With three regular-season games left, and the 9-4 Rams poised to make a run in the postseason, there’s some good news and some bad news.
The good news is, on the Rams’ roster, all of the pieces matter. Sure, the team has locked in core players such as Aaron Donald, Jared Goff, Jalen Ramsey, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp on long-term deals, but around them, many players who don’t have that same contract status have been showing up and playing well. The roster is more complementary in that regard than many expected heading into the 2020 season.
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The bad news is, the Rams can’t keep all of those players.
The front office is preparing for a 2021 that includes a $175 million salary cap, which would be nearly a $25 million decrease from this season because of the revenue hits the NFL is taking amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The Rams already are projected to be approximately $26 million over that, so they will need to restructure some of their bulkier contracts, and they’ll also be faced with difficult decisions about multiple pending free agents.
Most, if not all, of the aforementioned “core contracts,” and especially recent deals with Kupp and Woods, can be pulled open and restructured for more immediate cap help. But doing so pushes more money to the back end of those deals, so as the Rams weigh who to retain, they must decide whether making room for a player is worth the inevitable financial hit.
The markets at nearly every position might look different, too. Free agency could feature an unprecedented flurry of one-year deals, because players might not want to commit long-term to a number that could help a team’s cap situation, if they believe the cap will bounce back up in 2022 and beyond. Other than a few exceptions, the Rams prefer to sign players to multi-year deals, so that might increase the likelihood of them sticking with players who are already in-house (the organizational trust is already built), and vice versa for players who are thinking about testing the market. The franchise tag also could be an option for several teams that want to buy time before the cap goes back to “normal,” but this scenario is unlikely for the Rams, because they’d like to sign many of their key pending free agents at a little under market value and, again, would prefer more flexible multi-year deals.
As teams make difficult cutdown decisions with limited cap space, the market might flood to the point of lowering values, making players more likely to seek longer-term job security with their former teams and thereby increasing the likelihood of team-friendly deals. On the converse, some agents could advise players to treat 2021 as a full market test, to avoid getting stuck somewhere on a low multi-year deal given the chance that the cap goes up massively in 2022 and more money becomes available to them. That would increase the number of single-year deals.
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Meanwhile, as the Rams play out their final three regular-season games and enter the playoffs, player performance in the postseason also will affect which deals are prioritized, either by the Rams or an outside team. Even possible coaching changes could affect the Rams in free agency.
So who might stay, and who might not?
Priority potential returns
John Johnson: The Rams’ starting strong safety, captain and defensive signal-caller is going to be interesting to follow through the playoffs and into the spring. First, there’s a sense that he is connected to defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, who placed Johnson in the key role of the “green dot,” the lone player who communicates the calls from the coordinator to the rest of the defense. Johnson also is in a versatile, multiple role, as the Rams at times use him as a linebacker. If Staley leaves for a head coaching position in 2021, he probably would want to take Johnson with him. It would be a smart move for Johnson, because if his current role wasn’t guaranteed under a new Rams coordinator in 2021, the Rams would have more financial leverage while, conversely, Johnson would have more leverage with Staley’s new team.
The best-case scenario for the Rams is to extend Johnson on a three-year deal (and, yeah, keep Staley around if they can). But they also can’t pay him top-dollar market value for a safety, and instead may want to hover closer to $8 million per year. It’s probable that Johnson will test the safety market this March, and if it’s not viable for him, he could return on an extension. The Rams planned for the possibility of life without Johnson last April by drafting safeties Terrell Burgess and Jordan Fuller, both because they weren’t certain about Johnson’s return from a 2019 shoulder injury and because of his impending free agency. Johnson could be a player worthy of a contract restructure elsewhere, but in recent years the Rams have not invested much money in the safety position, so that also weighs into their decision-making process.
Austin Blythe: The market for Blythe also will be interesting to monitor, because he’s kind of a “tweener” in terms of position value versus player market. The 29-year-old center-turned-guard-turned-center has been great in his first full year starting in the middle of the offensive line for the Rams and, importantly, he’s steady for Goff. It’s hard to imagine the Rams would want to start over at center after finally getting some continuity across the line. Price-friendly, experienced centers are pretty rare when not developed in-house, and the Rams also would not be thrilled at the idea of starting a drafted rookie in front of their franchise quarterback. Blythe could demand a contract similar to lower-end veteran plays, somewhere in the $3 million to $4 million-per-year range, and that would be something the Rams would be interested in, but would prefer a multi-year deal with Blythe, who only agreed to a one-year deal last year.
Leonard Floyd: Floyd, 28, likely would be another player Staley would want to bring with him to a new organization as a veteran presence. Floyd is having a career year, with 7.5 sacks and 16 quarterback hits, and in 2020 is on a prove-it deal worth $10 million. Should he stay, the Rams would want to extend him on a multi-year contract worth a per-year average that is lower than his current number. Working in Floyd’s favor is his production, and also the Rams’ need for stability on the edge, in part because of rookie outside linebacker Terrell Lewis’ continuing knee issues. It’s likely that the team again will look at outside pass-rushers in the draft, but the ability to replace Floyd’s production is not super predictable outside of the first round, where the Rams lack a pick.
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Troy Hill: Hill has done just about everything in the Rams’ secondary, from playing cornerback opposite Ramsey on the outside to floating into the slot in the smaller “Star” package. Hill is playing at his best level in December, including trips to the end zone over the last two weeks, first on a scoop-and-score fumble return and then on a pick-six interception. The Rams would like to bring Hill back, but only on a team-friendly deal.
Jake McQuaide: My sense is that McQuaide, the long snapper and longest-tenured Ram, is going to be a part of this team in one way or another for years to come. That could be via contract extension (and the new CBA gives the Rams some wiggle room in terms of salary allotment because of his veteran status) and maybe even in a coaching role down the line.
Others: Cornerback Darious Williams and tight end Johnny Mundt are restricted free agents, and will be tendered contracts by the Rams. Williams’ contract will reflect his notable climb in the rotation (he leads the team with four interceptions and has developed into a reliable partner opposite Ramsey), and likely will fall between $3 million and $3.5 million per year.
Tough calls
Morgan Fox: Fox has played really well in his range of 28 to 50 percent of defensive snaps per game, and has rushed both from the defensive end and defensive tackle positions. He has recorded four sacks and defended two passes. If the Rams don’t keep Floyd, they could be more likely to try to retain Fox in his depth/rotational role. (The two play different positions, but the team will have to supplement its pass rush from somewhere else, and probably also draft an edge rusher in this scenario).
Malcolm Brown: If the Rams part with Brown, it won’t be an easy decision. The veteran running back is well-liked in the locker room and by the coaching staff, and has been solid in pass protection, on short-yardage plays and in mentoring younger backs Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson.
Unlikely extensions
Josh Reynolds: Reynolds’ long-term future was settled the moment the Rams drafted receiver Van Jefferson last April, and even though Reynolds has played much more than Jefferson this season, that inevitability has not changed.
Gerald Everett: While the possibility remains that Everett can rewrite his future with the Rams in the playoffs, it’s more likely that the team doesn’t extend him this spring. Everett has been a large part of the offense’s work out of 12 personnel, and especially has excelled in run blocking in the later part of this season. But similar to Reynolds, his future seemed to be written when the Rams drafted Brycen Hopkins in the fourth round last April. Everett will undoubtedly have a good market, too, which will further prevent the Rams from being able to pay him considering their cap limitations. Teams called about the possibility of a trade for Everett up until this year’s deadline, but were met with firm refusals because he’s been schematically important to the team’s current plans.
Samson Ebukam: There certainly have been opportunities for Ebukam to show his potential at outside linebacker — he began the year starting opposite Floyd — but he ultimately lost reps to Obo Okoronkwo before Okoronkwo suffered an elbow injury.
Kai Forbath: Forbath is on injured reserve with an ankle sprain, and the Rams didn’t get to see many live reps from him in the two games when he was active. It’s likelier that, rather than a multi-year extension, the Rams bring back Forbath and possibly Matt Gay (and perhaps — gasp — even a rookie) for an offseason competition, because their long-term situation at kicker remains uncertain, even with Gay’s recent success. Gay is a restricted free agent who wouldn’t require a high-dollar contract tender, and whether he’s successful in the playoffs holds the highest implications for his future with the Rams.
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Wait and see
Derek Rivers: The Rams don’t really know how much of a contributor Rivers, an outside linebacker they added a couple of weeks ago off waivers from New England, can be to their defense. He now plays largely in a special-teams role.
Others: There are also a handful of exclusive rights free agents on the Rams’ roster, including linebacker Travin Howard (who’s on injured reserve), defensive back JuJu Hughes, running back/return specialist Raymond Calais and center Coleman Shelton. Outside linebacker Natrez Patrick is a restricted free agent.
(Top photo of John Johnson: Timothy T. Ludwig / Getty Images)