Forecasting which Packers will receive regular-season awards

DETROIT, MI - DECEMBER 29: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers warms up prior to the start of the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on December 29, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
By Matt Schneidman
Dec 15, 2020

Aaron Rodgers for most valuable player? Matt LaFleur for coach of the year? What about Pro Bowl picks and All-Pros?

The Packers are 10-3 and sure to rack up a couple of regular-season awards. The NFC North champions and current first-place team in the NFC have their sights set on their first Lombardi Trophy in a decade, but they wouldn’t mind some individual recognition to complement what has been a dominant regular season.

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Here’s a look at which Packers are in contention for major regular-season awards.

Most valuable player

Entering Week 14, Patrick Mahomes was a massive favorite at sportsbooks to win MVP. Now it’s a narrow two-man race. According to Betonline.ag, Mahomes (-200) and Rodgers (+120) are the only two with a feasible chance at the award.

While the Chiefs beat the Dolphins on Sunday, Mahomes threw three interceptions. Rodgers didn’t throw any and tossed three touchdowns in the Packers’ win over the Lions.

Said LaFleur of his quarterback: “Without a doubt in my mind should be the front-runner for the MVP.”

Here is how both players (and State Farm actors) stack up through 13 games.

Coach of the year

LaFleur probably won’t win the award, if only because Rodgers is his quarterback. But he at least deserves to be in the conversation, having helped commandeer the NFL’s highest-scoring offense and begun his head-coaching career with a 23-6 regular-season record.

He’s also won 10 of 11 games in the NFC North and already has an NFC Championship Game appearance under his belt.

How much he’s contributed to that record may not be as much as it would be on a team with a lesser quarterback, but this team isn’t devoid of LaFleur’s imprint.

His main competition for the award figures to be Dolphins coach Brian Flores, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin, Browns coach Kevin Stefanski and Chiefs coach Andy Reid.

Offensive Player of the Year

Davante Adams has been the NFL’s best wide receiver this season.

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He’s caught a touchdown in eight straight games, a franchise record. He’s also the first player in league history with at least six catches and a touchdown catch in eight consecutive games.

Adams, who has played in 11 games, ranks first in the NFL in receiving yards per game (104), tied for first in touchdown catches (14) and first in receptions per game (8.3). Because this award isn’t always given to the MVP, Adams has a chance. Voters seem more willing to include non-quarterbacks.

Adams’ main competition is his own quarterback, Mahomes, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill and Titans running back Derrick Henry.

All-Pro

Rodgers will make first or second team. Only one quarterback makes each team.

Adams will likely make first team since two receivers are included on each team.

Robert Tonyan‘s nine touchdown catches are tied with Kelce for the most among tight ends, but Kelce is a first-team lock. Tonyan could make second team, but Vegas’ Darren Waller might have something to say about that.

David Bakhtiari made second team last season, and he’s played even better in 2020. As the anchor of the best pass-blocking offensive line in football and arguably the best pass-blocking offensive lineman in the league, his second career first-team honor could come soon.

Za’Darius Smith likely won’t make first team because T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett are more household names and are posting equally if not more impressive seasons. Smith ranks tied for third in the NFL with 10.5 sacks and tied for fourth with three forced fumbles. He has a solid chance for a second-team nod.

Jaire Alexander has been one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks. You don’t hear his name much because quarterbacks don’t even bother throwing at him. That, more so than his interception and pass breakup numbers, is the biggest testament to his dominance. Each team has two spots for cornerbacks and three spots for defensive backs, so Alexander is likely to make first or second team.

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Pro Bowl

In addition to all of the above players, all comfortable bets to make the NFC Pro Bowl team, tackle/guard/center Elgton Jenkins deserves to make his first Pro Bowl, if only because voters won’t know where to put him on their All-Pro ballots. He’s the first player since the 1970 merger to start games at tackle, guard and center in the same season. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s allowed only one sack this season after allowing none last season.

Aaron Jones has an outside shot to make it with a strong finish, though the likes of Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Kenyan Drake and even Antonio Gibson may be ahead of him. Jones isn’t having as productive of a year as last season, but his 823 rushing yards (fifth in the NFC) and nine rushing touchdowns (seventh in the NFC) aren’t terrible numbers.

Predictions

  • Rodgers will win MVP.
  • Rodgers, Adams and Bakhtiari will make first-team All-Pro.
  • Smith and Alexander will make second-team All-Pro.
  • Rodgers, Adams, Tonyan, Bakhtiari, Smith and Alexander will make the Pro Bowl.

(Photo: Leon Halip / Getty Images)

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Matt Schneidman

Matt Schneidman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Green Bay Packers. He is a proud alum of The Daily Orange student newspaper at Syracuse University. Follow Matt on Twitter @mattschneidman