Ken Holland made a smart bet on an underrated defenceman at the 2020 deadline. It worked out poorly, but that hasn’t stopped him from trying the same tactic again in 2021.
In 2020, the target was Mike Green and the cost was a fourth-round pick that could become a third given some playoff success. This year, it’s Dmitry Kulikov, and the cost is a fourth-round pick that could become a third given some playoff success.
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The Green bet didn’t work. A post-deadline injury and subsequent decision to opt out of the NHL’s return to play meant Edmonton got precious little for its draft pick. The Oilers are hoping for better luck with Kulikov, a player who has been connected to the team in rumour going back to his days as an up-and-comer with the Florida Panthers.
Once Kulikov arrives, he will become the sixth left-shot defenceman to play for the Oilers this year. It’s helpful to look at his role and on-ice results compared to the rest of the players Edmonton has dressed at that position this season:
Player | ATOI | TOI vs. Elite | DZS/60 | xGA/60 | xG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20.8 | 356 | 6 | 2.58 | 51% | |
16.3 | 280 | 13 | 1.93 | 54% | |
16.2 | 175 | 11 | 1.96 | 44% | |
12.8 | 65 | 9 | 2.02 | 42% | |
12.7 | 87 | 7 | 2.05 | 53% | |
10.6 | 55 | 8 | 2.60 | 45% |
Darnell Nurse plays a specific role in Edmonton, with his pairing generally matched to the Oilers’ top line. That means lots of minutes in offensive situations and against quality opponents. Needless to say, the addition of Kulikov doesn’t change much for him.
It’s a different story for Kris Russell, currently holding down the second-pair job at even strength. By each of the metrics shown here, Kulikov looks superior. In comparison to Russell, he’s spent more time this season playing against tough opponents and starting in the defensive zone, while also having superior expected results in both goals against and overall goal differential.
The younger players at the bottom of the depth chart aren’t direct comparables. William Lagesson and Caleb Jones aren’t trusted with the kinds of matchups or defensive situations that either Kulikov or Russell have been this season. It’s harder to get a read on Slater Koekkoek, given how much time he’s missed, but at best he’s a question mark after a long layoff due to injury.
What this means for Edmonton’s five-on-five depth chart seems obvious. Although the Oilers’ coaches have shown they trust the low-event Russell more than Jones or Lagesson, he’s been a poor fit on Larsson’s pair. The two have limited the bleeding defensively (2.15 GA/60, just 1.92 xGA/60) in tough minutes, but only at the cost of entirely sacrificing offence (1.61 GF/60, 1.33 xGF/60).
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The hope is certainly that Kulikov will be more of a two-way presence, and the data suggests he will be, especially by comparison.
One way to measure this for defencemen is to look at how frequently they keep possession while exiting the defensive zone. Last year, according to data collected by Corey Sznajder, Kulikov was above-average in this regard, ranking in the 61st percentile in controlled exits per hour and the 72nd percentile in terms of percentage of exits that were made with control. Russell was in the 36th and 19th percentiles, respectively.
In this regard, Kulikov’s 2020 numbers were actually better than those of Jones, whose puck-moving ability has historically been a good match for Larsson. (I know the “good match” claim will meet with some skepticism, but over the past two years the Jones-Larsson pairing has a 51 percent expected goal share and a 54 percent actual goal share at five-on-five.)
If that continues, there’s a chance that Kulikov will combine the traits of Larsson’s two partners, providing the low-event defensive reliability of Russell with the quality puck movement of Jones. That’s a best-case outcome, to be sure, but it’s easy to understand why the Oilers decided to roll the dice on this specific player.
That also lets the Oilers run the Russell-Bear duo as a third pair. The two players have meshed well together this season: In 109 minutes as a tandem, the Oilers have a 56 percent expected goal share and have actually outscored their opponents by a 4-2 margin.
The acquisition is certainly bad news for Jones and Lagesson, who until now have rotated through the third-pair left-side slot. They’ll have to wait either for injuries or nights when the Oilers want to shake up what they have or give veterans a rest. Those nights will come; Edmonton has a playoff spot all but locked up and will close out the season with their final 10 games taking place over just 18 days, including a pair of back-to-backs.
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Kulikov is also likely to take on some penalty-killing work. He’s been a regular in that role since his third NHL season, with mixed results over the years. He got tons of minutes with an unsuccessful Devils kill this year but has been more successful in the past with both Winnipeg and Florida. His presence will give Edmonton five regular penalty killers in the top-six, with only offensive specialist Tyson Barrie excluded from the group.
On the whole, he’s an inexpensive solution to a specific problem and an easy acquisition to like.
• Data from Natural Stat Trick and Puck IQ was used in this article.
(Photo: Andy Marlin / Getty Images)