In normal times, Notre Dame would spend Thanksgiving weekend in California, hoping it had done enough to earn an invitation to the College Football Playoff, or at least a New Year’s Six bowl game. It would play historic rival USC, continuing a series that started with Knute Rockne and has been staged every season since 1945. In these times, Notre Dame will travel to North Carolina with a chance to all but wrap up a place in the ACC championship game during an afternoon game on Black Friday.
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Even in a college football season where we should already be used to change, this one bucks Notre Dame’s tradition in a unique way. But now that this year’s scheduling rework created a top 25 game to help us get through the Thanksgiving weekend, who are we to complain?
Beat writers Pete Sampson (Notre Dame) and Brendan Marks (North Carolina) have plenty to say about all that in what should be the second-biggest game of this season for the Irish and the biggest for the Tar Heels.
Pete Sampson: Let’s start at quarterback. Sam Howell might be the best one Notre Dame faces all year, at least until a potential rematch with Clemson in the ACC championship game. He’s not built like Trevor Lawrence or D.J. Uiagalelei, so what makes him so good?
Brendan Marks: Sam Howell very much is not built like Lawrence or Uiagalelei … but that’s totally fine! Instead of an absurd set of physical tools, Howell’s mental game is his strong suit. He obviously has the arm to make every throw he needs to and the accuracy to put the ball where only his receivers can get it, but that isn’t all. Howell’s preparation is off the charts; he’s already studying when coaches arrive at the office. He’ll even ask coaches, especially in the offseason, to pull specific tape of NFL quarterbacks he admires. (At 6-foot-1 and 225 pounds, Howell often draws comparisons to Drew Brees for his stature and playing style.)
So he’s got this unreal prep, outstanding accuracy and arm talent, and then when he’s in the game, he doesn’t get rattled. Howell’s demeanor never fluctuates from complete calm, whether he tosses five touchdowns or five picks. Because of that steady demeanor, he’s very comfortable with his internal clock in the pocket. If anything, sometimes he holds the ball too long trying to make a hero play.
Lastly, it doesn’t hurt to have the skill-position talent he does. Both of UNC’s running backs, Michael Carter and Javonte Williams, are future NFL players, and Williams has been one of the most dominant backs in all of college football this season. His two starting outside receivers, Dazz Newsome and Dyami Brown, are in the same boat. UNC rolls receivers off a conveyor belt; Howell just has to put all the pieces together.
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But clearly, Howell has to have one hell of a game for UNC to have a chance in this one. How do you anticipate the Fighting Irish trying to stop him and the Tar Heels’ offense as a whole? Mack Brown had some high praise for Notre Dame’s defense this week.
Sampson: I’m fascinated to see how defensive coordinator Clark Lea plays this one because I still believe that Notre Dame’s defense has some vulnerabilities that don’t show up just flipping through box scores.
The Irish don’t have great depth in the secondary, which means that even when they go to nickel and dime sets, the quality of the personnel drops off. Safety D.J. Brown is the nickel back, and safety Houston Griffith comes in when the Irish employ a dime look, which is rare. Both have yet to really make much of an impact this season, and if you’re Howell, you’re keeping an eye out for when No. 12 (Brown) and No. 3 (Griffith) get on the field.
I wonder if North Carolina would consider tinkering with personnel sets, maybe going with more three-wide or even four-wide sets to stress Notre Dame’s defense. Because if you just sit back and play Notre Dame in its base 4-3 set, stressing the Irish is a really, really tough ask. I’d think Notre Dame would prefer to deal with North Carolina’s tempo with familiar personnel looks, letting safety Kyle Hamilton and linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah dictate what the Tar Heels can and cannot do. Having watched North Carolina all year, does offensive coordinator Phil Longo have that move available? The more you can stretch this defense with vertical shots, the better off you’re going to be as an offense.
Marks: Longo definitely has that move available, and honestly, that’s when UNC’s offense is at its best. Also, it’s fitting you mention Hamilton and Owusu-Koramoah — anyone who has watched Notre Dame this year already knows it, but Longo highlighted those two specifically as “elite tacklers” with NFL futures. (Amazing piece on Owusu-Koramoah, by the way. UNC fans, if you haven’t read it yet, now’s your chance.)
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Back to this UNC offense, and specifically how Longo can play around with personnel. Last year, the game plan was basically to go deep whenever possible, whether to Newsome or Brown or senior Beau Corrales. But especially earlier this season, defenses have dropped their safeties way deep to prevent that from happening. So Longo has had to roll with Carter and Williams early, establish the run, and then pop play action later in the game. Now, Corrales has missed the last few games with a lower body injury, but he’s back practicing and will be a game-time decision on Friday. If he plays, that’s a huge boost for UNC. His last game was against Florida State, when he caught four balls for 141 yards and a touchdown.
Even if Corrales doesn’t play, UNC has the receiver depth to roll out three- and four-wide sets, which sounds like it might force Notre Dame into something other than its base package. For the Tar Heels, that’s a win. I get that the passing game is going to be the Tar Heels’ primary focus against the Irish, but we have to at least discuss Notre Dame’s run defense. UNC defensive coordinator Jay Bateman really lauded the way the Irish shut down Clemson star Travis Etienne. Is it possible to run on this group, or what is it about Hamilton and Owusu-Koramoah that makes that so difficult?
Sampson: Notre Dame’s straight-up run defense has been solid but not spectacular, to the point that you sort of wonder whether they’re going to get found out eventually. The defensive line has good depth, but there’s no standout player. The linebacker group beyond Owusu-Koramaoh is more fundamentally sound than athletically elite. But the results are the results. Running on Notre Dame’s base defense, Clemson finished with 29 carries for 47 yards (that total takes out sacks but includes quarterback scrambles). It was by far Notre Dame’s best performance of the season in that area, a direct result of putting an extra defender around the line of scrimmage and letting D.J. Uiagalelei go off. Of course, he did, with an opponent record 439 yards passing.
It’s hard for me to see Notre Dame going with such an imbalanced game plan against North Carolina. Everybody knows what Howell is. Uiagalelei was an unknown back then. This is where Notre Dame needs its defensive line to play really well, not necessarily in pass rush, but in stopping the run. If you can take the RPO and remove the R — sort of like taking out the fullback in Navy’s triple option — then you have a chance. But doing that means the defensive line has to win at the line of scrimmage. This will sound weird, but shutting down (or at least slowing down) North Carolina’s offense starts before Howell gets to decide where the ball goes.
I wonder if this is where North Carolina’s lack of quality competition to date hurts them. The Tar Heels haven’t played a defense that’s better than mediocre in yards per play allowed. Now they get the statistical equivalent of Clemson.
Marks: You’re totally right, and that definitely adds another element to any of these discussions. UNC’s offense has been generally good, but it stalls at times against mediocre or worse defenses. The Florida State loss looks more and more indefensible as time goes on, and the Virginia loss isn’t pretty, either.
That inconsistency against not-so-great opponents makes me nervous about how UNC will respond when, not if, it runs into Notre Dame’s proverbial brick wall. It’s going to happen, and I’m just not sure this team is stout enough across the board, or mature enough in terms of understanding game flow, to handle falling behind early. Howell has a knack for making fourth-quarter magic happen, but not against that front.
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We’ve gone far too deep into this chat without mentioning Notre Dame’s offense, though, and a quarterback who has looked pretty impressive in his own right. North Carolina has struggled dramatically with quarterbacks who can run — the lowlights include allowing Florida State’s Jordan Travis to rush for 107 yards and two scores, along with Virginia Tech’s two quarterbacks combining for 80 yards and a score on the ground. What is Ian Book doing differently this season, especially of late, that has been so effective? Overall, I’m intrigued to hear where you’d slot him in the greater ACC* landscape.
*Permanent conference affiliation not required.
Sampson: Probably a little higher than Pro Football Focus, which had Book 10th in the ACC a couple weeks ago. All Book has been for Notre Dame is 28-3 as a starter. With two more wins, he’ll tie the all-time wins mark for a starting quarterback in this program, which has had a few guys at the position over the years.
Book’s past couple of games have blown me away, to be honest. He had been having a fine final season, but he hadn’t done anything that made you see him in a new light. And then the Clemson game happens: He leads a game-tying drive in the final minute, then leads two touchdown drives in overtime. Suddenly, you can’t find enough good things to say about him, and everybody stops using “game manager” when talking about his skill set. Of course, he follows it up by absolutely shredding Boston College and looking like he’s quarterbacking in the Matrix.
So, what’s working? He’s always been mobile, but more than ever he is scrambling behind the line of scrimmage to throw rather than bailing on the pocket to run. And after eight games, this inexperienced group of receivers understands how to play with a mobile quarterback. The Irish don’t have anyone like Chase Claypool; it’s a group of career reserves and a grad transfer from Northwestern. But Book has helped make the pass game suddenly seem better than the sum of its parts.
I’m not going to put Book over Lawrence, Uiagalelei, Howell or D’Eriq King. But check back after the ACC championship game. Maybe we’ll be having a different conversation. To be the quarterback who delivered Notre Dame’s first (and only!) conference championship, that’s hero stuff.
Bottom line, if you’re not sound defensively, Book and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees can play the game they want to play — slow it down, speed it up, attack from multiple points. Which gets us to the weakest unit on the field, North Carolina’s defense. What’s that all about?
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Marks: Wait, 10th in the ACC? That’s just rude. And, clearly, wrong.
I, for one, am excited to see Book and Howell duel back and forth. I’m sure Book is equally excited to face this North Carolina defense. You’re being generous by only calling it the weakest unit on the field. It’s just not great. The Tar Heels have given up more than 40 points three times this season, including their most recent win, a Big 12-esque 59-53 victory over plucky Wake Forest. They’re 64th nationally in total defense, allowing 413.6 yards per game and about 5.7 per play. Definitely not ideal.
As for why, it’s sort of a longer story. First, the secondary has been in flux all season, due to three preseason opt-outs and veteran safety Myles Wolfolk being declared academically ineligible after the season opener. Storm Duck, UNC’s top cornerback — and a member of the All-ACC Name Team — has been out for a few weeks with a lower body injury. Other guys, including nickel Ja’Qurious Conley and defensive back Kyler McMichael, have missed time, too. It isn’t so much that the Tar Heels have bad defenders, but they haven’t had any real consistency all season. Not to mention, this is an incredibly young group that is still learning on the fly.
The youth also applies to the defensive line, which has good talent in Ray Vohasek and Tomari Fox but still just needs some more game reps. And then there’s the guy in the center of everything, linebacker Chazz Surratt. Everyone knows Surratt’s story as a quarterback-turned-linebacker, and his freaky athleticism allows him to make some tremendous plays, but he’s still learning the ins and outs of the position. There have been times this season that he struggles with angles and over-pursuit, as well as getting off his initial blockers to make a tackle.
I think it’s definitely a group Book can have success against. I’ll add this caveat, though: Duck is back practicing this week, and if he plays, it’s no bold prediction to say he’ll make a major impact. I feel like we’ve hit most of the big points with these two teams, but is there anything else UNC fans should know about Notre Dame? And then I’ll put you in the hot seat first by asking for your prediction.
Sampson: Well, Notre Dame lost two starters on the offensive line this week, which feels like both a massive blow and a setback the Irish might be able to manage. Center Jarrett Patterson was lost for the season (broken foot) coming out of Boston College, then right guard Tommy Kraemer had an emergency appendectomy last weekend and will miss a few weeks. On the surface, these are big losses for one of college football’s best offensive lines. But the replacements are senior Josh Lugg at right guard, a former four-star prospect with starting experience, and sophomore Zeke Correll at center, another former four-star prospect. Privately, people around Notre Dame aren’t stressed about this personnel swap. Should they be? I want to see for myself on Friday. But if you’re a “stars matter” person, Notre Dame should be able to replace offensive linemen like Clemson replaces quarterbacks.
To me, if Notre Dame wins it’s going to be about the lines more than the quarterbacks. Ian Book and Sam Howell are great, don’t get me wrong. But the biggest Irish advantage is at the line of scrimmage on both sides. If that shows on Friday, Notre Dame should control the pace of play and ultimately squeeze the life out of North Carolina in the fourth quarter. As long as the Tar Heels don’t go off early, I like the maturity of this Irish team to win out, something in the 37-27 range.
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What do you think?
Marks: Never a bad thing when you can replace starting offensive linemen with seniors and former four-star recruits. UNC … isn’t quite there yet.
I think that assessment is spot-on, though. If Notre Dame wins, it’ll be primarily because the O-line holds up against some of Bateman’s creative blitzes and because the defensive front gets pressure on Howell. If UNC wins, it’s because Howell goes nuclear (again) and the defense forces timely stops like it did in the second half against Wake Forest.
I am still excited to see what each passer can do, though. I’ll bet Howell’s stat line is more impressive than Book’s, but the latter comes out of this one with the only thing that matters. Give me Notre Dame, 41-38.
Either way, this is gonna be one hell of a game.
(Photo: Bob Donnan / USA Today)