AFC North Whiparound: Joe Burrow’s injury and Steelers-Ravens predictions

EDITOR’S NOTE: The Ravens at Steelers game scheduled Thursday night has been rescheduled for Sunday.

Each week during the season, our AFC North beat writers discuss the state of the division and their respective teams and provide a look at some of the key storylines impacting the division. We’re on to Week 12 …

Just a brutal turn of events for the Bengals with the Joe Burrow injury. Losing a starting quarterback is almost always going to be a devastating, worst-case scenario, but which player at another position could the team you cover least afford to lose for an extended period of time?

Mark Kaboly (PIT): First of all, it sucks that Burrow got injured. Here’s hoping for a quick and full recovery. I believe a form of this question was asked earlier in the season and I went with Devin Bush. Well, it hasn’t been as disastrous as I thought it might be, but there are still issues at inside linebacker. That’s neither here nor there. I want to say Minkah Fitzpatrick, and I wouldn’t be wrong, but the four-year starter behind him, Sean Davis, makes that a little easier to swallow. I guess it has to be T.J. Watt, who has been absolutely dominant in every aspect imaginable. He has nine sacks, but his pressures and quarterback hits are off the charts, plus he’s been asked to play in a little different role from time-to-time either in coverage or a roving inside linebacker.

Zac Jackson (CLE): First, the air up here in the second spot is a little different. Let me gather myself. The answer in Cleveland is happening in real-time. The Browns will play this week without their best two defensive players, Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, and Ward will almost certainly miss at least one more game after this week due to a calf strain. Garrett is probably the answer based on the way he’s changed games and changed opposing blocking schemes, but Ward has been so good in the secondary that he’s helped hide the team’s lack of depth across the group. If opposing quarterbacks have time to throw, they’ll certainly have chances to light up the Browns.

Jeff Zrebiec (BAL): The Ravens probably lost that guy already when All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley went down with a season-ending ankle injury earlier this month. Orlando Brown Jr. moved from right to left tackle and he’s played well, but the Ravens now have a void at right tackle. As for guys still on the 53-man roster, cornerback Marlon Humphrey would probably be the hardest to replace. He’s strong in coverage, can match up inside or outside and creates turnovers. He’s the Ravens’ best defensive player and they could ill afford to lose him.

Jay Morrison (CIN): At this point, does it really even matter? What are we talking about, going 0-6 down the stretch instead of 1-5, maybe 2-4? I think Jessie Bates is their best player at the moment, but the defense as a whole isn’t good anyhow so the drop off wouldn’t be that steep. I’d have to say a Tyler Boyd absence would have the greatest impact. He’s been the best receiver on the team the last three years and he’s a guy Brandon Allen is going to have to lean on heavily. Boyd is fifth in the league in catches resulting in first downs. And for an offense that is going to struggle to sustain drives, they have to have that guy.

Let’s do a little fantasy gambling. With the line set at Bengals +0.5, which will be higher over the final six weeks of the season, Bengals wins or Steelers losses?

Kaboly: The Steelers aren’t going 16-0. I can assure you that. But they aren’t going to lose any more than two of their final six games. That makes this a pretty easy bet. There’s no way the Bengals are going to win two games. If you told me Joe Mixon was healthy and ready to go, then I would have to give it a little more thought. But with Brandon Allen and Gio Bernard, I don’t like their chances, even with somewhat winnable games against the Giants, Texans and Cowboys. I would say the Bengals would’ve had a good chance of winning all three with Burrow and Mixon. Now, I’d give them one.

Jackson: I don’t think the Steelers will run the table, but this is still an easy one to me. I can’t see the Bengals winning again without their most important player — and I also can’t see them wanting to win again so they can position themselves to pick the best available offensive tackle in April. The Bengals still have the same defense and same current offensive line without Burrow, and I think it would be a minor miracle if they won another game.

Zrebiec: Our weekly gambling question. I’ll say Bengals’ wins. I like Cincinnati’s chances better of scratching out a few victories against the likes of the Giants, Cowboys and Texans than I do of the Steelers’ losing more than one or two games the rest of the way against the likes of the Ravens, Bills and Browns. Pittsburgh will probably need to keep winning too to stay ahead of the Chiefs for the top seed, so I can’t see the Steelers taking their foot off the gas.

Morrison: Aw, come on. You know I’m not good with math. I think the Bengals beat either the Giants this week or the Cowboys in Week 14, and that’s probably it. Houston seems winnable, but until the Bengals actually win a road game (0-18-1 in their last 19), I’m not counting on one. So the question becomes, will the Steelers go undefeated? No way. I think the Bills and Colts could both be stumbling blocks. I’m taking the Bengals in this one, which is never a solid plan. But I’m doing it anyway. What will be really, really interesting — and something I kind of hope comes to fruition — is what if the Steelers are 15-0 with the No. 1 seed locked up going into Cleveland in Week 17? Do they play their starters the full game to go for 16-0? Sounds like a question for a future Whiparound.

Plain, simple and straight to the point: Will the Ravens make the playoffs? Explain why or why not.

Kaboly: Absolutely. And I say that just because of their remaining schedule. You aren’t going to find many juggernauts after Thanksgiving night, that’s for sure. The Ravens still have a good defense and a good quarterback. Lamar Jackson is going to have to work some things out and get better play out of his receivers to have a real chance. I can see that Dec. 14 meeting between the Ravens and Browns becoming an elimination game for whoever loses.

Jackson: I have to pick YES based on remaining schedule. Clearly, the Ravens are searching for offensive answers and available players, and things clearly aren’t trending in a positive direction. But with the Cowboys, Jaguars, Giants and Bengals still on the schedule, the Monday night game in Cleveland might be the Ravens’ win-and-in game. As long as their front-line guys are available, I’d have to pick the Ravens to win in that spot.

Zrebiec: I said in this space last week that I felt the Ravens were in a bit of trouble and since then, they blew another double-digit lead, played another shaky game offensively and added three players to the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Now, they have to go on a short week and with a banged-up roster to Pittsburgh. So yeah, things aren’t going so well for John Harbaugh’s team. Here’s the thing, though: Even if they lose Thursday night to go to 6-5, the Ravens’ final five games are against the Cowboys, Browns, Giants, Jaguars and Bengals. That Browns game will be tough, but Baltimore will be heavy favorites in the other games. I’ll say the Ravens find a way to get in, but there will be quite a few anxious moments along the way.

Morrison: They still should be solid favorites in four of their final six games, so as long as they don’t spit the bit that gets them to 10 wins, which should get them in. Plus they’re 10-2 in their last 12 trips to Cleveland. And I’m not counting them out Thursday night either. I think they have a better chance of running the table than they do of missing the playoffs. I wouldn’t put money on either of those happening, but I’d lay down $100 on them making the playoffs.

Cliché Thanksgiving question here with a twist. It’s too easy to ask what the team you cover should be most thankful for. So give us a reason to be thankful that maybe you or the team or the fan base didn’t see coming back in August.

Kaboly: Three words: Ben being Ben. Although there was great optimism that the 38-year-old quarterback coming off major elbow surgery could return to be as good as he once was, there always was a question mark surrounding him. That’s even after he looked solid in the truncated preseason. But wow, Roethlisberger has exceeded everybody’s expectations, and he’s the main reason why the Steelers are 10-0 and in the driver’s seat to reclaim the AFC North championship. He’s been great with his decision-making, his calls at the line and the design of his own plays. But he’s brought this singularly focused attitude of taking it one game at a time with him, which has trickled down to the rest of the team. He’s upped his play, upped his intensity and upped his leadership, and everybody associated with the organization should be thankful for that.

Jackson: Wyatt Teller. The Browns had 10 offensive starters and a couple of role players set as they started working through the base of Kevin Stefanski’s offense a few months back. Teller has not only locked up the one unsettled position, but he’s pushed a talented offensive line to new heights. The Browns have built an identity as a powerful, run-first team with the league’s best running back duo getting the headlines, but the Browns wouldn’t be 7-3 and in the thick of the playoff race without the offensive line playing the way it has. It’s been especially good the last two games with Teller back from a calf injury.

Zrebiec: There’s been a lot of talk since the offseason about the Ravens’ ability to keep so many core players who are nearing free agency. The expected salary cap decline made the task even more daunting. General manager Eric DeCosta still has plenty of work to do, but in the past couple of months, he’s made sure two of the team’s top players are staying put for the foreseeable future. The Ravens extended both Stanley and Humphrey, getting the deals done early enough where they can now turn their attention to pending free agents Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue and 2022 free agents Brown and Mark Andrews. They’ll have a decision to make on Jackson soon, too. However, DeCosta is off to a good start.

Morrison: That Brandon Allen will quarterback the team in Burrow’s absence instead of Ryan Finley. There was a near revolt last year after the team benched Andy Dalton to see what it had in Finley, and the Bengals lost all three games during the experiment, two of which they would have won with Dalton at the helm. Of course, had that happened, Burrow would be throwing passes for the Washington Football Team right now. The Bengals signed Allen in early August as a COVID contingency, never thinking the need would arise to play him. But here they are. Allen will at least give the Bengals a fighting chance to avoid going 2-13-1.

Some of the luster is off the Steelers-Ravens matchup Thanksgiving night, but it’s still the best game of the day. Can a salty Ravens squad pull the upset and end the Steelers’ undefeated run?

Kaboly: Absolutely. It might sound cliché, but throw the records out when these two teams meet. I remember when the Steelers needed a win in Baltimore to get into the playoffs and Ryan Mallet screwed them. I remember when the Steelers gave the Ravens all they could handle in a 2003 finale when it meant nothing to the Steelers and everything to the Ravens. You can go cherry-pick more than a handful of instances on both sides of the rivalry that illustrate the point that it doesn’t matter if Charlie Batch or Roethlisberger is the quarterback or J.K. Dobbins or Gus Edwards is starting at running back. With that in mind, and I know this wasn’t asked specifically, the Steelers will win this game. But it will be within one score at 24-16.

Jackson: I can’t wait to pump myself full of salt and carbohydrates and watch this game. I think the Ravens keep it close with a circle-the-wagons type of effort, but I don’t think they’ll ultimately have the manpower to pull it off. I look for a close, competitive game won in the fourth quarter by the Steelers’ passing game. Steelers 24, Ravens 21.

Zrebiec: In this matchup, nothing surprises me. We’ve watched Batch beat the Ravens and Mallett and Robert Griffin III beat the Steelers. The Ravens traditionally play well in Pittsburgh, too. I just don’t see this Ravens team pulling it off. The Ravens are too weakened on the offensive line, too banged up on the defensive line and too fragile right now as a team. These games are always decided by one score, but I could see the Steelers winning pretty comfortably Thursday night.

Morrison: Yeah, I think they can, and I’m teetering toward convincing myself they will. The Steelers are favored by five points. That’s the most they’ve ever been favored against at home against the Ravens. Oddly enough they’ve been favored by five or more three times on the road, and the Ravens covered all three times and won two of them outright. When it comes to short week, rivalry games like this, the team with the most to lose rarely does. The Steelers, like most of us, will be fat and happy Thursday. The Ravens will be desperate. I’ve talked myself into it. Give me the Ravens on a Justin Tucker field goal at the gun.

(Photo of Stephon Tuitt and Gus Edwards: Mark Goldman / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)