Chris Chiozza to a two-way
Waived PF Alen Smailagic
Extended contract of PG Steph Curry (four years, $216 million)
Did not re-sign SF Kent Bazemore, SF Kelly Oubre Jr. or PG Nico Mannion

With the Warriors just working around the edges via minimum deals, the draft was the big event. Golden State’s picks were solid for the range it picked; Kuminga is a big wing with some feel issues reminiscent of Harrison Barnes, while Moody has a lower ceiling but seems to offer pretty solid long-term 3-and-D potential.

The Warriors were just shopping with the minimum exception due to their absurd luxury-tax position (more on that below) but did well to come away with Porter, Bjelica and Iguodala. All three have seen better days, but Porter’s shooting, in particular, offers some positive return if he can stay healthy. Cutting bait on Paschall was a bit of a surprise, but the Warriors’ veteran additions left no realistic pathway to minutes, and he hadn’t expanded his game beyond taking tough 2s.

Golden State also has a theoretical competition for its last roster spot with nonguaranteed deals for Mychal Mulder, Langston Galloway and Avery Bradley. However, the smart money is still on “none of the above,” given that said player would cost them roughly $12 million in salary and luxury tax over the course of the season. Mulder could easily be brought back on a two-way if he clears waivers.

Curry’s extension will keep him a Warrior until 2026. The back end feels a little scary; he’s going to make $60 million dollars in a season where he turns 38. Still, there was no reasonable alternative to giving him the bag, and he’s surely earned it.

Finally, let us pour one out for Smailagic, a player the Warriors seemed to covet more for the subterfuge involved in obtaining him than any evidence of ability. After hiding him on their G League team for a year, surrendering cash and two seconds to get a pick and draft him (two spots ahead of Paschall!) and keeping him on the roster for two years, he was mercifully let go.

Cap situation

Well, it’s a situation all right. Even after not re-signing Oubre and limiting themselves to minimum deals in the offseason, the Warriors are in the most precarious luxury-tax position in NBA annals.

Even if they cull the roster to 14 players and not make any further additions, the Warriors are looking at cutting a $180 million check to the league after the season. Let me try to put this staggering sum in some context: This isn’t their payroll; this is additional money they owe. But it happens to be more than the payroll of every other team in the league.

While the Chase Center gives the Warriors a license to print money, even they have their limits — especially if, as seems inevitable, this team still isn’t a realistic contender. For instance, surely they will need to pay somebody in draft picks and cash to take Looney’s $5.2 million deal, which would save the team roughly $25 million on that check to the league.

Going forward, it doesn’t get any better. The Warriors are $25 million over the 2022-23 tax line with just eight players signed; even filling out the roster with minimums will result in another nine-figure check to the league. (This, by the way, is absolutely amazing news for the league’s small markets; luxury-tax penalties are split between the league office and the other 29 teams, and Golden State and Brooklyn’s profligacy could well swing a few teams’ books into the black.)

The roster

Likely starters

Player	Pos	VORP/100	BORD$
Steph Curry	PG	4.74	$34,225,490
Klay Thompson	SG	1.91	$10,997,799
Andrew Wiggins	SF	1.97	$17,089,623
Otto Porter	PF	1.20	$7,664,887
Draymond Green	PF	2.87	$21,548,964

Likely second unit

Player	Pos	VORP/100	BORD$
Jordan Poole	PG	0.68	$5,187,851
Damion Lee	SG	1.72	$10,394,114
Jonathan Kuminga	SF	--	(R)
Andre Iguodala	SF	0.22	$2,696,439
James Wiseman	C	-1.35	Minimum

Likely deep reserves

Player	Pos	VORP/100	BORD$
Moses Moody	SG	--	(R)
Mychal Mulder	SG	0.94	$5,320,967
Nemanja Bjelica	SF	1.21	$7,766,308
Juan Toscano-Anderson	PF	0.85	$5,598,802
Kevon Looney	C	-0.42	Minimum
Chris Chiozza (2w)	PG	-0.50	Minimum

BORD$ – Projected value according to Hollinger’s BORD$ formula
VORP/100 – Projected value over replacement player per 100 possessions according to Hollinger’s BORD$ formula
(R) – Rookie, no projection available

James Wiseman (Darren Yamashita / USA Today)

The players (… in 12 words or less)

Nemanja Bjelica, PF – Heat and Kings wouldn’t play him, but can shoot, handle and pass.
Stephen Curry, PG – The greatest shooter ever and also pretty good at the other stuff.
Draymond Green, PF – Genius frontcourt defender, but one whose offensive shortcomings have become more pronounced.
Andre Iguodala, SF – Cagey vet no longer threatening offensively but remains plus defender.
Jonathan Kuminga, SF – Big, promising wing loves him some pull-up 2s, must expand arsenal.
Damion Lee, SG – Quietly becoming good role player; shot 39.7 percent from 3 and defends.
Kevon Looney, C – Oft-injured big knows how to play but has zero athletic pop left.
Moses Moody, SG – Long, young and can shoot. Great value for where he was selected.
Mychal Mulder, SG – 3-and-D wing could be tax casualty, but he belongs in the league.
Jordan Poole, SG – Plus bench scorer from either guard spot will help the non-Curry minutes.
Otto Porter Jr., PF – Knockdown shooter with size and feel, but frequent injuries eroding his value.
Klay Thompson, SG – This season’s big mystery. After ACL and Achilles, how much is left?
Juan Toscano-Anderson, PF – Gotta love a grinder like this fighting his way into the league.
Andrew Wiggins, SF – Overpaid for what he is, but more consistent here than in Minnesota.
James Wiseman, C – Too much size, talent to write off but … last year was rough.
Chris Chiozza, PG (2w) – Steady point man a pretty reliable depth piece to have on two-way.

Burning question: Is this the end of the Splash Brothers Era?

It’s one thing to land in the middle of the pack while Thompson is out for the season and a lottery pick is still sitting on your asset sheet. It’s another to do the same with Thompson playing, the pick used and the cap structure lighting money on fire (the Warriors are looking at paying a quarter-billion dollars just in tax penalties this year and next!) to finish in the middle of the standings.

The obvious ownership-level question for Golden State is where this is all headed. The idea has always been to use its three recent lottery picks as a bridge to the next era, but that plan may be in some flux. Taking Wiseman over LaMelo Ball has left that plan’s outlook in a much less secure place, contingent on how Kuminga and Moody look. The idea of going all-in right now by trading the young players, or future picks, for another impact star also has a giant wart: Taking on more salary and tax payments for a rather uncertain return.

The conundrum, of course, is that the Warriors might not be able to get out of this even if they want to. Thompson is owed $120 million over the next three years; his deal might have as much negative equity as any in the league. Wiggins, with two years and $65 million left, is right down there on the list, too. Even Green may have limited trade value at this point given his offensive decline and $25 million-a-year pay package.

One can argue the Warriors are merely at a low ebb, and once Wiseman, Kuminga and Moody get established alongside still-productive veterans like Curry, Thompson and Green, the Warriors can re-emerge in the West. That glass-half-full take will certainly get load-tested this year. Meanwhile, Golden State can escape the tax entirely in 2023-24 when Wiggins comes off the books. At that point, stretching or trading either Thompson or Green also becomes more realistic.

No matter how you slice it, the glorious era that began in 2014 is staring its mortality in the face. This year, especially the second half of it when Thompson returns, likely will determine the viability of the Warriors’ strategy going forward.

Projection

The last intact version we saw of the Warriors went to the Finals; alas, that team also had Kevin Durant, a healthy Thompson and a more vibrant Iguodala. Since then, they haven’t played a playoff game.

One might think having Thompson back pushes the Warriors toward the top of the West again. Cynics might add that having Wiseman out to start the season can only help. Not so fast. First, Thompson may not even be on the floor until the season is half over. And while my projection on Thompson this year is admittedly a dart throw after two lost seasons, his output had dipped in the two seasons even before he was hurt.

Meanwhile, the Warriors have other factors pushing them back. Having to replace Oubre and Bazemore with minimum guys hurts. Also, the Warriors’ two key players (Curry and Green) are now 33 and 31, respectively. Curry was amazeballs last season, but if he’s merely an All-Star, that’s going to be a minus relative to a year ago — and they needed him to play at peak level just to squeeze out an eighth-place place finish.

Yes, Kuminga and Moody offer promise for the future, but teenage rookies rarely move the needle. Their biggest 2021-22 impact would be as trade chips. Wiseman will begin the year rehabbing a torn meniscus, and even his biggest fans would concede he’s much more of a project than first envisioned.

True believers remain. Vegas has the Warriors with the fourth-best championship odds — which I first thought was a typo and seems absolutely hilarious, but there it is. Yes, Golden State’s depth pieces are better this season, but none of its frontcourt players can score, the shot creation remains limited and two of the three stars who sent this core to five straight Finals are losing their war against Father Time. A healthy Curry playing at an MVP level might get this team to a mid-tier playoff seed; anything short of that, and it’s back to the Play-In Tournament.