Week 5 scouting review: Chase Claypool’s big day, Jamison Crowder a must-start, Kenyan Drake’s targets and more

PITTSBURGH, PA - OCTOBER 11:  Chase Claypool #11 of the Pittsburgh Steelers rushes for a 2 yard touchdown in the first half against the Philadelphia Eagles on October 11, 2020 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
By Michael Salfino
Oct 12, 2020

The Dak Prescott injury, which is likely not only season-ending but potentially career-threatening, is the headline of Week 5. It was a tragic accident. Prescott was not playing as well as his stats but was nonetheless on pace for a record-breaking season. Hat tip to Jason Garrett, who showed a lot of class but mostly humanity in seeking to comfort Prescott while he was being attended to. There are contractual implications that are too depressing and quite frankly cold to get into now. Dak showed great toughness in the aftermath but was clearly overwhelmed coming off the field, perhaps for the last time as a Cowboy.

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Chase Claypool pulled a Gale Sayers with four touchdowns as a rookie (okay, Gale had six). And he had 11 targets. I’m not going to call him the WR1 in Pittsburgh. Yet. But everyone there needs to be reassessed now. His talent was obvious, but the opportunity this early in his career for a team loaded with receivers, given he was criticized for being raw, is what’s shocking. Make sure to unfollow all the draftniks who projected him as a tight end.

The Dolphins have a lot of things going for them now. And the temptation is not to change anything. But you can’t waste a year of a rookie QB contract in the league nowadays. So these Ryan Fitzpatrick wins and the general gumption the team is showing may ironically set the program back.

So much for Jerick McKinnon having standalone value in San Francisco when Raheem Mostert returns. I was very wrong about that. The 49ers are clearly not a committee team now. Mostert is a bell cow, or close enough for us these days. This says a lot about his talent given that Kyle Shanahan seems to have preferred a committee.

Despite an injury, Kareem Hunt is going to have enough of the market share in Cleveland, it seems, to be a Top 5 fantasy running back — or at least to be in that bucket of about 10 guys. His receiving skills make him more likely than most to score that highly, too.

Jets and Giants are a combined 0-10 for the first time in NYC football history. (Get out of here with this New Jersey stuff as the surrounding areas of MetLife stadium are New York City suburbs.)

Devonta Freeman looked serviceable and really powered in his touchdown run.

It was a very bad day for those rostering Kenyan Drake, despite the touchdown. He had just one target compared to six for Chase Edmonds. While Drake dominated the far-less valuable rushes, he gained just 24 more yards than Edmonds on 15 more carries. If a change at RB isn’t brewing in Arizona, it should be.

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Le’Veon Bell looked good in his 13 carries. Running back in fantasy is two-thirds market share and one-third environment. We know the environment is bad. But Mekhi Becton, playing like an All-Pro tackle as a rookie, should return next week.

You need to start Jamison Crowder in every format, as crazy as that sounds.

Todd Gurley has looked great now two weeks in a row. Last week, I was conservative about this but I have to move him up now to about where he was drafted. Gurley is hurting no one who drafted him (And we made fun of you all, we know).

Matt Ryan needs not only game script but elite WR talent and that means a healthy and productive Julio Jones. Just Calvin Ridley clearly is not enough to drag him over the QB12 line. The arm strength, or lack thereof, is a problem now.

Mike Davis is the league winner. Even if Christian McCaffrey is back in two games. It’s unreal how he’s just stepped into the role and produced seamlessly like the fantasy football overall 1-1. Clearly he could catch, which would have gotten you 75% of the way there and that’s not something we could have known. He’s about 95% of CMC.

Sell D.J. Moore, who had just five targets to 13 for Robby Anderson. That’s unacceptable. Moore converted them to 4-93-1, so you should be able to get at least sixth-round value. It’s not getting better.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire was ironically referred to as MEH by my FiveThirtyEight colleague Josh Hermsmeyer (@friscojosh) but I believe the nickname has proven non-ironic.

No one was targeted more than seven times by Derek Carr and it worked. This is similar to what the Chiefs typically do. You need big-play players to make this work, guys like Henry Ruggs who, like Tyreek Hill, don’t need volume.

Travis Fulgham? When you are over 11 yards per target on 13 targets, you have my attention. How did the Lions let this guy go? Here’s a draft profile for the 2019 sixth-round pick. You always think of Victor Cruz when a guy with this kind of (non) pedigree just explodes. There’s the size of the sample but the weight of the sample, too. Could a mediocre player do this against a defense like Pittsburgh’s? That’s the question.

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It was a good day for those rostering Cam Akers. I’ve already apologized for Tyler Higbee, the Cinderella story who has turned back into a pumpkin; I’m not doing it every week.

I was worried for Alex Smith’s life. It was good story but not like this with six sacks on just 13 attempts. The Washington Football Team needs to go back to Dwayne Haskins if Kyle Allen can’t go next week.

Joe Burrow looked like a rookie last week, ironic because Haskins was so much better against Baltimore yet lost his job.

Lamar Jackson (knee) is borderline playable if he’s not able to run.

Mark Ingram (11 carries) is the first Baltimore  RB to break 10 totes all year.

D.J. Chark was overrated by fantasy, generally. I turned the page on him being an impact WR last week given his volume was hardly great, pegging him at about WR25-to-30 rest of season. That seems optimistic now.

David Johnson cemented himself as the bell cow with a late rally in the blow-out Houston win. Brandin Cooks (8-161-1) was great throughout. Cooks, to quote Yogi Berra, is so overrated, he’s underrated. Fantasy touts generally hate the guy. Always fade the hype — and the anti-hype.

Philip Rivers popped with a surprising stat last week as being one of two QBs with a 75% completion rate and 8.5 yards per attempt. It was surprising because he looked mediocre at best. Week 5 showed that sometimes stats seem surprising because our eyes are not lying. Rivers, against admittedly a talented Cleveland defense, looked completely washed. There, thus, is nothing remotely bankable in this Indy offense.

(Top photo: Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

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Michael Salfino

Michael Salfino writes about fantasy sports for The Athletic. His numbers-driven fantasy analysis began with a nationally syndicated newspaper column in 2004. He now covers a variety of sports for FiveThirtyEight and The Wall Street Journal, for whom he also writes about movies. Michael helped Cade Massey of the Wharton School of Business originate an NFL prediction model https://massey-peabody.com that understands context and chance and avoids the trap of overconfidence. He strives to do the same when projecting player performance. Follow Michael on Twitter @MichaelSalfino