Predicting Michigan’s football season, game-by-game

The mid-morning air smelled the way it was supposed to on days like these. Frigid.

With equal notes of booze, grill smoke and terror.

The date was Nov. 26, 2016. The place: Ohio Stadium. The amount of nervous energy in and around the building was at a level felt only on days when everything changes. Michigan and Ohio State were going to smash helmets for four hours with more on the line than anyone was willing or able to comprehend in that moment. On the surface, it felt like the way it used to feel. In reality, it wasn’t. It wasn’t an equal-footing scenario. Ohio State needed a win to keep a vise grip on its most hated rival and maintain its unquestioned spot as the king of Midwestern college football. Michigan needed a win to advance to the next level. To keep itself within striking distance of the powerhouse that has made life rather miserable for about 20 years. The winner would breathe relief. The loser would be forced into “what now” mode.

By now, you know who took each role.

Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan tenure is about to enter Year 6. But really, the whole thing has been broken down into two parts: Everything that happened before J.T. Barrett’s fourth-down carry in that second overtime that led to OSU’s 30-27 win, and everything that has happened since. Harbaugh’s first 24 games at Michigan came with a 20-4 record and the feeling of nothing but positive momentum toward ending a decade of frustration before a full return to national relevancy. Since then? Harbaugh’s 27-14. The momentum Michigan had before that day in Columbus is gone. The Wolverines lost a load of veteran talent and were unable to make it work in 2017. The 2018 campaign felt different, but the end result was the same: a 10-game win streak that ended in a humiliating 62-39 loss to the Buckeyes that painted a picture of two programs living in different worlds. Last season didn’t come with any fool’s gold. It was a disappointing struggle early, followed by signs of growth that were ultimately stamped with familiar frustration.

As Michigan prepares to enter what should be a unique and unprecedented condensed season, the question of what it is and where it’s going continues to hover above Harbaugh’s head. Michigan’s not bad enough for reasonable minds to suggest a full-on reset, especially as it enters a year that was absent an offseason and filled with pandemic-related uncertainty. At the same time, unless you’re collecting a paycheck from Michigan or blindly wishing, it’s impossible to suggest the program looks close to the national dance floor most expected it to live on when Harbaugh took the job — where U-M was on that late November day in 2016.

Michigan’s stuck. Trying to work its way out of a frustrating spot. Not the same spot it was in when Brady Hoke was fired at the end of 2014. But stuck all the same. Two of the last three seasons have featured regressions. No one can afford to make it three of four. Not necessarily in the sense that jobs are on the line. But in the sense that Michigan’s football program is on the verge of being the worst kind of bland. Not great, not bad — just there.

Josh Gattis enters his second year as offensive coordinator. (Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

People have asked me plenty over the past few weeks what would qualify as a good season for Michigan. My answer is simple.

Regain the type of mental toughness the Wolverines showed during those progress-filled 2015 and 2016 campaigns. They were physical every week, regardless of the talent differential. They were uncomfortable to play against, even on days when they didn’t have their fastball. The most talented players played up to their ability level and the underneath guys played above their heads — nearly every week, with the rarest of exceptions. That was Jim Harbaugh football when he arrived: maximizing the best stuff and dragging anything lagging up to a winning level. His greatest attribute as a coach, to date, has been his ability to enter uneasy situations and force — mostly through grinding will — consistent, positive change. To force players to stretch beyond what they might be capable of on paper. At some point along the way, the stretching has turned into shrinking.

Start there. Reverse that trend. And let’s talk about what happens when this year is (finally) over.

Before we get there, though, let’s try to pick a record. I’m using confidence levels (1 the lowest, 10 the highest) because we’re in a pandemic and I’m allowed.

This should be fascinating.

At Minnesota (Oct. 24)

Picking a game like this, in a year filled with unprecedented uncertainty, has never been more difficult. Minnesota is capable of leaving an empty TCF Bank Stadium with the Little Brown Jug on Saturday night. Rashod Bateman, who made 60 catches for a ridiculous 20.3 yards per reception in 2019, is back. Tanner Morgan, last year the Big Ten’s best quarterback not named Justin Fields, is back. Minnesota returns its entire offensive line. It should be a really good team.

At the same time … as explosive as their offense could be, the Gophers lost offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca to Penn State in the offseason. Michigan, meanwhile, has its entire offensive staff back. That feels like a big deal in a normal year. More so in whatever the hell we’re calling 2020.

Living life totally on the back of a dominant defense in today’s game only works if a team is recruiting at a truly elite level, and Michigan isn’t. This isn’t to suggest Michigan will have a bad defense, but more a reality that the game remains designed to favor the offense. Josh Gattis was hired as the offensive coordinator to modernize the offense and put Michigan in situations where it can strike quickly and keep up with opposing offenses if its defense is outflanked. He was hired to give Michigan enough bullets to survive a shootout. We might not have to wait long to see if Joe Milton can be the quarterback who unlocks that for Gattis.

I’ve gone back and forth on this game more times than I can count and I’m still not sure. I have faith in Ed Warinner’s ability as an offensive line coach and believe Michigan will be able to run the ball. I also have faith in Gattis’ ability to design a scheme around a player like Milton — who is sturdy enough to be a factor in the run game and talented enough to make every throw — to give U-M plenty of quick-strike chances. I’m all aboard the Giles Jackson hype train; I think he’ll be terrific. In fact, I’m high on most of Michigan’s offensive skill weapons. Even without Nico Collins, they, including the returning Chris Evans, fit what Gattis wants to do better than the core of the unit a year ago. The biggest question is whether Milton’s ready to execute. Don’t expect a masterpiece in Week 1.

Michigan’s defense, as unproven as it might be, still has enough game-wreckers. Aidan Hutchinson, Kwity Paye, Cameron McGrone, Brad Hawkins, Daxton Hill — all of them are capable of changing the game. And, Minnesota has a new offensive coordinator in Mike Sanford Jr. I think Michigan has enough. No crowd should help … I think.

Pick: Win (1-0)

Confidence level: 2

Vs. Michigan State (Oct. 31)

As much as we talk about Michigan’s continued struggles with Ohio State, it’s important to remember fixing U-M’s performance against Michigan State was one of the first things on Harbaugh’s to-do list when he arrived. That happened. Firmly. After the “trouble with the snap” game in 2015, Michigan outscored Michigan State 107-54 with three wins in four years from 2016-19. Last year, Michigan’s 44-10 drubbing of MSU put the talent gap between the two programs on full display.

Michigan’s not running with the nation’s elite talent-wise, but Michigan State’s nowhere near the conversation. New coach Mel Tucker and his staff are in one of the most challenging spots of anyone in the country, taking over in mid-February before spending the next six months trying to learn about a roster via Zoom calls. If MSU has a benefit, it’s that it’ll open the season with Rutgers before watching U-M enter a slugfest with Minnesota. There won’t be much time to mess around with tricks or specialty situations. Both teams will still be closer to “can we get lined up right yet?” mode than fully operational.

Either way, though, Michigan’s talent advantage hasn’t changed from last fall. Never say never, but Michigan playing anything close to a clean game should be more than enough to keep Paul Bunyan for a third straight season. If you’re looking for style points, maybe look elsewhere. But Michigan should get it done.

Pick: Win (2-0)

Confidence level: 8

Defensive back Daxton Hill will have a much bigger role as a sophomore. (Rick Osentoski / USA Today)

At Indiana (Nov. 7)

After getting pushed hard by Indiana in Tom Allen’s first three seasons, Michigan didn’t have too much trouble late last season in Bloomington, winning 39-14. Indiana played without starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. that day and could not keep up offensively as a result. Penix is back now, though, and if Indiana is finally going to kick the door down, it’s going to need a big day from an offense that — like Minnesota — is breaking in a new offensive coordinator. Former Michigan quarterback Nick Sheridan (formerly the tight ends coach) will share offensive-coordinator duties with Grant Heard (formerly the wide receivers coach). Neither has been a Power 5 coordinator before.

At the same time, Indiana’s bringing back as much talent as it has had in some time. Penix can be outstanding. Stevie Scott and Sampson James are a formidable backfield duo. Whop Philyor is a terrific wide receiver and Peyton Hendershot is a very talented tight end. Much like Minnesota, Indiana has what it needs to win at home. The Hoosiers’ margins are smaller, though. Most years, Michigan seems to have enough of a talent advantage defensively to limit Indiana’s ability to run as it spreads the field and tries to tempo the ball in chunks.

As is often the case, I’m not sure Indiana’s defense has enough talent to hold up its end in a game like this. I wouldn’t call it a trap game because Indiana should have Michigan’s full attention. If that’s not the case, then it could be a loss.

Pick: Win (3-0)

Confidence level: 6

Vs. Wisconsin (Nov. 14)

This would’ve been a great year to get Wisconsin on the road. In the meantime, the home-field advantage U-M might have had in a heavyweight fight goes out the window. Tough break. Tougher game.

Jonathan Taylor’s ability to turn chunks into home runs is impossible to replace. At the same time, Wisconsin brings four offensive linemen with starting experience and has more than enough in the bag to have another powerhouse run game. Starting quarterback Jack Coan is out indefinitely with a foot injury, but second-year quarterback Graham Mertz was one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2019 class and has had Wisconsin folks excited for some time. Defensively, Wisconsin’s defensive line is loaded with depth and so is the secondary. There is talent to replace in the middle at linebacker, notably with the departures of Zach Baun and Chris Orr, but there’s a lot of experience on defense.

Wisconsin physically mauled Michigan last season at the point of attack. Taylor could have sat that game out and the Badgers still might have won without too much trouble. Michigan’s first serious gut check of where it’s at defensively up the middle comes against Wisconsin. Getting through the first four weeks with wins over Minnesota and Wisconsin could be a season-changer in terms of confidence. Michigan feels like a very close-knit team; it seems willing to fight for one another. The same goes for Michigan’s retooled offensive line. At the same time, it’s really hard to shake how one-sided the game was a year ago. Michigan has to prove things have changed.

Pick: Loss (3-1)

Confidence level: 5

At Rutgers (Nov. 21)

Greg Schiano is back, which means we’ll probably hear longtime pal Urban Meyer alternate shade at Harbaugh with hype about how Rutgers finally has its act together on Fox’s pregame show. Other than that? Not sure what else to say.

Rutgers is a Big Ten team in name only and will remain as such until proven otherwise.

Pick: Win (4-1)

Confidence level: 10

Look for wide receiver Giles Jackson to make a big impact this season. (Tommy Gilligan / USA Today)

Vs. Penn State (Nov. 28)

The Nittany Lions have some powerhouses in the backfield, a returning starter at quarterback, a smart offensive coordinator and the potential to be very difficult to defend. Journey Brown and Noah Cain are outstanding talents in the backfield. Devyn Ford and Ricky Slade can play, too. And while the offensive line has had protection issues, it should be good enough to give Penn State a chance to do its thing. Sean Clifford, meanwhile, should benefit from working with Ciarrocca, who did great things at Minnesota. Defensively, the losses of Yetur Gross-Matos and Micah Parsons will make the front seven a bit less terrifying, but Shaka Toney and Jayson Oweh can get the job done.

For Michigan, the outcome may hinge on whether the Wolverines have enough defensively to match Penn State’s potential on offense. Clifford wasn’t elite as a junior but he was far from a mess. The Nittany Lions could have a very dynamic rushing attack this season that’s complemented by dynamic tight end Pat Freiermuth and talented youngster Jahan Dotson. There’s no KJ Hamler, but Penn State’s run game could more than make up for it.

This feels like another example of a game in which Michigan’s offense will need to hang in there and match points. Milton should be trending upward by this point in the schedule. The offensive line should be more cohesive, too. Penn State has a lot of talent defensively, but it’s not a stretch to suggest offensive development could have Michigan in a better place by the time this game rolls around.

However …

Defensively, again: Does Michigan have enough up the middle to combat a team like Penn State? Hutchinson, Paye and McGrone are very good football players. If anyone else would like to join that list, they’ll have to show it to us first. This is certainly a game Michigan can win, as evidenced by the second half of last year’s loss in Happy Valley. To give Michigan a win against Penn State right now feels like a stretch. I’d like to see how U-M holds up against Minnesota and Wisconsin first. But right now, I’ll go Penn State.

Pick: Loss (4-2)

Confidence level: 3

Vs. Maryland (Dec. 5)

A December Big Ten game against Maryland inside an empty Michigan Stadium. Totally normal, right?

Year 2 of the Mike Locksley era begins with questions at quarterback, in the backfield and along the offensive line — within a program that looked, at times, dreadful against every Big Ten team not named Rutgers in 2019. Three of Michigan’s first four games feature opponents that have what they need to compete and/or win — and a rival in Michigan State. At least the Penn State game gets sandwiched between Rutgers and Maryland.

It should be a nice way to build some confidence before the witching hour …

Pick: Win (5-2)

Confidence level: 10

At Ohio State (Dec. 12)

Here goes nothing …

Michigan’s offense must enter this game as close to peak efficiency as possible. To steal a win, it must have enough in the arsenal to withstand Fields and everything Ohio State can do to it offensively. It can’t be a “grind the clock, make field goals and hope they accidentally punt a few times” situation. If you’re sensing a theme, you’re paying attention.

Michigan’s best chance to be good this season is for Gattis’ offense to maintain balance while being versatile enough to keep defenses guessing for 60 minutes. Balance with personnel groups, formational alignments and run-pass calls. Milton, above all that, has to be consistent with his accuracy and his decision-making in the quarterback-read run game. Gattis is a creative offensive mind who lives and breathes this stuff. Last year wasn’t perfect, but the Wolverines got better as the weeks went on. If you go back and watch last year’s Ohio State and Alabama games, Gattis found some stuff against two incredibly talented defenses. The execution, however, was poor. Michigan is not good enough from a talent standpoint to play anything less than perfect against Ohio State, Wisconsin or Penn State. You might be able to add Minnesota to that list this season, too.

In a year with such a huge time crunch on preparation, the teams with the best coaching staffs and the most disciplined players are going to have an edge. Ohio State has an elite coaching staff and elite talent. Michigan has enough talent to bother Ohio State. To beat Ohio State, that talent is going to have to play the best game of its life and do so at a relentless pace for the full 60 minutes. Harbaugh is 0-5 against Ohio State and the Wolverines have been unable to claim either of those two points as fact in any of those five contests. That includes 2016. Right now, given what we’ve seen from both sides over the last two years, there’s no way you can pick anything but an Ohio State win.

It is a really tall mountain to climb. But if this year’s Michigan-Ohio State matchup looks the same as it has the last two seasons, it’ll be impossible to turn the page to 2021 without folks at Michigan looking inward and asking a simple question: What, exactly, are we doing here?

You want to get yourselves unstuck? Figure out a way to keep Michigan fans from throwing their television sets into a snowbank before the fourth quarter of the Ohio State game.

That would be a start.

Pick: Loss (5-3)

Confidence level: 9

(Top photo of Jim Harbaugh and Joe Milton: Paul Sancya / Associated Press)