The past week for the Bills has been a whirlwind of activity and emotions. They won their fourth straight game on Oct. 4, starting a season 4-0 for the first time since 2008, and then went about their week as normally as they could while waiting for word on COVID-19 test results from the Titans.
After thinking the game would go on as scheduled Sunday, more positive test results midweek forced the NFL to push it back to Tuesday. Through it all, the Bills have worried about their own health if they made the trip and, if the game were canceled, the potential of losing game checks. They’ve also had to remain focused on the task at hand, knowing the Super Bowl champion Chiefs are up next.
Advertisement
As of Monday, with consecutive days of negative tests, it appears the game will go on as scheduled Tuesday night.
Here are five thoughts on the Bills as they prepare for their Week 5 tilt with the Titans.
1) What to do at LB without Milano
If there were any doubts about how vital linebacker Matt Milano is to the defense, the Dolphins game is all the evidence you need. Milano’s instincts, speed and reaction time are so good that he can singlehandedly alter how an opposing offense calls its plays. The Dolphins, for example, attacked the middle of the field with play-action passes when Milano wasn’t on the field. The Bills become much more susceptible to play action, screens and rushes to the sidelines without him.
The lack of quality depth at linebacker makes Milano’s absence that much more noticeable. To this point, free-agent signing A.J. Klein has been a massive disappointment. The Bills even used former undrafted free agent Tyrel Dodson ahead of Klein when Milano left the Raiders game with a pectoral injury. Klein looks slow and hasn’t shown enough athleticism in coverage, making him exploitable. Klein was supposed to be the top backup outside linebacker and the third linebacker in base defenses. Dodson is the better athlete at this point, and it’s notable that the Bills turned to him first despite the fact he was playing out of position — though the Bills would have been less likely to take that chance in a tight game.
The Bills can get out of Klein’s contract before next season, but the savings aren’t as significant as you’d expect. In 2021, Klein has a cap hit of $6.4 million, but $3.2 million of his base salary is already fully guaranteed. The Bills would still have a dead cap hit of $4 million next season if they cut Klein, though they would save $2.4 million. The Bills would prefer to avoid that type of dead cap hit and, with the potential of carrying a dead cap hit of just $400,000 into 2022, the odds favor Klein hanging around in 2021.
Advertisement
What will we see on Tuesday against the Titans? When the Bills are in two linebacker sets, all signs point to Dodson starting with Tremaine Edmunds. There will be a lot of pressure on Edmunds, who has underperformed while dealing with an injury. Edmunds must be more decisive as a run defender, as Milano is, and weave through traffic rather than accepting blocks. Dodson needs to avoid biting on play action as much as he did against the Dolphins. The Titans will surely test him throughout the game. They have a tight end in Jonnu Smith who’s capable of finding those holes over the deep middle against a zone defense and has the athleticism to gain yards after the catch. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill also has good accuracy on those throws over the middle.
The Bills will likely try to minimize Klein’s time on the field, but they won’t have that option when the Titans go with 12, 21 or 22 personnel. When the Bills face those groupings, they’ll usually go into their base defense and bring a third linebacker on the field. The Titans go that route frequently as it is. And if receivers A.J. Brown, Corey Davis and Adam Humphries are all out on Tuesday, the Bills could be in base defense more than they have been in any other game this season. Right now, that’s the Bills’ biggest weakness on defense, and the Titans would be smart to exploit it as much as possible.
2) Another day for the Bills WRs to do damage
The Bills have been a top-flight passing offense through the first quarter of the season. At this point, it’s become their identity regardless of the opponent’s strengths. This week, the Bills are up against a highly exploitable Titans secondary that is particularly vulnerable at cornerback.
Left cornerback Jonathan Joseph plays off the line of scrimmage to minimize getting beaten over the top, which also opens him up to underneath routes. On the other side, Malcolm Butler will go toe-to-toe with wide receivers at the line of scrimmage, but quick-footed and deceptive receivers can get the better of him down the field. Those matchups play right into the Bills’ strengths. Free safety Kelvin Byard isn’t always reliable to help over the top, which could give the Bills more opportunities to run double-move, deep shots. Stefon Diggs, in particular, could be in line for another big game.
That success depends on Allen getting the ball out quickly against the best pass-rushing defense he’s seen so far this year. The Bills’ offensive line had a strong pass-blocking game against the Raiders, but that group doesn’t compare to what the Bills will face on Tuesday. The Titans have invested heavily into the front seven as the identity of their defense. The Bills might catch a break, with defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons currently on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Even without Simmons, Jadeveon Clowney, Harold Landry, Vic Beasley and Jack Crawford can all get into the backfield and force Allen into more negative situations.
Advertisement
3) What happens if Tre’Davious White can’t play?
Cornerback Tre’Davious White wasn’t at practice last Wednesday and Thursday, the two days the sessions were open to the media. He then did not participate in the closed Saturday session and the Bills have him listed as “questionable” for the game with a back injury. Unlike the other non-participants who carry the “questionable” tag, White wasn’t on the field Thursday with his teammates at all. His absence has been somewhat mysterious, with few opportunities for clarification. The Bills are already without cornerback Levi Wallace, who was placed on Injured Reserve with an ankle injury, so they’ll need another starter opposite Josh Norman if White can’t play.
Cam Lewis, recently called up from the practice squad, could get that opportunity. A 2019 undrafted free agent, Lewis signed with the Bills after a four-year career at the University at Buffalo. He is the logical top candidate to start this week. Even though Lewis is smaller than the Bills’ typical boundary cornerbacks and is best suited to play nickel, he did well with his opportunities on the boundary during training camp. Why wouldn’t the Bills go with nickel corner Taron Johnson or special teams player Siran Neal instead? Moving Johnson would mean two backup players are starting instead of one, and the Bills likely feel they can support Lewis at linebacker and safety. And Neal has been far too inconsistent in coverage during practice. If White can’t play, the Bills are in a tough position without two of their best defenders.
4) Is Tyler Kroft pushing Dawson Knox for more playing time?
The Bills haven’t gotten much production out of their tight ends outside of the red zone. Bills tight ends have four touchdowns in four games, amounting to one third of the team’s total touchdown receptions this season. Dawson Knox, Tyler Kroft, Lee Smith and Reggie Gilliam have combined for an uninspiring 12 catches and 116 yards, putting them on pace for 464 yards over the whole season. That would be worse than what 15 individual tight ends produced in 2019.
Knox and Kroft each have five catches, and Knox statistically leads the way with 78 yards ahead of Kroft’s 36. But Knox hasn’t asserted himself the way the Bills expected him to early in the season. He is more athletic and has greater potential for yards after the catch than Kroft, but so far, he’s fumbled away one of his five opportunities. Drops have also been an issue since the third-round pick arrived in Buffalo last season.
Kroft has been a steadier performer for the Bills through four games, as a pass catcher and a blocker. Knox dominated Kroft in snap share in Week 1, getting 56 snaps to Kroft’s 4. Knox had the overwhelming lead again in Week 2 until he suffered a concussion. In Week 4, with both players healthy, Kroft tore into Knox’s snaps, getting 20 reps to Knox’s 29. When young players struggle, McDermott will often dial back their snap counts to help them refocus with more time on the sideline. Kroft easily outperformed Knox against the Raiders, and we could see more of an even split at tight end as a result.
5) How much do the potential COVID-19 absences affect the Titans?
While the Bills waited to see if they would play their Week 5 game, the Titans wondered which of their players would be available. It’s been so long since the Titans received their first positive tests that some of those players have come off the Reserve/COVID-19 list. As of Monday morning, the Titans have seven players unavailable. That list includes defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, wide receiver Corey Davis, cornerback Kristian Fulton, slot receiver Adam Humphries, outside linebacker Kamalei Correa, tight end MyCole Pruitt and fullback Khari Blasingame.
Of that group, Simmons would be the most significant loss for Tennessee. He has become one of their best defensive players in his second season, especially as an interior pass rusher. Fulton plays the nickel role for a Titans secondary that has struggled this season, which would hurt them against the Bills’ potent passing attack. The losses of Davis and Humphries are also jarring because they play the same position and get a lot of snaps. They would become an even bigger problem if top receiver A.J. Brown (knee injury) can’t play either.
Advertisement
The Simmons loss hurts, but the Titans have one of the deepest front sevens in the league. Tennessee is also not a team with a passing identity, which would lessen the impact of losing Davis and Humphries. They prefer to operate their offense through running back Derrick Henry and a push from their talented offensive line. All of those players are healthy and available to them. Tannehill’s play-action passing to Smith is also a challenge for opponents, and they are both available. When you watch the Titans on film, the potential absences shouldn’t be the difference makers you’d think they’d be.
Bills Projected Inactives: QB Jake Fromm, RB T.J. Yeldon, TE Lee Smith, G Ike Boettger, DE Darryl Johnson, LB Matt Milano, CB Tre’Davious White
Projected Call-Ups: LB Andre Smith, CB Dane Jackson* (only if Tre’Davious White doesn’t play)
Prediction: Titans 27, Bills 23
This matchup is tough to predict because of all the unknown factors and the talent level on both teams. The Titans have had over two weeks to heal and will likely be fresh for Tuesday, but they’ve also had minimal practice time in that span. On paper, they match up really well with the Bills and have the strengths to exploit the Bills’ weakest areas, particularly in the run game and in play action against a Milano-less defense.
The Bills have advantages of their own. Josh Allen and the wide receivers should have success against the Titans’ man-to-man coverage and cornerbacks. They should also have opportunities to attack the rushing edges with Devin Singletary when they target the non-Clowney side.
When you factor in the mental aspects of this matchup, and the fact both teams have had their routines uprooted, the prediction is even more of a tossup. How well the Titans match up with the Bills lead me to choose Tennessee in a close game.
(Photo of Klein: Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images)