State of the Devils: Two franchise cornerstones, one big void to fill at center

Those numbers, particularly the advanced ones, really hammer home how different the game looked when Hughes was on the ice versus when he was not — particularly after Zajac left for Long Island. The Devils don’t need all four lines to be puck possession monsters, but they are going to need the two lines not centered by Hughes or McLeod to be better.

McLeod’s profile — not great in shot attempts, but close to 50 percent in the other categories — can work if his line is handling tough defensive assignments and not playing too much (more on that shortly). A full season of a healthy Hischier alone should help his line in this department, though a Bratt-Hischier-Zacha trio might always be reliant on trying to outscore its underlying metrics.

Offseason in review

Maltsev was the only significant offseason subtraction. The Devils did add Chase De Leo on a two-way contract, and he looks like a potential replacement for Ben Street, who has been the organization’s No. 1 center at the AHL level in recent seasons. Street remains unsigned.

If the Devils do add another veteran before now and the start of the regular season, someone who could bolster the center depth might not be the worst idea.

Three big questions for 2021-22

1. Will Hughes take another leap forward in Year 3?

The Devils made some significant offseason moves and the collection of players who could be supporting stars in the years to come looks promising. But any path to the playoffs and Stanley Cup contention still revolves around Hughes and Hischier converting their promise into production and becoming one of the top 1-2 punches at center in the NHL.

While Hughes made significant strides in 2021, traditional production lagged behind. Having an established scorer like Tomas Tatar playing next to him could help. Better finishing, both from himself and his teammates, could help. An improved power play would definitely help. Better luck with shots deflecting off crossbars and posts and going in would help.

There was a similar question about Hischier two summers ago, so we can borrow from that with an update to show some recent historical evidence of similar high-end young centers. Here is how every center drafted in the top five in the salary cap performed in the NHL in their first two post-draft seasons:

Hughes’ first two years don’t measure up to many of the top-five picks from 2005-16, but he’s not alone in not reaching stardom immediately from the recent few draft classes. If we just sort that group of players by just their age-19 season, Hughes’ GAR of 9.6 is actually right in the middle — 11th out of 21 (excluding Sidney Crosby and Eric Staal), ahead of Jack Eichel, Leon Draisaitl, Aleksander Barkov, John Tavares and Nathan MacKinnon.

Here’s what that group of centers looked like in Year 3:

Players like Crosby, Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews were already superstars by age 20. Other top-five picks took longer to become elite offensive players, and a few never reached that level.

Looking at stats on the back of a hockey card and picking out a “breakout” season neglects circumstances like linemates, health and shooting luck, but here’s a best guess at when “the leap” came for each of the players.

* Turris spent the year in the American Hockey League

** These are prorated stats because of the lockout-shortened 2013 season

*** Patrick missed the entire season with an injury 

Five of the 16 guys drafted between 2005-15 took a big step forward in the third season after they were drafted. This is also another reminder that Hughes is not alone among recent top-five picks who haven’t popped early quite like their predecessors did. Even Pierre Luc-Dubois had a down year in 2021 and now it’s harder to put his first three seasons into context.

Hughes benefitted from the extended offseason a year ago to build up his body. He won’t have as much time to work on that this summer, but improving his finishing ability might be as important as the work he does on his physique moving forward — he’s already proven he plays at a high level despite needing more maturity and development in that department.

2. Who is the fourth center? 

We know who three of the club’s four centers are going to be, barring injury, on opening night — Hughes, Hischier and McLeod. The fourth one (or, ideally the third one depending on whether or not McLeod can improve further) might be the biggest lineup question for the Devils at the start of training camp.

New Jersey had three consistent lines at the end of last season, but the fourth was often a bit of a mess. Jesper Boqvist spent the most time at center there, particularly after Zajac was traded, but the wings were often “who are the other two guys in the lineup tonight?” — and that often meant inexperience or a snakebitten Andreas Johnsson, or a combination of both.

Zacha could be the answer. Adding Tatar means the Devils now have “seven” top-six forwards, if you count the top six at the end of last season plus the free-agent addition. Slide Tatar into Zacha’s place on the wing, shift him to center, problem solved … right? Well, Zacha has looked better on the wing at various points over the past couple seasons, and the team’s desire to see him use his shooting ability more seems to manifest better out there.

If not Zacha, then Boqvist could be the answer. He should be the favorite if Lindy Ruff says Zacha is starting the year on the wing at media day. The overall numbers from Boqvist’s 2021 season don’t look encouraging. He did score in the first two games after Zajac was traded, but even when the club snapped out of the late-season funk and finished with a decent final nine games, Boqvist’s underlying numbers continued to sink.

If Boqvist does start the season at center, that could mean whichever top-six guy gets nudged out by Tatar plus Johnsson as his linemates, unless a rookie surprises in camp. This is going to be an important role, even more so if McLeod ultimately settles in as a No. 4C.

Are there any potential dark horses for the spot? Well, the Devils aren’t exactly bubbling over with center prospects. Dawson Mercer might be the long-term answer. If he does make the team out of training camp, it feels likely he’d start on the wing. Maybe the Devils could just roll with a Zacha-Boqvist-Mercer trio and we can call it the “one of these guys needs to eventually be the 3C line.” That’s not very catchy, though.

3. Who is going to replace Zajac?

This might look like the same question as the last one, but it’s not. One of Zacha, Boqvist, Mercer or a still-to-come veteran addition is likely to be the other center in the lineup for the Devils. But who actually replaces Zajac as the go-to defensive guy?

The answer is probably a combination of Hischier and McLeod. It’s unlikely that either of them is really ready to just go shift-for-shift with guys like Crosby, McDavid and MacKinnon the way Zajac could. Hischier has been hailed as a future Selke Trophy candidate, which would mean a future matching up with the best centers while also providing a lot of offense.

It’s possible that Ruff will want McLeod to handle a little more of that so Hischier can try to focus a little more on expanding his offensive game. But Ruff has also made it pretty clear that he believes his best players have to line up against and beat the other team’s best. That probably means a healthy dose of Hischier’s line and maybe a little of Hughes sprinkled in as well.

Late in games, Ruff could just go with Hischier or McLeod based on which side of the ice the faceoff is going to be on.

Depth chart analysis

The Devils really haven’t seen Hughes and Hischier at full power/strength together yet. Hischier showed flashes of it near the end of the season, but several of those final games were against a Flyers team that looked like a club that was already checked out for the offseason. New Jersey’s brass would be quite happy to watch them compete/push each other for the “No. 1” role over the next decade, but both becoming consistent No. 1-caliber centers is where the path to being a consistent contender lies.

Finding a high-end No. 3 option would be another way to forge an advantage over other potential contenders. Few clubs are able to roll out three dangerous lines. The Devils might have enough wing talent in the pipeline to make it work, but figuring out that center spot would certainly help.

McLeod’s underlying numbers definitely tailed off a bit at the end of the season, but that was a club-wide issue for everyone except the top line. He doesn’t have to “settle” as the fourth center. The Devils would be happy to see his game grow a little more to where he could be a 15-goal, 35-40-point third-line center who handles tough assignments. If not that, maybe Ruff’s “energy” line does continue to get a little more ice time than a traditional fourth unit would. Hughes and Hischier are likely to eat up a lot of five-on-five minutes in their primes, but being able to win one or both of the bottom-six matchups would be a huge help.

One of Zacha or Boqvist seems like the natural fit as the “fifth” center to start the season. There is a little less depth with Mikhail Maltsev gone. He was the type of guy who could step in and hold his own for a handful of games when needed. Depending on where Mercer is at, Chase De Leo might be the top recall option from Utica.

Yegor Sharangovich hasn’t been mentioned at all to this point because he blossomed on the wing in 2021 and his goal-scoring ability seems like a natural fit to keep him out there, but he’s been a center at both the AHL and KHL levels. He could certainly be a “break glass in case of emergency” option, at a minimum.

Special teams

Hughes will be a fixture on the power play for years to come. The Devils could still use at least one more shooter, but adding Dougie Hamilton at the top of the zone should draw some attention away from Hughes and give him a little more time to make plays.

Hischier will probably fit on PP1 as well, though maybe he plays in the same spot as Hughes as the conductor for PP2. The idea of him playing as the “net-front” guy but really operating as a second facilitator below the goal line is pretty intriguing, but Hischier hasn’t had a big impact in either the bumper or net-front roles to date. The Devils may also not want to put him back in the line of fire right away after the injury last year.

Losing Blake Coleman and Kevin Rooney from the penalty kill, and then Zajac as well, left a lot of room for some forwards to earn more playing time. McLeod is likely to be a fixture on the PK. Hischier could be as well. He certainly has the skill, agility and processing power to be a problem for opposing power plays.

Whether Zacha plays at center or the wing, he’ll likely be on one of the two power-play units. Boqvist could help himself by nudging his way into the PK group or onto PP2 or both during training camp.

Salary cap watch

Hischier is locked in for six more seasons at a $7.25 million cap hit. The past two seasons haven’t been what he wanted, but he was a $7 million player in his first two NHL campaigns. He could be that, and maybe even a little more, moving forward.

Hughes will be a restricted free agent after the 2021-22 season. He’s likely to sign a lucrative deal as well, but when could factor into how expensive. If Hughes does have a breakout offensive season, he might cost more to lock up long-term next summer than he would right now. Might is the key word, though, because, given Hughes’ pedigree and what he showed last season, he and his representatives at CAA are not likely to accept something that obviously looks like a pre-breakout discount.

With Zajac gone, there are no other long-term commitments at the position. Zacha and Boqvist will also need a new contract after this season. Both are pending restricted free agents (RFAs), though Zacha is close to unrestricted free agency and any sort of term on his next contract will likely be pricey. McLeod signed a two-year deal for his second contract this offseason, and Boqvist could sign something similar this summer unless he breaks out in a big way.

In the pipeline

The Devils drafted a center in the first half of the first round four times between 2016 and 2019, including three in the top six. That said, the Devils are a little light at the position beyond Hughes and Hischier, and not just because Zacha might not play there in the long term.

Mercer is the club’s top center prospect … if he stays at the position. De Leo could be the No. 1 center for Utica in the AHL. Nate Schnarr, who was part of the haul for Taylor Hall from Arizona, finished well last season, could be the No. 2 center, unless that’s where Mercer ends up. Aarne Talvitie should play center in his first full pro season.

Samu Salminen, the Devils’ third-round pick in 2021, was projected to go higher by plenty of draft pundits and could be an option if he sticks at the position. Listed at 6 feet, 2 inches, he might end up as a goal-scoring wing, but he could also add a little size down the middle. New Jersey has selected a few centers with picks in the later rounds in recent drafts, but none of them is certain to even play in the NHL, let alone stick at center.

Final assessment

If Hughes and Hischier reach their potential, center is going to be a strength for the Devils for a long time. Add in one more guy who can play 16-17 minutes a night and drive a third line, and the Devils could be one of the best teams in the league at the position.

It’s not ideal that both franchise cornerstones are relatively small players, and guys like Boqvist, Mercer and McLeod aren’t going to be “big” either. It’s almost certain that some people will try to make that a big deal the minute the Devils lose a playoff series to a team with taller centers. Maybe Salminen or another addition down the road will be able to provide size as the third center.

Worry about whether the team has enough size at one position to win four playoff rounds is a problem the Devils will be happy to have and try to sort out someday. Developing the centers they have right now is going to be one of the biggest keys to getting to that point.

(Photo of Jack Hughes: Andy Lewis / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)