Jason Licht’s eighth draft as Buccaneers general manager is just weeks away, and with Tampa Bay still celebrating a Super Bowl victory over the Chiefs on their home field, it’s a chance to look back on the drafts that built a championship roster.
As much was made of quarterback Tom Brady and the impact of free-agent additions last fall, seven starters on each side of the ball were Tampa Bay draft picks, and all seven on defense came in the past three drafts, creating quite a young nucleus.
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So which draft has been Licht’s best? It’s hard to evaluate more recent classes because they haven’t had as much time to both make an impact and develop in their young careers. You’re weighing upside and promise against actual year-in-year-out production; Licht’s early classes set the foundation on offense in current leaders like receiver Mike Evans and offensive linemen Donovan Smith and Ali Marpet, whose contributions now can be appreciated over six and seven seasons of consistent, steady play.
To add a numerical assessment to each draft class, we’re using “Approximate Value,” a Pro Football Reference stat that quantifies a player’s impact and can translate somewhat to all positions. We take the combined career Approximate Value for each draft class and divide by the number of seasons to find an “Approximate Value per year” for the class — for the Bucs, that number ranges from 8 to 30 within Licht’s seven years.
1. 2018: One pick, two trades yield three key defensive starters
The picks: DT Vita Vea, RB Ronald Jones, CB M.J. Stewart, CB Carlton Davis, G Alex Cappa, S Jordan Whitehead, WR Justin Watson, LB Jack Cichy
The numbers: Eight players, seven still with the Bucs, eight still on NFL rosters. The career Approximate Value per year is 26.0, with five starters averaging between 4.3 and 5.3 per year
Overall: How often does one trade benefit two teams as well as the deal that saw the Bucs trade down with the Bills from No. 7 to No. 12? Buffalo got a franchise quarterback in Josh Allen, and the Bucs still got Vea and added two second-round picks, one of which was traded again to yield Davis and Whitehead, both starters in the Super Bowl secondary. Jones has led the Bucs in rushing in each of the last two seasons and Cappa is a two-year starter at right guard, so you have five impact starters from a single draft class. Stewart was a miss, cut before last season, but even Watson has been a solid special-teams contributor. Their rookie contracts will expire next spring, and while Vea will be back on his fifth-year option for 2022, the Bucs will have to pay well to keep Davis, Whitehead, Cappa and Jones. Unless Tampa Bay moves on from some of its oldest players after this season, it will be hard to keep this draft class all back on new deals.
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Best pick: A healthy Vea in 2021 could take the next step to become a Pro Bowl talent, but for now, we’ll go with Davis, who was the fourth Bucs pick in this class but has emerged as a top-tier corner, often lined up against opponents’ top receiving threat. He could be in line for a franchise tag next year if the Bucs can’t lock up him to a long-term extension. As a fourth-round pick, Whitehead has quietly been a great find, with two interceptions and nine tackles for loss last season, plus a crucial forced fumble in the playoffs against Green Bay. If the Bucs lose some of his draft class in free agency, they could have their best haul of compensatory draft picks ever.
2. 2019: A much-needed influx of defensive speed and talent
The picks: ILB Devin White, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB Jamel Dean, S Mike Edwards, OLB Anthony Nelson, K Matt Gay, WR Scotty Miller, DT Terry Beckner
The numbers: Eight picks, six still with the Bucs, seven still on NFL rosters. The career Approximate Value per year is 30.0, best among the seven classes, led by White (11.0 average)
Overall: This class is a central part of the Bucs’ improved defense. Consider that in the four Bucs playoff games, White and Murphy-Bunting had a hand in seven takeaways, with SMB getting interceptions in three straight games and White getting two picks and two fumble recoveries. Dean had one of the biggest plays of the season with a pick-six off Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and Edwards and Nelson were super-subs on that same defense. Don’t forget Miller’s touchdown catch before halftime in Green Bay; he’s the best impact player Licht has drafted in the sixth round or later in his seven years, and it’s not even close (remembering Cam Brate and Adam Humphries weren’t drafted).
Best pick: As much as the defensive backs have grown, it still starts with White, who has shown there’s good reason to put a high draft pick into an inside linebacker. He came on in the final month of his rookie season with two touchdowns, and in 2020, he emerged as an emotional leader on defense; his return from a COVID-19 absence in the Saints playoff game was a boost (with Vea a week later) that took the defense to championship level. The Bucs got good value in Murphy-Bunting, and credit to Licht for flipping the No. 70 pick in this draft to get 94 and 99 (two third-round picks from one) and landing Dean and Edwards with those selections.
3. 2015: Four major contributors, two entering Year 7 with the Bucs
The picks: QB Jameis Winston, T Donovan Smith, G Ali Marpet, LB Kwon Alexander, WR Kenny Bell, WR Kaelin Clay, FB Joey Iosefa
The numbers: Seven picks, two still with the Bucs, four still on NFL rosters. The career Approximate Value per year is 29.3, second-best among the seven Licht classes, with Winston (10.8 average) ahead of Smith (9.4) and Marpet (7.8) despite barely playing last year with the Saints
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Overall: Winston was the No. 1 overall pick and holds the Bucs’ career passing records for yards and touchdowns in five years as a starter. The Bucs moved on from him after the 2019 season, but the two second-round offensive linemen, Smith and Marpet, are both entering their seventh years as starters. Smith has started 94 games, Marpet 85, so both have a chance to pass 100 career starts in 2021, something only three Bucs offensive linemen joining the team in the last 30 years have done. Alexander made a Pro Bowl in 2017 before signing with the 49ers two years ago and has been limited by injuries. You also can include receiver Adam Humphries, who was an undrafted rookie in this class and totaled 219 catches in four seasons in Tampa.
Best pick: Smith and Marpet both have exceeded expectations for second-round picks, but we’ll go with Marpet, who was picked 27 picks after Smith at No. 61. It’s another case of Licht going the extra step to get a prospect he likes, as the Bucs moved up four spots from 65 to 61 to get Marpet, at the minimal cost of dropping from 109 to 128 in the same draft. Marpet has started full seasons at three different spots on the line but has settled in nicely at left guard, next to Smith, who just re-signed for two more years as Brady’s blind-side protector.
4. 2020: Two every-down standouts win rings as rookies
The picks: T Tristan Wirfs, S Antoine Winfield, RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, WR Tyler Johnson, DT Khalil Davis, LB Chapelle Russell, RB Ray Calais
The numbers: Seven picks, five still with the Bucs, seven still on NFL rosters. The career Approximate Value per year is 21.0, fourth-highest among the seven Licht classes, led by Wirfs (10.0 average) and Winfield (7.0)
Overall: In Wirfs and Winfield, the Bucs hit home runs with their first two picks. Wirfs played every snap on offense as the starting right tackle, part of an improved offensive line that protected new quarterback Tom Brady remarkably well. Winfield played more snaps than any defensive rookie in the NFL, proving himself a playmaker with key takeaways and game-clinching moments. The rest of the class had a limited impact, but on a veteran-loaded championship team, it can be hard to get on the field. Johnson, even with only 12 catches and two touchdowns, had flashes of great play. Vaughn had a quiet rookie year, but remember that two years earlier, that was Jones.
Best pick: This isn’t an easy one. Wirfs was the fourth tackle taken and arguably the best of the lot, with Licht giving up a fourth-round spot to slide up one pick and make sure he got him. But Winfield looked like a first-rounder all season despite going 45th and got better in the playoffs. His forced fumble against the Saints when the Bucs trailed by a touchdown was an enormous turning point, and his peace-sign yes-I’ll-gladly-take-that-penalty gesture at Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill was one of the most memorable images of the Super Bowl victory. We’ll totally hedge this and give it to both, as they each far exceeded expectations and make it hard to have this class ranked fourth.
5. 2014: Evans a true gem, but not much else
The picks: WR Mike Evans, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, RB Charles Sims, OL Kadeem Edwards, OL Kevin Pamphile, WR Robert Herron
The numbers: Six picks, one still with the Bucs, one still on NFL rosters. The career Approximate Value per year is 13.4, fifth-highest among Licht’s classes, with Evans (9.2 average) accounting for more than two-thirds of that score
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Overall: Licht’s first draft is a testament to the idea that if you nail your top draft pick, the rest of the class doesn’t matter too much. Taking Evans at No. 7 was a great read of talent when some wanted his quarterback, Johnny Manziel. Seferian-Jenkins was an off-field risk that cost the Bucs, and while the versatile Sims had 1,090 yards from scrimmage in 2015, he didn’t play after his rookie season. This class is ranked lower because of the lack of depth in impact, but Evans has been everything the Bucs needed from Licht’s first pick.
Best pick: In Evans, the Bucs have not only their career leader in touchdown catches and the only player in NFL history to open his career with seven straight 1,000-yard seasons but also their 2020 Man of the Year. So few players from the 2014 first round are still with their original team, especially at receiver, and Evans is exceptional that way.
6. 2017: A steal in Godwin, but injuries spoil great promise
The picks: TE O.J. Howard, S Justin Evans, WR Chris Godwin, LB Kendell Beckwith, RB Jeremy McNichols, DT Stevie Tu’ikolovatu
The numbers: Six picks, two still with the Bucs, three still on NFL rosters. The career Approximate Value per year is 12.8, sixth-highest among Licht’s seven classes, with Godwin (6.5 average) the highest
Overall: Finding Godwin in the third round might be the best value pick of Licht’s tenure as general manager, but the rest of the class has been doomed by injuries. Howard missed most of last season with a torn Achilles but has a chance to return in a big way in 2021. Evans, a starter in his first two seasons, hasn’t played in two years due to multiple foot surgeries and is no longer with the team, and Beckwith, after a promising rookie year, injured his ankle in a car accident in 2018 and never played again. McNichols is remembered more because the Bucs were on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” that season, and after bouncing around the league for three years with almost no impact, he rushed for 204 yards with the Titans this past year.
Best pick: Godwin was an absolute find at No. 84 overall, the 11th receiver taken; only one player in this class (JuJu Smith-Schuster, 26) has more touchdown catches than Godwin’s 24. He’ll make $16 million on a franchise tag this season and will be in line for a huge contract in free agency next spring. Howard, due to make $6 million on his fifth-year option this fall, is very much in a make-or-break year, with a chance to shine opposite Rob Gronkowski if he can just stay healthy.
7. 2016: Hargreaves headlines a lost year
The picks: DB Vernon Hargreaves, DE Noah Spence, K Roberto Aguayo, CB Ryan Smith, OL Caleb Benenoch, LB Devante Bond, FB Danny Vitale
The numbers: Seven picks, zero still with the Bucs, six still on NFL rosters. The career Approximate Value per year is 8.8, easily the lowest of Licht’s seven classes, with Hargreaves (3.6 average) as the highest, and some of that earned with the Texans
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Overall: This was a rough class from the start. The Bucs traded up to draft Aguayo in the second round and he was gone after one bad year. Shoulder injuries derailed Spence, who had 5.5 sacks as a rookie but has just two in four years since. The Bucs’ defensive emergence started when Hargreaves was cut in the middle of the 2019 season, after just two interceptions in three-plus seasons in Tampa. And of the six still on rosters, only three played in 2020 (Spence was injured, Vitale opted out, Aguayo was on Patriots’ practice squad).
The top nine picks in the 2016 draft all earned second contracts worth at least $14 million a year. Quarterbacks Jared Goff and Carson Wentz haven’t lived up to those deals, but what follows is solid: Joey Bosa, Ezekiel Elliott, Jalen Ramsey, Ronnie Stanley, DeForest Buckner, Jack Conklin, Leonard Floyd. Then there’s Eli Apple at 10, now on his fourth team, and Hargreaves at 11, earning $1.3 million in 2021 from the Texans.
Best pick: Smith was a special-teams standout for five years, just last month signing with the Chargers. But it’s telling when the only pick to finish his rookie contract from a draft class is a fourth-round pick who doesn’t contribute on offense or defense. It was nearly the opposite of the 2015 draft, which produced four every-down contributors. How bad was this 2016 class? Benenoch started every game at right guard for the Bucs in 2018, then was cut by five NFL teams in 2019.
(Top photo of Mike Evans: Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)