Will the American League Rookie of the Year be Randy Arozarena, Adolis García or perhaps one of the other players listed below? The 28-year-old Rangers rookie set the pace for much of the season, but the Rays outfielder has ridden a hot streak to overtake him in my latest AL rookie rankings.
Earlier Friday, I assessed the top 10 National League rookies. Now, it’s the AL’s turn. Here is a breakdown of how I see the AL Rookie of the Year race with about two months left in the season, along with other thoughts and notes on each player.
(Jim Bowden’s scouting grades are based on the 20-80 scale, in which 20-30 is well below average, 40 is below average, 50 is average, 60 is above average and 70-80 is well above average. WAR numbers are according to FanGraphs.)
1. Randy Arozarena, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 26 B: R T: R
Height: 5-11 Weight: 185
WAR: 2.1
Scouting grades: Arm: 55 Fielding: 50 Hitting: 55 Power: 55 Running: 55
Arozarena took MLB by storm in the 2020 playoffs when he shocked everyone by hitting .377 with 10 home runs. He started slowly this year, batting .251 in the first half of the season, albeit with 10 home runs, 41 RBIs and 11 stolen bases in 82 games. However, the second half has been a different story as Arozarena has slashed .354/.400/.738 with six home runs in his past 17 games (70 plate appearances) to edge ahead of García.
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2. Adolis García, OF, Texas Rangers
Age: 28 B: R T: R
Height: 6-1 Weight: 205
WAR: 2.0
Scouting grades: Arm: 50 Fielding: 45 Hitting: 45 Power: 60 Running: 50
Among the rookie position players on this list, García is the biggest surprise. He was third on the Rangers’ center-field depth chart in spring training, but that soon changed. García had a tremendous first half of the season — hitting .270 with 22 home runs and 62 RBIs — and looked like he could run away with the AL rookie award. But he has struggled in the second half, batting just .154 with one home run in his past 18 games. To get back on track, García needs to stop chasing breaking balls out of the strike zone and to foul off the pitches he can’t handle at the top of the zone.
3. Casey Mize, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Age: 24
Height: 6-3 Weight: 212
WAR: 0.9
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 Slider: 60 Split Finger: 55 Curve: 55 Control: 55 Command: 55
Mize has been the AL’s best rookie starting pitcher. He locked in after a down first month and has yielded three or fewer earned runs in 15 of his past 17 starts. Overall, Mize has logged a 3.57 ERA and a 1.129 WHIP with 90 strikeouts in 116 innings (21 starts). Impressively, he’s pitched to a 50.6 percent ground-ball rate, which is 11 percentage points higher than last year.
4. Akil Baddoo, OF, Detroit Tigers
Age: 22 B: L T: L
Height: 6-1 Weight: 214
WAR: 1.7
Scouting grades: Arm: 55 Fielding: 55 Hitting: 50 Power: 55 Running: 60
Baddoo, whom the Tigers selected from the Twins in last year’s Rule 5 draft, had not advanced past Single A in his career but defied the odds to make Detroit’s major-league team after a strong spring training. He continued that success in early April, belting four doubles, three triples and four home runs, then struggled at the end of the month and throughout May, when the league started to adjust to him. However, he adjusted back, hitting .348 in June, then hit five homers and drove in 18 runs in July. Overall, Baddoo has logged an .803 OPS (129 OPS+), 10 home runs, 43 RBIs and 14 stolen bases. Thanks to his impressive combination of speed and power, he profiles as a 20-home run, 30-stolen base outfielder in time.
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5. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Age: 23
Height: 6-2 Weight: 206
WAR: 1.2
Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 Slider: 55 Control: 55 Command: 55
A dominant rookie closer, Clase features a 100 mph cutter and a late-breaking slider that opposing hitters are batting just .111 against (5-for-45) in his electric mix. Here’s a sampling of his Statcast rankings among major-league pitchers: hard-hit rate (95th percentile), barrel percentage (98th), whiff percentage (90th), chase rate (99th), fastball velocity (100th), fastball spin (97th) … you get the idea. Clase has posted a 1.81 ERA and a 1.164 WHIP in 46 appearances. He’s recorded 47 strikeouts in 44 2/3 innings and 14 saves.
6. Garrett Whitlock, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Age: 25
Height: 6-5 Weight: 190
WAR: 1.0
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 Slider: 55 Changeup: 50 Control: 50 Command: 50
Whitlock has become a strong reliever for the Red Sox, who took the right-hander from the Yankees via last year’s Rule 5 draft. His 1.21 ERA (52 innings) ranks among the best in the game. He has posted 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.9 walks per nine. Whitlock always had dominating, over-the-top stuff, but his poise and competitiveness are special and truly separate him. Said Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom: “It’s hard enough to pitch in the big leagues as a Rule 5 pick, let alone in big spots. Garrett’s pounded the strike zone with quality stuff since the day he showed up. He goes multiple innings, and he doesn’t back down. He’s become a critical part of our pitching staff.”
7. Luis Garcia, RHP, Houston Astros
Age: 24
Height: 6-1 Weight: 244
WAR: 2.1
Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 Changeup: 60 Slider: 55 Curveball: 45 Control: 50 Command: 45
Garcia has made 18 starts and two relief appearances this season, going 7-6 with a 3.49 ERA and 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are batting just .219 against him.
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8. James Kaprielian, RHP, Oakland Athletics
Age: 27
Height: 6-3 Weight: 225
WAR: 0.8
Scouting grades: Fastball: 50 Slider: 60 Changeup: 55 Curve: 55 Control: 55 Command: 60
Kaprielian endured several injuries at the start of his career, which included undergoing Tommy John surgery, and it limited him to only six starts in his first four years of pro ball (2015-18). However, the right-hander is enjoying better health this season and living up to his first-round pedigree (the Yankees drafted him at No. 16 in 2015), going 5-4 with a 3.24 ERA in 13 starts, and striking out 79 batters in 72 1/3 innings. That said, Kaprielian is working back from a right shoulder impingement that landed him on the injured list late last month, but he could return soon if all goes well.
9. Andrew Vaughn, LF, Chicago White Sox
Age: 23 B: R T: R
Height: 6-0 Weight: 215
WAR: 1.2
Scouting grades: Arm: 50 Fielding: 45 Hitting: 60 Power: 60 Running: 50
Vaughn had a respectable first half of the season, slashing .253/.320/.452 with 10 home runs and 26 RBIs. But it looks like he’s really settled in since the start of the second half, slashing .290/.362/.452 in 19 games. There is no doubt in my mind that Vaughn will develop into a middle-of-the-lineup impact bat.
10. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Age: 25
Height: 6-3 Weight: 210
WAR: 1.2
Scouting grades: Fastball: 75 Slider: 65 Curve: 50 Changeup: 50 Control: 45 Command: 45
Kopech’s fastball velocity ranks in the 93rd percentile among major-league pitchers. His strikeout rate (95th percentile) and xERA (92nd) also stand up well against the rest of the league. Kopech is a dominant middle reliever now but will eventually develop into a top-of-the-rotation ace. He’s pitched to a 2.70 ERA and struck out 61 batters in 43 1/3 innings this season. Opponents are batting .163 against his four-seam fastball, .216 against his slider and .214 against his curveball.
(Photo of Randy Arozarena: Cliff Welch / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)