Preseason picks in any sport can be a fool’s errand. In MLS, that certainly has been proven true many times over the years. That hasn’t stopped anyone from giving it a shot, though, and as the 2021 season gets underway our staff tried their best to foresee the future.
What they settled on, as it turns out, followed something of an ongoing trend for what was once a parity-obsessed league: Clear, unmistakeable favorites.
Read up on our expert picks below.
| Writer | MVP pick |
|---|---|
Felipe Cárdenas | |
Chris Kamrani | |
Pablo Maurer | |
Matt Pentz | |
Jeff Rueter | |
Sam Stejskal | |
Paul Tenorio |
Maurer: It’s not complicated. Vela is the best player in the league and among the only elite players in MLS who plays at his potential or above it every single week. If the Mexican striker can stay healthy, he has to be considered the odds-on favorite to win the award.
Cardenas: Since 2018, only Josef Martínez and Zlatan Ibrahimovic have been able to challenge Carlos Vela for league MVP. Zlatan is back with AC Milan and Martínez will use 2021 to recover his form following ACL surgery last March. Columbus’ Lucas Zelarayán and Toronto’s Alejandro Pozuelo, the reigning MVP from a shortened 2020 season, will provide Vela with ample competition. Yet, goals are what separate Vela from this group. The Mexican can score in buckets and that will be the difference this season as well.
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Rueter: Spoilers ahead, but a safe way to pick an MVP is to choose the best player on the league’s best regular season team. While the Loons had been competitive for 18 months by the time Reynoso arrived, his inclusion into the lineup turned them from a solid playoff team to a side that was fifteen minutes away from making MLS Cup. With Robin Lod and Ethan Finlay returning, Ramón Ábila aboard to reunite the former Boca Juniors duo and Minnesota working to add fellow Argentine Franco Fragapane to replace Kevin Molino at left wing, Bebelo should have every chance to win the league’s assist crown — as well as its top individual honor.
Kamrani: I called Zelarayán’s brace in MLS Cup last season. I might as well roll with the dude again in 2021.
Stejskal: Vela barely played last year due to a combination of pandemic-related concerns and injury, but the Mexican is still the best player in the league. He’s also very much not involved with his national team program — a key consideration in a season when many stars will miss substantial chunks due to international duty. Add those two things together, and you’ve got a recipe for a second MLS MVP campaign in three years for the 32-year-old attacker.
Tenorio: Vela told the LA Times he wants to push for another MVP award, and that was enough to convince me to put him here.
| Writer | Golden Boot pick |
|---|---|
Felipe Cárdenas | |
Chris Kamrani | |
Pablo Maurer | |
Matt Pentz | |
Jeff Rueter | |
Sam Stejskal | |
Paul Tenorio |
Rueter: Look, Vela’s a boring pick — I’m yawning just typing it. However, this summer will bring a Gold Cup, the Euros, and a Copa América. That’s going to pull a huge number of talismanic figures out of their clubs for extended stretches of time. While contenders like Josef Martínez, Raúl Ruidíaz and Gyasi Zardes are likely to be representing their countries, this is another case where Vela’s continued absence from El Tri is great news for Los Angeles FC.
Pentz: Welcome back, Josef. MLS is a better and vastly more entertaining league with Atlanta’s charismatic leading man on the field. Given that the previous 12 months have felt like half-a-decade, at least, Martinez’s knee injury seems like it happened ages ago even if it was just last February. Martinez is still just 27; he should be able to bounce back strong. He plays for a team that will both provide him service and lean on him for production. I think Vela will edge him for MVP given my theory that LAFC is due for (another) big season, but Josef should bag plenty of goals.
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Kamrani: Assuming this is the year Diego Valeri and Sebastian Blanco each tally 10-plus assists, I’m predicting most of them go to Mora, who finally overtakes Jeremy Ebobisse for the full-time No. 9 role in Portland and bangs in 23 goals.
Cardenas: I have to admire Pentz’s belief that Josef Martínez will continue where he left off in 2019. That’s the best way to endear yourself to Atlanta United’s fanbase. However, Martínez scored 29 goals that season, and Vela won the Golden Boot with 34. The four Golden Boot winners before that scores 31, 24 (twice), and 22. I don’t think the Venezuelan will bag 20 goals in 2021. That leaves Carlos Vela with little competition for this year’s Golden Boot. (I do like Kamrani’s shout for Felipe Mora, though; lots of reason to believe the Chilean should break out this season.)
Tenorio: I was going to vote for the Crew’s Gyasi Zardes, but I think he’s going to miss a good chunk of time at the Gold Cup this summer. Vela is going to win this en route to his MVP award.
| Writer | Pick in the West |
|---|---|
Felipe Cárdenas | |
Chris Kamrani | |
Pablo Maurer | |
Matt Pentz | |
Jeff Rueter | |
Sam Stejskal | |
Paul Tenorio |
Rueter: Now in their fifth MLS season, the Loons have taken steps forward year-over-year with each new campaign. After missing out on a first MLS Cup appearance in excruciating fashion, it’s silverware-or-bust to make up for that subsidence in Seattle. Adrian Heath isn’t one to minimize the importance of any game, and calculated additions this offseason have kept much of last year’s starting lineup in Saint Paul. Without a glaring weakness among its top-20 players, they may be the Western team best equipped to navigate a heavy international season.
Pentz: This might sound like an odd thing to say about a team that finished seventh in the conference and went one-and-out in the playoffs last season, but LAFC just seems like the team with the fewest glaring question marks. (The Loons could also make that case, but I think LAFC has a much higher ceiling.) Seattle is going to badly miss Jordan Morris, Sporting is too inconsistent, Portland struggles to defend in crunch time and Dallas doesn’t have the horses. By process of elimination, give me Bob Bradley’s crew, a highly talented squad coming off a nightmare campaign and thus motivated to finally make good on their MLS Cup potential.
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Cardenas: Even without Sebastián Blanco, the Timbers are a club that understands their tactical DNA (compact defending, slower tempo in possession and precise counter attacks). It’s not sexy, but it has proven to be effective. LAFC is the obvious choice here, and Jeff’s nod towards Minnesota shouldn’t be overlooked. If Portland can get more from Eryk Williamson in the attacking third and consistent game-changing performances from Yimmi Chará, their defensive identity should earn them valuable points in a competitive Western Conference.
Kamrani: Matt (above) basically laid it out better than I ever could so I’ll just say: LAFC has learned the harsh lessons of coming up short in its historically-good first two seasons in the league. They don’t have a true No. 9, but don’t need one. It is scary, though, to have the entire course of your season hinge on the health of one player. If Carlos Vela is ever out for an extended period of time, who shoulders the load like he can?
Tenorio: Sporting KC
People forget that Sporting finished atop the West last year, and that they are returning the bulk of their offensive options: Gadi Kinda, Alan Pulido and Johnny Russell. I like Pulido to turn in a big season for SKC. Everyone else on staff is picking LAFC, so I’ve gotta be a bit different.
| Writer | Pick in the East |
|---|---|
Felipe Cárdenas | |
Chris Kamrani | |
Pablo Maurer | |
Matt Pentz | |
Jeff Rueter | |
Sam Stejskal | |
Paul Tenorio |
Maurer: I’d say this is a borderline risky prediction based on the personel the Union lost last year — Brendon Aaronsen and Mark McKenzie — and how meagerly they’ve spent this offseason. The loss of Ray Gaddis (and his veteran presence), that too should be accounted for, especially in the locker room. Yet the bulk of the group that lifted the Supporters’ Shield in 2020 has returned, and the large majority of those players still have several usable years left in the tank. There’s no small part of me that wants the Union to just go out and spend, to replace the talent they’ve sold with higher-profile stars from abroad, but then again, that just wouldn’t be the Philly way. It doesn’t hurt things that — outside of the Columbus Crew — I’m not seeing any particular club in the East that looks terribly determined to win this thing.
Kamrani: If you were constructing a model MLS roster in 2021, it would be the Crew. High-end designated players, proven goal-scorers in the league, dynamic two-way midfielders and a back line that has had to play in Dallas and Houston in August. What’s more, the Crew only got better with their offseason additions. Kevin Molino is gonna recover from injury and be “6th Man” of the Year.
Rueter: I could wax poetic about Revs boss Bruce Arena finally having the team he wants, a blend of quality DPs and trusted MLS lifers. I could talk about the club’s surprising run to the conference final last year as a catalyst for momentum. I could point out that Caleb Porter never made the postseason in consecutive seasons when he was with Portland as a cause for concern in Columbus. Or I could just let my heart do the talking. For DOGSO!
Stejskal: The Crew have a clear and defined system, they’re at least two-deep at just about every position and, after blitzing Seattle to win MLS Cup in December, they went out and got better this offseason. Zelarayán, Artur and Darlington Nagbe were already the best midfield trio in MLS; Columbus added to that group an older, improving Aidan Morris, the star performer of MLS Cup, and veteran Perry Kitchen. Gyasi Zardes was one of the most effective No. 9s in the league; offseason acquisition Bradley Wright-Phillips will be the starter when he’s with the USMNT. Luis Diaz, Pedro Santos and Derrick Etienne made for a dynamic group of wingers; new signings Kevin Molino and Alexandru Matan, both of whom can also play inside, make them much, much better, even if Molino is out for the next little bit. I’m Ffeling very good about locking in the Crew.
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Tenorio: I actually thought about sticking a darkhorse Orlando City up here, but I’m not sure what’s going to happen with Daryl Dike and I think Alexandre Pato is still an unknown. Don’t sleep on the Lions, though. What Sam wrote above is all true. Columbus is going to run the East.
Cardenas: Agree with Paul here. Orlando City are always going to be good under Oscar Pareja, but who’s going to score for them in 2021? Depending on Pato and Nani could make Orlando extremely one dimensional. The Crew, on the other hand, are a free-flowing team that don’t need their No. 9 to dominate in order to outscore their opponents. I really like the Union, but Columbus are a deeper side with a lot of momentum.
| Writer | Shield pick |
|---|---|
Felipe Cárdenas | |
Chris Kamrani | |
Pablo Maurer | |
Matt Pentz | |
Jeff Rueter | |
Sam Stejskal | |
Paul Tenorio |
Stejskal: Think things set up just a bit more favorably for Columbus than they do for LAFC, my pick to win the West. The schedule is a bit tougher for LAFC than it is for Columbus, and the Crew shouldn’t be hit as hard by international call-ups over the summer (they’ll miss Zardes and perhaps goalkeeper Eloy Room and Molino for some stretches; LAFC will likely be without Diego Rossi, Jose Cifuentes, Diego Palacios, Mark-Anthony Kaye and Brian Rodriguez, if he returns from his loan to Almería). In this battle of the Black-and-Gold, I give the edge to the originals. Crew for the Shield.
| Writer | MLS Cup winner |
|---|---|
Felipe Cárdenas |  Los Angeles FC over Orlando |
Chris Kamrani |  Columbus over Los Angeles FC |
Pablo Maurer |  Philadelphia over Los Angeles FC |
Matt Pentz | Los Angeles FC over Philadelphia |
Jeff Rueter | Los Angeles FC over Columbus |
Sam Stejskal | Los Angeles FC over Columbus |
Paul Tenorio |  Portland over New England |
Rueter: A No.1 seed hasn’t represented either conference in MLS Cup since Toronto FC won their treble in 2017. And while my 2021 picks for those seeds (the Loons and Revs) each bring strong rosters into the postseason, it’s hard to bet against the trend. In their fourth year, LAFC is hungrier than ever to finish the job and win the postseason. They won’t have an easy road, having to go against a Minnesota side which has historically matched up well before getting to the defending champions. However, Bob Bradley and Carlos Vela have achieved plenty in the City of Angels, and an MLS Cup victory would cement this as one of the best four-year runs of any team (expansion or otherwise) in recent memory.
Pentz: My East representative was a toss-up between the defending champion Crew and the Union, then I saw Jeff’s pick above and decided to go contrarian. This would be a wonderful final: Jim Curtin’s flashy-but-hard-nosed Union versus Bob Bradley’s LAFC finally on the cusp of glory. This is the rare final where the Union might rather have it played away from home: with Philly’s mostly tortured sports history, Subaru Park has a tendency to get anxious during big matches. That’s especially true when the Union goes behind early, which LAFC has more than enough firepower to accomplish. Even after underwhelming for most of last season, I still think LAFC is as loaded as anybody in the league. I trust Bob Bradley to make his moving pieces work. They’ve had some bad luck in knockout competitions past, but those bounces tend to even out eventually.
Maurer: Matt, I’m sticking with the Union. Again, they’re amongst the league’s most consistent sides. Even after winning their first meaningful trophy, I still think that the expectations on the club are fairly low, something Philly has always taken advantage of. In every year of their existence, the Union have made incremental progress — I don’t expect this year to be any different, and the club is running out of room before they hit the top of the mountain. I’m picking Philly over LAFC, and if I can plug a bit of fan fiction in here, it will be a 35-year-old Ilsinho who eviscerates everyone on the right side of the field for the late winner.
Kamrani: It would be very MLS to have a league original re-establish itself as a titan and two-time champion just as the spiffy high-profile clubs are getting attention (and most of our picks). But I’ll be wrong. Watch. Austin FC will beat Chicago Fire in a shootout that goes 25 players long.
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Stejskal: Predicting a playoff result before the season even begins is foolish as hell, but here we are. Columbus beat LAFC for the Shield, but the Californians have more match-winners than the Crew. That’ll be the difference in the Cup, which LAFC will win for the first time in its otherwise wildly successful history.
Cardenas: The obvious predicted final would be the Crew versus LAFC. They’re the class of their respective conferences and have plenty of talent to navigate MLS’s tricky single-elimination playoff format. However, the East bracket will be more of a gauntlet, and I like Orlando City’s ability to become a bracket buster. The Lions will battle their way towards their first MLS Cup final appearance before being outpaced and outplayed by Carlos Vela and LAFC.
Tenorio: I’ve got this theory going right now that the Portland Timbers could win a treble by winning just 12 games: four wins in CONCACAF Champions League, four wins in the U.S. Open Cup and four wins in the MLS Cup playoffs. Yes, you might have to factor in the three games to open the MLS season, which will determine who makes the Open Cup, and maybe you even pick up a win in an away leg of a CCL series. So that makes it what, 16 wins? Yeah, I’ll take a treble in 16 games. I said it on Allocation Disorder and I’m sticking to it here: Portland to win it all.
(Photo: Shaun Clark / Getty Images)