Devising a five-year plan alongside a one-year version takes some imagination, whether you’re a baseball team, a hedge fund manager or… yourself. There isn’t really a definitive blueprint, and in all likelihood, any attempt would bear only a passing resemblance to last year’s venture.
But it must be done, certainly in sports. The five-year plan informs the one-year plan, if not tomorrow’s decisions and next week’s. Contract lengths. Salary projections. Development arcs. Expected supply spikes when the timing justifies the demand.
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For the Rangers, the one-year plan is not materially different from what it has been the last few offseasons: develop. Develop young big-leaguers and younger prospects. Develop improved processes. Develop an identity and a culture. And make decisions along the way consistent with and in furtherance of those things.
The five-year plan is trickier. When he was in Texas as assistant general manager, Thad Levine made reference a year and a half before the Rangers won their first pennant to a five-step process that the club was in the midst of executing. That vision, hatched by Jon Daniels’ group in 2006, might not have anticipated two World Series in those next five years, but the steps that they took were certainly instrumental in the trajectory.
The trades of Mike Minor in August and Lance Lynn and Rafael Montero this month were made with the five-year plan in mind. There may be more veterans who follow, though the list of candidates for an impact deal is dwindling.
As things stand, we have a pretty clear picture of the one-year plan in Texas. But what about the longer-term vision? Let’s take a look, position by position.
CATCHER
The 2020 season began with a tandem of Robinson Chirinos and Jeff Mathis behind the plate but didn’t end that way. With Chirinos moving on to the Mets at the end of August, the plan was for Mathis to give Jose Trevino occasional days off down the stretch, just as the 16-year veteran had done the summer before. But when Trevino was felled by a wrist injury with 18 games to go this season, a door opened for Sam Huff.
Step Three of the process that Levine had discussed involves challenging key prospects as they get closer and, in some cases, throwing them into the acclimation fire to accelerate the process. The 22-year-old Huff was a lock to join the 40-man roster this winter, but with the need for someone to share the position with Mathis once Trevino was injured — and with the Rangers out of the race — Texas decided the time was right to challenge Huff. Get him some big-league at-bats. Have him game-plan and catch a handful of big-league veterans. See how he adjusts.
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The 6’5 catcher adjusted well, both offensively and behind the plate. His debut consisted of a mere 33 plate appearances and 78 innings caught, but they were important reps. Huff showed the Rangers that, despite no experience above Class A, he could handle the bat against major-league pitching (.355/.394/.742 with eye-opening barrel percentages and exit velocities) and flashed the game awareness that a catcher must have at the highest level.
The Rangers might look to limit the wear on Huff’s body defensively, given the right-handed power he could deliver. Occasional work at first base and perhaps DH would allow both Huff and Trevino to be in the lineup more often than not.
The Trevino-Huff tag team is more likely scribbled on the five-year plan than on the one-year whiteboard. In spite of doing everything he possibly could in September, Huff has more developmental work ahead — and as part of that, Texas will want him catching five days a week, not two. Whether his next assignment will be at the Double-A level in Frisco (where major/minor league catching instructor Bobby Wilson would be just 30 minutes away) or with Triple-A Round Rock remains to be seen. Chances are good that Huff will see major-league time in 2021 as well — just not at the start of the season.
The top long-term hope behind him in the system is David Garcia, who was added to the 40-man roster last month but has yet to play at a full-season minor-league level. Fellow 20-year-old Randy Florentino is behind him on the depth chart and is more of a bat-first backstop. Matt Whatley has fans in the organization. Texas brought Yohel Pozo back in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 Draft this month, three weeks after he’d taken free agency and signed with the Padres. In its latest mock draft, Baseball America has Texas taking University of Miami catcher Adrian Del Castillo with the second overall pick.
But if Trevino and Huff build off very promising 2020 seasons and continue to grow, the five-year vision behind the plate is fairly clear to see. Stability at catcher has long eluded this franchise, and it’s probably the most important position in the game at which to strive for it.
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FIRST BASE
The outlook at first base, both in the immediate and longer term, is far more encouraging today than it was just a month ago. The Rangers traded for a player who, despite always being at least two years young for his league, has hit .300 with a .944 OPS at the AA and AAA levels combined, flashing power and plate discipline in his brief taste of the big leagues.
And they also have the newly minted MVP of the Dominican Winter League.
In shipping three 20-year-old prospects to Tampa Bay for Nate Lowe (and fellow first baseman Jake Guenther), Texas added a player with a more well-rounded offensive profile than Ronald Guzman. Over parts of three seasons with the Rangers, the defensive force has made only the most marginal of improvements at the plate.
But Guzman just hit .360/.450/.523 in more than 130 winter plate appearances for Gigantes del Cibao, earning DWL MVP honors. As a big leaguer, the 26-year-old has struck out 28% of the time, with an 8.8 percent walk rate. This winter, the strikeouts were down to 18 percent and the walks up to 13 percent.
It sets up what could be Guzman’s final chance with Texas. He’s out of options and, given his lack of defensive versatility (not to be confused with his 80-grade physical flexibility), he’s not a candidate to settle into a bench role — or to clear waivers. If he wins the first base competition in camp, the Rangers can send Lowe to Round Rock on what would be a final option. If Lowe prevails, however, Guzman will probably be in a different big-league uniform by Opening Day.
Lowe accrued 145 days of major-league service the last two summers, 27 days short of a full year for service-time purposes. The benefit for the Rangers is that they have Lowe for six controllable years — seven, in the event that he spends fewer than 27 days in the majors in 2021 — taking him through his age-30 season. There are others who could factor in over the next few years: Sherten Apostel might end up at first base; Guenther, Curtis Terry, Blaine Crim and Dustin Harris have the chance to develop into candidates; Huff could figure in; and, under one scenario Joey Gallo could, as well. But Lowe is the player Texas is betting on.
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In his first remarks about the trade that sent outfielders Heriberto Hernandez and Alexander Ovalles and infielder Osleivis Basabe to the Rays, Rangers GM Jon Daniels suggested Lowe is on “[s]omewhat of a similar trajectory as Mitch Moreland — same school (Mississippi State) and a later-round draft pick, and has just really performed, hit at every level.”
Moreland hit .298/.366/.475 in AA and AAA — compare that to Lowe’s .300/.414/.530 at those levels. Moreland turned into a dependable starter on five Rangers playoff teams, including two World Series clubs. If the five-year blueprint didn’t include Lowe settling into his prime years, the Rangers would never have traded the players they did to get him.
SHORTSTOP
Normally, you wouldn’t hop from first base to shortstop in an exercise like this, but in the interest of efficiency, we need to work through the analysis here to set things up at second base. Jose Altuve, Keston Hiura and Rougned Odor notwithstanding, it’s rare for an eventual big-league starter to arrive in pro ball as a second baseman. Most started as shortstops.
There are a lot of ways things could go at second base, but let’s sort things out at shortstop first. In 2021, it will be Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who’s been asked to change his primary position every year he’s been in the majors. It might happen again in 2022.
My wife and I bought a house 23 years ago that was bigger than we needed and more than we could afford. But we couldn’t pass the opportunity up because it was where we eventually wanted to be and because we figured the cost — as tough as it would be to swallow — would be even more out of range by time we were in the market again. Worried that things might not line up so well when the timing was better, we jumped in.
It turned out to be a really good move for us. If the Rangers bite the bullet a year from now and sign Trevor Story — or Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor or Javy Báez — it will be a Step Five move well before Step Five should be in play. Cliff Lee was Step Five, as was Adrian Beltre six months later, as were Yu Darvish a year after that and Cole Hamels in 2015. If the Rangers could draw it up, they’d probably feel better if that shortstop class were two years away from free agency rather than one. They won’t be “a player away” going into 2022. But it might be an opportunity Texas decides it can’t pass up.
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The next contract that Story, Seager, Correa, Lindor and Báez each sign will outlast any present five-year plan. The Rangers are currently obligated to no player past 2022. On the assumption that the club is targeting next winter for its first significant payroll hike since 2016, shortstop seems like as good a place to focus as any. Freddie Freeman is slated to be a free agent as well, but the Rangers prefer to allocate the biggest dollars up the middle, not on a corner. Max Scherzer, Lance Lynn and Noah Syndergaard highlight next winter’s starting pitcher class, but long-term pitching deals carry more risk than position player commitments.
It would be surprising to see Texas sign Korean free agent Ha-seong Kim this offseason. As a shortstop, he’d all but take the Rangers out of next winter’s shortstop bonanza; surely, they don’t want that. As a third baseman, he’d be asked to switch positions once Josh Jung is ready; Kim would never want that. As a second baseman, he’d eliminate any real chance of Solak getting everyday at-bats, barring an injury to someone else. Regardless of where the Rangers would choose to play Kim, the expected cost to land the 25-year-old would probably be better devoted elsewhere on the roster. (And you’d have to think the positional variables here would steer him away from putting Texas atop his own wishlist.)
Signing one of the Big Five a year from now would be a vanguard deal, though it’s not as if the Rangers are devoid of internal options at shortstop looking ahead. Kiner-Falefa won a Gold Glove at third base, but he’s considered a better shortstop. Anderson Tejeda has every tool to stay at the position. Texas is expecting big years on the farm out of Chris Seise (after nearly a two-year layoff) and Maximo Acosta (set to make his pro debut).
Then there’s Jordan Lawlar, the Dallas Jesuit shortstop projected by MLB.com to go to Texas as the second selection in this summer’s amateur draft.
But as long as we’re whiteboarding for 2025, the idea of Story or Correa halfway into a long-term deal would be a pretty solid Plan A. Even if Lowe and Leody Taveras take the next step, even if Acosta and Josh Jung and Cole Winn check every box and bust the door down, even if David Dahl turns into an iron man and Gallo stays, the ceiling for this roster is probably “competitive.” Not late-October competitive.
Short of a Lee/Darvish addition — and maybe even more — signing a superstar shortstop in his prime would be as good a step as any to get there, particularly given the robust market rollout that awaits a year from now.
SECOND BASE
OK, back across the bag. Even in dry-erase marker, we aren’t allowed to slot one player in at two positions. Those are the Whiteboard Rules. So under the scenario that has a superstar shortstop coming to Texas, Kiner-Falefa makes his annual position switch: to second base, where his toolbox would stand out.
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But the Rangers’ 2020 Player of the Year will be a free agent after the 2023 season, and baseball cycles dictate making contingency plans. Kiner-Falefa could get on base 35 percent of the time and win Gold Gloves the next three seasons and price himself out of an extension, or he could be a defense-first, .700-OPS player who, at age 29, doesn’t make as much sense to commit payroll to as a younger player ready to contribute at the league minimum. There’s a sweet spot in between where Kiner-Falefa has a 10-year career with Texas, but assuming a shift going into 2024, where could the Rangers turn?
From the shortstop group we discussed, Tejeda has 700 innings at second base in his career and, especially if the offensive upside actualizes, he could be a great option. Seise and Acosta are considered pure shortstops, but so was Ian Kinsler until he got to Triple-A.
It will be interesting to see how Davis Wendzel is used in 2021. In the first-round pick’s two weeks of pro action his draft summer (2019), he played only third base, which had been his primary position at Baylor. He saw lots of time at shortstop at Fall Instructs that year, as had been the case the summer before in the Cape Cod League. There are some who believe Wendzel’s similarities to Justin Turner go beyond physical resemblance. Turner was used all over the field from the time he arrived in pro ball but was mainly a second baseman for the first seven years of his career before migrating to third base. Wendzel’s position arc could look the same.
Jonathan Ornelas, Luisangel Acuna, Keyber Rodriguez and Thomas Saggese are shortstops who, in the long term, might profile just as well on the right side. Justin Foscue, Cody Freeman and Keithron Moss will play multiple positions developmentally but appear to be earmarked for second base. Switch-hitting Jose Acosta, a 20-year-old second baeman/third baseman acquired two weeks ago from the Reds for Scott Heineman, put up pinball numbers in 2019 (.395/.481/.579 between the Dominican Summer League and Rookie-level Arizona League).
And we can’t discount the possibility that the Rangers’ long-term second baseman is Nick Solak. Even before the signing of Dahl, the Rangers made clear their intention to move Solak back onto the dirt to compete with Odor for the 2021 job. Second base was Solak’s primary position in college, and it was in the minors, as well. He’s not going to vie for Gold Gloves, but he’s going to get the chance to prove that he can make the routine plays well enough to earn an everyday role. His versatility from the right side of the plate fills a need.
The closest thing to a certainty is that the five-year plan doesn’t include Odor, who is locked up through 2022 (with Texas holding a club option/buyout for 2023). Even if he does enough to hang onto his job in 2021, it seems unlikely that the Rangers would entertain the idea of a second long-term deal, given how the first one has played out.
THIRD BASE
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In speculating on who Texas could add this winter in left field, in the starting rotation and at third base, I threw out three names per spot — and so far have lucked into hitting on two of the three (Dahl and newly signed righthander Kohei Arihara). So for the one-year plan, I should probably stick with Tommy La Stella or the more affordable Jake Lamb (with a trade for J.D. Davis less likely) as my pick for the one-year plan at third base.
But that’s going to be a temporary assignment. Whether a free agent or Elvis Andrus trots out to third base in Kansas City on April 1, he’s going to hold onto the spot only as long as it takes for Jung to convince the front office that he’s ready to step in.
We can basically stop there. There’s only one entry on the five-year whiteboard that gets scribbled in permanent Sharpie, and it’s not Gallo or Taveras or Huff or Dane Dunning. Josh Jung at third base may not be a sure thing, but no player fits the five-year vision any more clearly.
CENTER FIELD
While Taveras is probably a safer bet than Jung in the one-year context, he may be less of a certainty long-term. The switch-hitting center fielder made the most of his Rangers debut in 2020, putting together a .703 OPS that was 22 points higher than his collective four-year minor-league mark. A spike in extra-base power was largely responsible for the statistical breakout — and also the type of variation that major-league pitchers will look to exploit now that there’s a book on the rookie. (See Solak’s power dip in 2020.)
Jung will have to prove that he can hold down an everyday job just as Taveras does. Both are certainly central to the five-year plan. But as defensively advanced as Taveras is, expecting him to maintain the center field job through 2025 requires some amount of faith that he will hit. The 22-year-old’s minor-league track record probably gives major-league evaluators less confidence than they have in Jung from that standpoint, giving Taveras more to prove as a result.
LEFT FIELD & RIGHT FIELD
Going into the offseason, this is where I thought Heriberto Hernandez might eventually settle in. The catcher experiment has been losing steam, he’s not ideally sized at first base and while his outfield reps have been in right field, his arm is probably best suited for left. Now his defense is Tampa Bay’s conundrum to sort out.
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In Texas, left field now belongs to Dahl, giving the Rangers four capable-or-better center fielders (Dahl, Taveras, Gallo and Eli White) to go to battle with. They’ve rarely had that kind of defensive muscle in the outfield. The club will have the unilateral right to decide whether to keep Dahl around in 2022 and again in 2023, his final two arbitration seasons. Then, assuming there’s no contract extension beforehand, the decision will be whether to commit multiple years to a 30-year-old corner player in 2024 and beyond. A big factor there would be whether Dahl manages in Texas to shed the injury-prone label that led the Rockies to turn him loose this offseason.
As for the other corner, the long-term scenario could go in several different directions. It starts with the Gallo issue — and whether he fits best for Texas in the “Step One” category (the strategic teardown) or instead as a “Step Four” candidate (locking core players up well beyond their arbitration years).
The problem (or the benefit, depending on your viewpoint) of the 27-year-old losing more than 300 points on his OPS this year (.679, after .986 in 2019) is that it moves a long-term extension off the table for now. Texas won’t be up for paying multi-year market value for a Gold Glover with arguably the sport’s best raw power without seeing if 2021 makes Gallo’s 2020-long slump the outlier. And Gallo, for the same reason, has no reason to take a discounted offer.
The Rangers have two years of control remaining on what is by far their most valuable trade chip. The above dilemma extends to the trade analysis as well: Would Texas sell low, accepting the type of marked-down trade offer that an interested team would insist on? Would a trade partner be willing to buy high, giving the Rangers the type of package of young players that Gallo would have commanded coming off his dominant 2019 in spite of this year’s substantial dropoff at the plate?
Assuming MLB gets in a full season in 2021, by the time the trade deadline approaches, teams will have played nearly twice as many regular-season games as they did in 2020. Gallo — and the Rangers, and the league — will have a much deeper sample from which to measure his worth. Regardless of which Gallo we see over the first four months in 2021, he’s more likely to be traded late in July than he is now. And he and the Rangers are also more likely to share an idea by then of what a long-term extension in Texas would look like.
What if Gallo isn’t part of the five-year plan? You’d have to imagine the Rangers have whiteboarded a scenario with him and one without him, but I’m not affording myself the same luxury here. If forced to visualize whether Gallo is a Ranger in 2025, I’m sad — truly sad — to say I don’t think he will be. If he has a huge 2021, Texas might decide the best way to accelerate a return to contention would be to engage in Step One, just as it did with Mark Teixeira in 2007, and trade Gallo for a big return to avoid the risk of not meeting his eventual long-term contract demands. If he has another disappointing summer, on the other hand, the Odor experience will doubtlessly deter the Rangers from a large Step Four commitment of dollars and years — and, again, Gallo probably isn’t even listening to a discounted contract offer.
There’s certainly a middle ground that could position both Gallo and the Rangers to decide a lifetime commitment makes the most sense. But for this exercise, and based on his history, I expect another season of extremes from Gallo — one way or the other — and so I’m going to assume the five-year plan features someone else in right field.
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There aren’t many pure corner outfielders in the Rangers system, and that’s a positive. Much like the shortstop/second base analysis, the outfield corners are ripe for position shifts. If a center fielder hits enough, he’ll fit nicely on a corner (with arm strength more of a consideration in right field than in left). And there’s a long list of infielders —Mookie Betts, Alex Gordon, Whit Merrifield, Ian Desmond — who made successful shifts to the outfield.
Should Taveras lock down the long-term center field spot, minor-league center fielders Bubba Thompson, Steele Walker, Evan Carter, Marcus Smith, Kellen Strahm, Zion Bannister and expected big-dollar J2 sign Yeison Morrobel could find better opportunities on an outfield corner (much as White did in 2020 and Dahl has for 2021). That process will necessarily take further shape in 2021, as there won’t be enough center field reps in the system to accommodate everyone on a daily basis. Whether it happens now or down the road, an infielder like Apostel, Ornelas, Foscue or Jose Rodriguez could migrate to the grass. Time hasn’t run out on outfielders J.P. Martinez, Pedro Gonzalez or Miguel Aparicio, but 2021 is a pivotal year for each.
Before MLB.com switched its projection to Lawlar, it pegged University of Florida outfielder Jud Fabian as the Rangers’ choice with the second pick in this July’s draft. A center fielder for the Gators, Fabian’s ultimate spot in the outfield as a pro is less certain.
Among Texas prospects who slot strictly as corner outfielders, Bayron Lora stands out. After signing for $3.9 million as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2019, the Gallo-sized prototype will finally take his double-plus raw power to the field in 2021. He will probably settle in as a right fielder.
Left field and right field could also be spots where the Rangers venture outside the organization for solutions, whether in free agency or by trade. Texas has more upside in its prospects in the infield, behind the plate and on the mound than it does in the outfield. That’s not to say a player like Carter or Lora couldn’t develop into an elite prospect, but the five-year plan is certainly murkier for the Rangers on the outfield corners than at most positions.
It goes without saying that a lot of this revolves around the Gallo outcome and Dahl’s next three seasons.
DESIGNATED HITTER
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It’s a strange thing to typecast a player with just over two seasons in the league as a long-term designated hitter. The Rangers and Willie Calhoun aren’t ruling out a two-way role, but odds are that the clearest path to consistent at-bats for the 26-year-old will be in a DH role.
Like Gallo, Calhoun followed a breakout 2019 (.848 OPS, 21 home runs in half a season) with a substandard 2020 (.491 OPS). In Calhoun’s case, he never found a rhythm, perhaps affected mentally by the fractured jaw he’d suffered in spring training on a 95-mph Julio Urias fastball to the face. The base hits weren’t falling, and when they did there, wasn’t much damage done; after collecting an extra-base hit every nine times up in 2019, his rate plummeted to one every 27 trips this year. Those aren’t Wille Calhoun numbers, nor are they DH numbers.
After being asked to DH just once in each of his first two seasons with Texas and then only seven times in 2019, he was slotted in the role more times in 2020 (21) than not (eight). That ratio will probably increase in 2021, particularly given what should be a fairly regular outfield unit of Dahl in left, Taveras in center and Gallo in right. If the result of the assignment is that Calhoun rediscovers his attack at the plate by focusing fully on his at-bats without the distraction of making defensive adjustments, he can be a key cog in the Texas offense. With an .855 OPS as a minor leaguer and virtually the same number in Texas the year before he broke his jaw, he doesn’t need to prove he can do damage offensively. He just needs to prove he can do it once again.
Calhoun will be under team control through 2024. Solak (if not the starter at second base) and Huff (eventually) are two candidates over the next couple of years who could give him occasional days off against lefthanders — his left-right splits as a pro were significant even before the Urias pitch — but the Rangers would love it if, going into that fifth year of the five-year plan, they have a tough decision to make on whether they can afford to let him leave as a free agent.
BULLPEN
Fun fact: Ever since the Rangers’ first World Series season, only five pitchers have posted three consecutive seasons as one of the club’s seven busiest relievers — and only one of them (Shawn Tolleson) accomplished it in multiple playoff seasons.
And not one Rangers reliever has done so for four years in a row.
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So to envision a five-year plan for the bullpen would be sort of foolish. History tells us that the odds aren’t great of there being more than one Keone Kela, Alex Claudio, Jesse Chavez or Jose Leclerc (the other four to carry meaningful workloads three straight years with Texas since 2010) in the current pen who will be featured for an abnormally long haul. (Leclerc, for his part, would be starting a new streak after his 2017-18-19 run was halted by a shoulder strain in 2020.) Brett Martin will look to join the three-year club in 2021, but to imagine any Texas reliever here in 2025 would probably require identifying a pitcher who hasn’t even arrived yet.
There’s one exception here, and that’s Jonathan Hernandez. The 24-year-old will be under team control through that 2025 season, and the way the rookie pitched in 2020, he stands to be counted on as heavily as any Texas reliever in 2021. He’s a candidate to assume the closer’s role vacated by this month’s trade of Rafael Montero, particularly if Leclerc isn’t 100 percent coming out of camp — and maybe even if he is.
Closers rarely last long in one place but they’re more likely to do so as part of a proven formula on a winning club. (It’s fair to wonder how much longer than two years Neftali Feliz might have held the role down in Texas if he hadn’t shifted to the rotation.) Hernandez seems poised to close games — if not now, then soon. That also makes him a candidate to be traded; the Rangers, along with many other teams, have demonstrated over the last few years that virtually no reliever is untouchable, especially in a rebuilding cycle.
But as far as the Leclerc/Hernandez equation is concerned, procedure may carry the day if the Rangers don’t find themselves on the doorstep within two years. Leclerc’s salary nearly doubles this year (to $4 million), after which he’s under contract for $4.75 million in 2022 and then subject to club options in 2023 ($6 million, with a $750,000 buyout) and 2024 ($6.25 million, with a $500,000 buyout). Meanwhile, Hernandez will make close to the league minimum the next two years, only entering arbitration in 2023, the first year Texas can cut ties with Leclerc if he’s still with the club. If Leclerc regains the dominant form that he showed in 2018 (which led to the long-term deal), he’s arguably worth the money coming to him — but only if the Rangers are in a position to need that sort of late-inning weaponry past 162 games.
Hernandez is the one established reliever in Arlington with age, affordability and upside, which may make him even more important to keep around than Emmanuel Clase and Peter Fairbanks were last year or Claudio the year before that. Let’s add Demarcus Evans and Alex Speas (if he improves his command) to the watch list, and keep a spot open for someone like Joe Barlow, Cole Uvila, Nick Snyder, Fernery Ozuna or Scott Engler to take a big step forward in 2021.
There’s also a possibility that Taylor Hearn has found a new role as a reliever, and there are sure to be others on the farm who end up making the same transition. Hans Crouse, Ricky Vanasco, Yerry Rodriguez, A.J. Alexy, Ronny Henriquez, Justin Slaten, Mason Englert, Owen White and Tekoah Roby won’t all start games in the big leagues. Some will end up relieving, and maybe impactfully.
But just as there’s no five-year plan for NFL running backs, the same goes for major-league relievers. Even in their best years, the Rangers have proven that.
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ROTATION
It’s been said that expectations are premeditated resentments. But more than with any other position or unit on the team, concocting a five-year plan for starting pitching calls less for expectations than for mere projections. Imagining the state of affairs on the mound even two years out is difficult enough.
An honest five-year plan for the rotation will include three pitchers, give or take, who aren’t even in the organization now. It’s without question that the second overall selection in July’s amateur draft will fit prominently in the five-year plan. The player taken 38th, where Texas will make its next pick (37th if Trevor Bauer unexpectedly returns to the Reds), probably will, too. One or both could be pitchers.
The best starters don’t always arrive with huge signing bonuses and huge expectations. Dialing back to the most successful starting pitchers to come out of Rangers drafts over the last decade: Texas found Kyle Hendricks in the eighth round. Jerad Eickhoff was a 15th-rounder. Derek Holland and Tanner Roark were each taken in Round 25 — which may no longer exist.
“In terms of room for improvement,” new Rangers general manager Chris Young said recently, “look, it always comes back to the value of player development. Specific to the pitching side, I think that’s an area where the Rangers have never been great. I think there’s a lot of room for improvement there.”
This doesn’t signal a shift in Rangers draft philosophy, but it does suggest that developing pitchers more effectively is absolutely a focus. And that starts with the draft as well as international scouting.
It also includes trade strategy. Dunning came from another club. So did Kolby Allard. Hearn, too, and Alexy, Brock Burke, Jason Bahr. More recently, Avery Weems and Jose Corniell. If Gallo is dealt, you can count on at least two players coming back who will factor into the five-year plan. It’s a safe bet at least one will pitch.
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The Texas rotation in five years will not be Dane Dunning, Cole Winn, Hans Crouse, Joe Palumbo and Cody Bradford. Any of them could fit the part, but there will be moves along the way. Trades (possibly sending one or more of them away), free agency, drafts, J2 and Pacific Rim pickups.
Five months ago, Texas took a rotation of Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles into the season. Today: Gibson and Lyles are joined, perhaps, by Dunning, Kyle Cody and the 28-year-old righty Arihara, who inked a two-year, $6.2 million deal with the team on Saturday. More changes will follow year to year as the Rangers’ makeover continues.
I didn’t include Winn in the previous section where I listed minor-league starters who could conceivably find themselves transitioned to the bullpen. Winn is a starter. Durability will be a goal in 2021, as he has yet to carry a full-year workload. But in terms of ceiling and floor, there’s probably no better rotation bet in the system. If we’re going to venture a five-year guess on the Texas starting five, Winn is part of it.
Let’s leave room for one more internal possibility. Maybe Dunning or Cody building off an impressive debut. Perhaps a young lefty among Allard, Palumbo, Hearn, Burke and John King seizes a job. Maybe Crouse or Vanasco or Jake Latz rockets through the system and earns a spot. Or Bradford or Englert or Roby or Dylan MacLean.
Or a pitcher picked up in a Gallo deal, maybe in the Matt Harrison mold: not exactly an internal option but one whose finishing touches take place on the Texas farm.
While the mock drafts are all over the place in projecting the player Texas will choose second overall and, with a whole college and high school season to be played before Draft Day, one of Vanderbilt righties Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter could be an option.
That’s three starters. Prediction: The Rangers sign Darvish after the 2023 season, giving the 37-year-old a two-year deal to fit toward the back of the rotation.
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And for the final spot?
Step Five: engage.
A number of the pitching prospects listed above will inevitably be used as trade pieces. It will cost high-end young talent to make the kind of move the Rangers made to get Cliff Lee and to add Cole Hamels. It’s a cost of doing business that the club has shown over the years it’s willing to pay when timing and opportunity line up.
There are two distinct ways to execute the plan. The first strategy calls for planning ahead: Identify a young pitcher, perhaps a year or two into his big-league career or maybe still just on the verge of his debut, to target as part of a veteran selloff (in this scenario, perhaps Gallo). Three examples: Sixto Sanchez in Miami’s 2019 J.T. Realmuto trade with Philadelphia, plus two White Sox pickups in 2016 — Michael Kopech from Boston as part of the package for Chris Sale, and Lucas Giolito from Washington in a trade for Adam Eaton.
Second strategy: Wait until you feel your team could use one final piece and, rather than moving an established player for minor leaguers, go the other way. Load up an offer of prospects for a star pitcher on a team that believes its window won’t be open while he’s around, such as when Texas traded Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan and others for Lee (2010) and sent Eickhoff, Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams, Jake Thompson and more to the Phillies for Hamels (2015).
It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rangers try both. They wouldn’t get that sort of return for Gallo this winter, but he’s certainly capable of reviving his value this season. As for the second tactic, that would necessarily happen only when the Rangers are positioned to win — that is, at the arrival of the “inflection point” that Levine calls the decision to part with Smoak in order to get Lee.
The aforementioned Sanchez won’t be a free agent until the 2026-27 offseason. If he develops into an ace as many expect, and if the Marlins aren’t very good in 2024 or 2025, they’ll surely look to move him — just as they traded Realmuto two seasons before his free agency, getting Sanchez, Alfaro, a third prospect and international slot money in return. Oakland lefthander Jesus Luzardo, whose team control expires a year before Sanchez’s, is another possible fit here. But let’s go for the pitcher with the extra year.
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July 2024: Texas trades righthanders Vanasco, Tyler Phillips and 2023 Nippon Ham Fighter import Naoya Ishikawa and the infielder Acuna for a year and a half of Sanchez plus (as with the Lee and Hamels deals) a veteran reliever.
Our five-year plan then features a rotation of Sanchez, Winn, Leiter, Dunning and Darvish, caught by the reliable tandem of Jose Trevino and Sam Huff, with a lineup fronted by Trevor Story, Josh Jung and the five-tool stylings of Leody Taveras. Would it be enough to win?
Hey, this is just a five-year plan. Not a prediction.
(Top photo of Josh Jung: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)