C-USA Tournament Preview: Middle Tennessee needs a Marshall plan

Middle Tennessee will be wary of one particular opponent in this week’s Conference USA tournament. In a year where the Blue Raiders bulldozed most of the conference, only one team was able to beat them — twice.

That was Marshall, which went to Murfreesboro on the last day of the regular season on Saturday and snatched a 76-67 victory. The Blue Raiders, by beating Western Kentucky at home on March 1, had already clinched the league’s regular-season title. So MTSU couldn’t be blamed for looking ahead a bit to the league tournament, and perhaps that’s why it slipped up and lost to the Thundering Herd a second time.

In most seasons, winning the C-USA tournament is the only sure entry into the NCAA Tournament. That will be put to the test this week, because MTSU has done everything the NCAA selection committee asks to demonstrate its worth. Consider a final RPI of 27, a non-conference schedule-strength ranking of 10th, records of 3-3 vs. quadrant 1 teams and 2-1 against quadrant 2, and perhaps the most impressive number of all: 12-1 on the road. The Blue Raiders even managed to get ranked in the Top 25 last week, though bracketologists worth their advanced analytics will tell you the committee doesn’t much care about rankings.

All this begs the question: If MTSU were to lose in the C-USA tournament, could it still manage to squeeze its way into the NCAA Tournament? The committee is supposed to develop collective amnesia and not even consider the Blue Raiders’ recent NCAA Tournament Big Ten bashing, but it will be hard to ignore. In 2016, 15th-seeded MTSU took out a second-seeded Michigan State team that many thought could win the national championship. And last season, seeded 12th, the Blue Raiders bounced fifth-seed Minnesota.

MTSU coach Kermit Davis will tell you he likes this team almost as much as those that dispatched the Spartans and Golden Gophers to early spring vacations. Can the Blue Raiders match what the 2016-17 teams and win the C-USA tournament? Would the selection committee give them a pass if they didn’t?

Team to beat: Middle Tennessee

Of course, it’s Middle Tennessee, that hiccup against Marshall in the regular-season finale notwithstanding. Before that, the Blue Raiders had won 11 straight.

This is a team that’s built for postseason damage. Start with 6-7 forward Nick King, the graduate transfer who began his career at Memphis, transferred to Alabama, where he played only seven games because of illness, and then dominated C-USA, finishing second in scoring (21.2 ppg) and fifth in rebounding (8.4 rpg).

MTSU also has a great equalizer in 6-10 senior post man Brandon Walters, who led the league in field-goal percentage (64.1) and was 12th in blocked shots (0.9 bpg). And then there are the two 6-2 senior guards, Giddy Potts and Ed Simpson. Potts is tied for the most wins in an MTSU career (99) and is one of the league’s best 3-point shooters.

Most to gain: Western Kentucky

The Hilltoppers will have to win the tournament to have a chance to advance to the NCAAs, but they could be a scary bunch in the Dance. Just ask Purdue, which WKU beat in the Battle 4 Atlantis in November. With a bulky low-post tandem of 6-7 senior Justin Johnson and 6-9 graduate transfer Dwight Coleby, and an experienced point guard (Darius Thompson) who has previously played at Tennessee and Virginia, the Hilltoppers cower from no opponent. And though their roster is threadbare, with only nine scholarship players, they have enough talent to be dangerous. Coach Rick Stansbury knows his way around the Big Dance, having taken six of his Mississippi State teams there.

Most to lose: Middle Tennessee

If the Blue Raiders were to lose in the C-USA tournament, would the NCAA selection committee give them a break and allow them into the big show or relegate them to the NIT, which Middle Tennessee has in its back pocket by winning the C-USA regular-season title?

Potential NCAA play-in game: Middle Tennessee vs. Old Dominion

In Conference USA, the championship game is almost always an NCAA play-in game.

Bottom-feeder a bubble team doesn’t want to see: Southern Miss

The Golden Eagles’ backcourt tandem of 6-2 junior Cortez Edwards and 5-10 junior Tyree Griffin can be tough to deal with in a tournament. Edwards set the school single-season record for steals (66) and was third in the league (2.1 spg), and Griffin finished third in C-USA in assists (5.9 apg) and was fourth in steals (1.8). Southern Miss finished third in the nation in turnovers per game (9.7) and was 11th in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.5-1), so it’s not a team that generally beats itself with careless mistakes

Player to watch: Jon Elmore, Marshall

The versatile 6-3 junior point guard has racked up some numbers this year. He’s the only player in the nation averaging at least 22 points, six rebounds and six assists. And he’s one of only two players in the nation in the top 10 in scoring and assists (Oklahoma’s Trae Young is the other). Elmore led Conference USA in scoring and assists, and he comes into the tournament on a tear from 3-point range. In his last three regular-season games, Elmore made 17 3s and shot 50 percent from behind the arc.

Three X-factors

Ajdin Penava, Marshall: The 6-9 junior led the nation in blocked shots (124, 4.43 bpg) and is also a threat to make the occasional 3-pointer. Rim protection is of vital importance in a survive-and-advance setting.

Ahmad Caver, Old Dominion: Despite being sidelined by a stomach virus in the Monarchs’ second-to-last regular-season game, the 6-2 junior guard finished 20th in the nation in minutes played (37.0) and finished second in Conference USA in assists (6.2 apg) and steals (2.2 spg). His assist-to-turnover ratio was an impressive 3-1, and he can also make 3-pointers (36.0).

Chris Cokely, UAB: Cokely finished seventh in the league in scoring (17.2 ppg), second in rebounding (8.7 rpg) and third in field-goal percentage (58.4). In the Blazers’ surprisingly easy 101-76 rout of Western Kentucky in the regular-season finale, Cokely and fellow frontcourt mate William Lee combined for 35 points, eight rebounds, nine assists and two blocked shots. UAB’s low-post tandem is among the best in C-USA.

Around the rim

UTSA (No. 5 seed): The Roadrunners might have been a popular dark-horse pick to win the tournament had it not been for a season-ending ACL injury to star freshman guard Jhivvan Jackson. Jackson had been averaging 18.4 points and was fifth in the nation among freshman scorers. Jackson sustained the injury in a Feb. 24 game against Louisiana Tech.

North Texas (No. 7 seed): The Mean Green showed marked improvement in coach Grant McCasland’s first season, winning seven more games overall and six more in C-USA than they did a year ago. But losing five of their last six didn’t exactly prepare them for the stretch run.

FIU (No. 8 seed): The Panthers won three of their last four games, the only loss coming to Old Dominion in the season finale, so they’ve got some momentum going into a first-round matchup against Southern Miss. FIU beat the Golden Eagles in early February.

Louisiana Tech (No. 10 seed): La Tech lost its last four games, three of them on the road. The Bulldogs, who dropped more than their share of close games this season, can claim a narrow win over their first-round opponent. In mid-January, they beat North Texas, 66-65 behind 46 points from 6-3 freshmen guard Amorei Archibald (21) and 6-7 freshman forward Anthony Duruji (25).

FAU (No. 11 seed): The Owls didn’t close on a good note, losing to Charlotte, which failed to make the tournament after winning just two league games. But center Ronald Delph, who started his career at Auburn, has developed into a reliable two-way threat this season, leading FAU in scoring (14.4 ppg), rebounding (8.7 rpg) and blocks (2.1 bpg).

UTEP (No. 12 seed): The Miners won three of their last four games to slide into the final tournament slot. Roosevelt Smart (18.8 ppg, 38.8 3PT) and Ryan Woolridge (13.1 ppg, 5.5 apg), both 6-3 sophomores, form a solid guard tandem.

And the winner is …

Middle Tennessee. The Red Raiders dominated C-USA during the regular season and seems built for postseason success. Count on the Blue Raiders making their third straight NCAA appearance.

(AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)