I know Beyoncé is from Houston and all, but I can’t help that this Thanksgiving game in Dallas feels terribly like “déjà vu” — I think I nailed the joke there.
Last time we were all here was almost exactly a month ago, and with a win, either team could’ve taken over first place in the putrid NFC East. The Washington Football Team went on to obliterate the Cowboys at FedEx Field, 25-3. That Oct. 25 victory was the burgundy and gold’s last before it defeated the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.
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Now, roughly a month later, we’re discussing the exact same subject matter. Dallas and Washington face each other on Thanksgiving. The winner of the game takes the lead in the division – at least for four days, depending on what the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants do this weekend. Will this game finally ignite a run for whoever wins it? Both teams are coming off victories, so whoever emerges victorious suddenly will have a winning streak entering December.
Will Washington get to have its cake and eat it, too, on Turkey Day? Well, don’t expect it to be as easy as last time, that’s for sure. The Cowboys are a little more loaded on talent this time, and those 30,000 or so fans who’ll be allowed into AT&T Stadium will provide the most daunting road game atmosphere the WFT will play all year during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Main story
Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy demolished a watermelon ahead of Dallas’ win over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, and Washington coach Ron Rivera is raising him by smashing a pumpkin with a sledgehammer. All jokes aside, McCarthy needs to worry about making sure Washington’s defensive line doesn’t maul his offensive line the way it did in their first meeting.
In that game, the defensive line had pressure on Cowboys quarterbacks on 16 of the 32 times they dropped back to pass, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s a 50 percent pressure rate. Montez Sweat accounted for nearly a third of those pressures, recording five, along with two sacks. The line also forced an interception, produced a strip-sack that turned into a safety and finished with six sacks for 55 yards lost. If the Cowboys haven’t resolved how to slow Sweat and his linemates this time around, then expect the same result.
That’s not my expectation, though, knowing how beat up Dallas’ offensive line was coming into that matchup. This is all predicated on what the Cowboys’ coaching staff decides to do, but I can’t imagine they start anyone outside of All-Pro and Pro Bowl right guard Zack Martin at right tackle. Look, Washington moved Morgan Moses over from right tackle to left because it felt he gave them its best chance to keep the quarterback upright, with David Sharpe sliding in at right tackle, and it’s no different in Dallas.
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Martin is wildly talented, and even though Brandon Knight just came off injured reserve, I can’t see the Cowboys going any other direction than Martin starting again at tackle because of how Sweat abused the right side of the line and how well Martin performed there Sunday against the Vikings. In 35 pass-blocking situations, he allowed no pressures. Zero, zip, zilch. The line as a whole allowed only four pressures all game, a season-low, which explains why quarterback Andy Dalton was able to throw for three touchdowns and more than 200 yards. It also explains why running back Ezekiel Elliott was able to dash off for his first 100-yard rushing performance (103 yards) since he ran over Washington for 122 yards in last season’s finale.
On the flip side, Dallas’ run defense was in full collapse when it came to Washington. It had allowed an average of 219 rushing yards in their previous three games, including a seemingly impossible 307 to Cleveland, and the burgundy and gold took full advantage, stampeding the Dallas defense for 208 more yards on the ground.
Antonio Gibson registered his first, and to this point only, 100-yard game (128) on the ground a month ago, and if he’s able to find the same success, then it’ll likely be a long afternoon for the Cowboys. Especially since that success on the ground would open up opportunities for quarterback Alex Smith to take shots downfield, something Washington has really begun to hit its stride on this season.
“I do think coming to the line, being a veteran guy with some savviness and kind of looking things over and being able to say: ‘OK, this is my opportunity. I’ve got the right matchup over here,’” Rivera said. “I know last week he threw one to Isaiah (Wright.) Again, it really is about getting to the line of scrimmage and looking at the matchup, ‘Is that what I’m looking for? Is that what I’m looking at?’ And then just cutting it loose. That’s something that you, as a veteran quarterback, you’re always looking for.”
Since the first game with Washington, the Cowboys’ run defense hasn’t been exactly stifling, but it’s been better. It held the undefeated Steelers, who average just under 120 rushing yards a game, to just 46. It did allow Dalvin Cook, the league’s rushing leader going into last week, 115 rushing yards and a touchdown.
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Behind enemy lines
The Athletic’s Jon Machota on the most intriguing aspect of the Cowboys’ situation entering Week 12:
The Cowboys should be a motivated group coming off their biggest win of the year Sunday in Minnesota. They were embarrassed in Washington last month. A big story coming out of that game was how none of Dallas’ players stood up for Dalton after Jon Bostic knocked him out with a concussion. It should be interesting to see the Cowboys’ reaction if Dalton takes any type of questionable hit on Thursday. The defense has improved each week since that last Washington game. The offensive line had its best game of the season on Sunday, giving Dalton plenty of time to find open receivers, and allowing its backs to rush for a season-high 180 yards. Moving Martin to right tackle worked well. He should stay there for the rest of the season. Surprisingly, this matchup between 3-7 teams should be a good one with the division still up for grabs. I expect the Cowboys to play well and win a close one, 20-17.
What to watch
Much of the Cowboys’ struggles this season can be tied to the injuries ravaging their ranks. When they faced Washington at FedEx, the offensive line was one of the most decimated groups.
Five weeks later, Dallas has made some adjustments and is also a little healthier. Martin shifted to right tackle, Connor McGovern filled in at right guard, and starting center Joe Looney will play this time to form a more cohesive unit, which will try to do a better job keeping Dalton upright this time around. With Knight off of injured reserve, I am curious to see if Martin sticks outside at tackle or the staff decides to move him back to guard, because that has large ramifications on how I think the defensive line will do. It’ll certainly need it after mustering all of three points and 142 total offensive yards on Oct. 25.
“A lot of times guys, they move out and by moving a guy out to one spot and plugging in someone else at that other spot, you might be putting a better football player on the field,” Rivera said. “That’s potentially what might have happened with Dallas. By moving things around, they might have put a better football player on the field. So, that might be what has happened with the offensive line.”
Lineup
Similar to its NFC East rivals, Washington has a few starters it may be getting back on this short week. Wide receiver Dontrelle Inman (hamstring) was a full participant in Tuesday’s practice for the first time in recent weeks. Starting left tackle Cornelius Lucas (ankle) and starting free safety Deshazor Everett (ankle) were both limited after not playing against the Bengals, and Ryan Anderson (knee) also was limited.
The player to be concerned about is receiver Terry McLaurin (ankle), who didn’t participate in Monday’s practice and was limited on Tuesday. Gibson (ankle), who leads the team in rushing touchdowns, was a full participant on Tuesday after not going through Monday’s practice. Dallas doesn’t have any injuries of note. All six players on their injury report either practiced fully or on a limited basis, so far.
What they said
Rivera addressing the news that former Chicago Bears teammate and Cowboys strength and conditioning coach Markus Paul had to be rushed to the emergency room for an apparent heart attack on Tuesday, as well as his thoughts on Dallas’ success on Thanksgiving:
“I just wanted to let everybody know that thoughts and prayers are out for Markus Paul and his family. … Markus and I were teammates back in the day with the Chicago Bears. … Markus was a very bright, smart football player. He had good size, good range, good athleticism. He was a physical football player. Just a good teammate and a good person. It was a little bit of a shocker to hear that.”
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The Cowboys’ all-time record on Thanksgiving is 30-21-1 and this is the 10th time they’ve welcomed Washington to the Lone Star State on the holiday. Dallas isn’t impossible to beat on this day, as it was embarrassed by the Buffalo Bills, 26-15, last season, but the Cowboys have beaten Washington in eight of their nine Thanksgiving Day games.
“Think about it, you’re home,” Rivera said. “You’re playing relatively early. You still know that when you’re done, you still have a chance to go home and have Thanksgiving dinner. Whereas typically, the opponent has to get home and get on an airplane at 1 o’clock in the morning and they’re wondering if they’ll have any turkey leftover. That’s something that I think does play into it, I really do. At the end of the day, both teams still have to play on Thanksgiving. Both teams still have to line up against one another. At the end of the day, the better team is going to win.”
Prediction
Washington, 26-23: This is Washington’s lone “primetime” game this season, and football fans get to watch the fight for the division lead between two 3-7 teams. I expect the burgundy and gold to be competitive in this game. And unlike the last time these teams faced each other, when the Cowboys were coming in deflated and then lost their starting quarterback, Dallas enters this coming off a hard-fought win, and I’m looking forward to a spirited contest. This is the final arguably “winnable” game Washington plays before a three-game stretch against the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers and NFC-West leading Seattle Seahawks. How well the WFT shows up Thursday will provide a window into how close or how far the team will look in the weeks beyond this game. This won’t be the blowout that it was in Week 7, but I do expect Washington’s defensive front to make some plays, frustrate Dalton and create some short-yardage scoring opportunities for the offense.
(Photo of Andy Dalton and Montez Sweat: Randy Litzinger / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)