The Rookie of the Year races are close this year, with a pair of starting pitchers leading the way in the National League. Marlins lefty Trevor Rogers has a distinct lead over Braves righty Ian Anderson, but Anderson has time to make a run.
Here is a breakdown of how I see the NL Rookie of the Year race with about two months left in the season. (You can read the AL rankings here.)
(Jim Bowden’s scouting grades are based on the 20-80 scale, in which 20-30 is well below average, 40 is below average, 50 is average, 60 is above average and 70-80 is well above average. WAR numbers are according to FanGraphs.)
1. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Miami Marlins
Age: 23
Height: 6-5 Weight: 217
WAR: 3.3
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 Slider: 50 Changeup: 65 Control: 60 Command: 55
A first-round pick in the 2017 draft, Rogers debuted last season and had mixed results in seven starts, finishing with a 6.11 ERA but 39 strikeouts in 28 innings. This season, he’s been the best rookie in MLB and Miami’s most-dominating pitcher after winning a rotation spot in spring training. Rogers has a mid-90s mph fastball, a deceptive changeup that opponents are hitting .169 against, and a slider that needs work. But the combination of his four-seamer and ridiculous changeup has quickly made Rogers one of the best lefty starters in the majors — not just among rookies. Rogers is 7-6 in 20 starts with a 2.45 ERA, which ranks fifth in MLB. He has registered 129 strikeouts in 110 innings (10.6 strikeouts per nine innings). He’s posted the best HR/9 ratio in the league at 0.4. He made the NL All-Star team and his 3.3 WAR is the best among all major-league rookies.
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2. Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Age: 23
Height: 6-3 Weight: 170
WAR: 1.9
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 Changeup: 60 Curveball: 55 Control: 50 Command: 55
Anderson has lived up to the high expectations he created last year when he posted a 1.95 ERA, a 2.54 FIP and 11.4 strikeouts per nine in six regular-season starts. His postseason performance was even more remarkable as Anderson went 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA in four starts (18 2/3 innings). That excellence has largely carried over to 2021. Anderson’s fastball lives in the mid-90s, and he throws it 47 percent of the time. The changeup is his best secondary pitch; opponents are hitting just .183 against it, and he throws it a whopping 32 percent of the time. He also mixes in a curveball to keep hitters off-balance. Anderson is currently on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation and made a rehab start Thursday at Triple-A Gwinnett. He is 5-5 with a 3.56 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 96 big-league innings this season. Anderson has the tools, command, poise and moxie to be an All-Star caliber pitcher for years to come.
3. Jonathan India, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 24 B: R T: R
Height: 6-0 Weight: 200
WAR: 2.8
Scouting grades: Arm: 55 Fielding: 55 Hitting: 55 Power: 50 Running: 50
The Reds drafted India as a third baseman in the first round in 2018, then moved him to second base. He has adapted well and now plays a solid second base. Offensively, he’s been an on-base machine (.403 OPB) this season and sports an OPS+ of 121. He has hit for power (12 home runs), stolen seven bases and quickly become a fan favorite in Cincinnati.
4. Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B, Miami Marlins
Age: 23 B: L T: R
Height: 5-11 Weight: 184
WAR: 1.0
Scouting grades: Arm: 55 Fielding: 55 Hitting: 50 Power: 55 Running: 55
The Marlins expected Chisholm to spend the year in the minors developing his bat, but he had other plans, outperforming his teammates to win the job at second base. He has hit a respectable .259 and shown his power with 11 home runs. He’s flashed his elite sprint speed, which ranks in the 95th percentile, with 11 stolen bases but has been caught stealing seven times.
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5. Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 22 B: B T: L
Height: 6-2 Weight: 205
WAR: 1.2
Scouting grades: Arm: 55 Fielding: 55 Hitting: 50 Power: 50 Running: 55
Carlson debuted last year and hit seven doubles and three home runs in 110 at-bats. This year, he’s slashed .253/.334/.409 with 11 home runs, 44 RBIs and 43 walks while playing solid-average defense in the outfield. He’s been solid across the board and has a lot more upside.
6. Ryan Weathers, LHP, San Diego Padres
Age: 21
Height: 6-1 Weight: 230
WAR: 0.2
Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 Slider: 60 Changeup: 50 Control: 60 Command: 55
Weathers, a first-round pick and the seventh overall player taken in the 2018 draft, is 4-3 with a 3.65 ERA (but a 5.08 FIP) this season in 66 2/3 innings (13 starts, six relief appearances). His fastball and slider are wipeout pitches. His changeup is a solid-average pitch when it’s working. Weathers — the son of former major leaguer David Weathers, who pitched for the Reds when I was their general manager — has a bright future as a No. 2 or No. 3 type starter once he fully develops.
7. Vladimir Gutierrez, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 25
Height: 6-1 Weight: 190
WAR: 0.0
Scouting grades: Fastball: 45 Slider: 55 Curve: 55 Changeup: 50 Control: 55 Command: 50
Gutierrez has allowed three or fewer earned runs in nine of his 12 starts and two or fewer in eight of those starts. Overall, he’s posted a 4.39 ERA and a 1.360 WHIP in 67 2/3 innings. His fastball is mostly 93-94 mph. He also throws a hard slider that comes in at about 83 mph, a 77 mph curveball and an 81 mph changeup. Gutierrez mixes pitches really well and his command of his secondary pitches continues to improve. His ability to make adjustments has stood out.
8. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 24 B: R T: R
Height: 5-10 Weight: 205
WAR: 0.7
Scouting grades: Arm: 60 Fielding: 70 Hitting: 55 Power: 55 Running: 55
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Hayes, my preseason pick for NL Rookie of the Year, injured his wrist in the second game of the season and was placed on the IL the next day. He had just five at-bats in April and didn’t play in May. He returned in early June and posted a .350 on-base percentage that month with 13 RBIs in 100 plate appearances. Defensively, he’s been a human highlight film at times, but his offense has never really gotten going.
9. Patrick Wisdom, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Age: 29 B: R T: R
Height: 6-2 Weight: 220
WAR: 1.7
Scouting grades: Arm: 65 Fielding: 50 Hitting: 50 Power: 55 Running: 50
Wisdom is the biggest surprise of all the NL rookies as the 29-year-old has come out of nowhere to slash .272/.335/.572 with 16 home runs, 32 RBIs and a 142 OPS+ in 62 games. He has also played a solid third base.
10. Tyrone Taylor, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 27 B: R T: R
Height: 6-0 Weight: 194
WAR: 1.0
Scouting grades: Arm: 50 Fielding: 55 Hitting: 45 Power: 50 Running: 55
The Brewers have dealt with a plethora of outfield injuries, including to Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, which opened the door for Taylor. He has made the most of the opportunity, slashing .243/.327/.444 with nine home runs and 35 RBIs in 214 plate appearances. He’s stolen five bases in six attempts. Taylor’s athleticism is probably his best tool, and he looks like a solid fourth or fifth outfielder type going forward.
(Photo of Trevor Rogers: Adam Glanzman / MLB Photos via Getty Images)