In this unique hockey year, the free-agency period is far from over. Many useful players remain on the market after the opening weekend.
But there is also only one team that did not sign a single player since free agency began at noon ET on Friday.
— CapFriendly Depth Charts (@CF_DepthCharts) October 10, 2020
(The Blackhawks have not added anyone either, but they have announced two restricted free-agent signings since Friday.)
The one player the Islanders did acquire over the weekend, winger A.J. Greer from the Avalanche for AHL defenseman Kyle Burroughs, is a restricted free agent. So they traded for some depth but don’t even have their new player under contract, much less anyone else.
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Was this part of Lou Lamoriello’s plan? Maybe. We’re certainly not going to hear many rumors about which players the Islanders are interested in — it’s the way Lamoriello has operated for decades and it’s still true, even in the age of social media and instantaneous reporting. But this unusually silent weekend for the Islanders reveals a few truths …
Dumping salary is nearly impossible
Lamoriello is dealing with a bad confluence of events: The flat salary cap combined with a handful of not-so-great contracts for not-so-integral players, some signed by predecessor Garth Snow (Andrew Ladd, Johnny Boychuk) and some signed by Lamoriello (Leo Komarov, Thomas Hickey). Plus the players themselves are either past their primes or not ones who could give an acquiring team a big boost, which requires the proverbial deal-sweetener.
And that’s another problem area for the Islanders: The sweeteners are limited. There’s next year’s first-round pick which, if dealt, would leave the Isles without first- or second-round picks in consecutive drafts, and the prospect pool is not exactly deep, unless Lamoriello wants to part with Oliver Wahlstrom or Noah Dobson.
The trades made so far to free up cap space have either featured good assets as sweeteners, such as the Rangers sending their 2021 second to the Wings to take Marc Staal’s cap hit, or teams giving up decent players to be free of their cap space. We’ve the seen the latter example with the Maple Leafs sending Andreas Johnsson to the Devils, the Blue Jackets trading Ryan Murray to the Devils for a fifth-round pick and the Golden Knights sending Paul Stastny to the Jets for a conditional 2022 4th.
Lamoriello still has time to find a home for one or two of his difficult contracts. Or he may have to pivot to offering players the Islanders do not want to part with to find some cap space, as Las Vegas is seemingly about to do with Nate Schmidt so it can sign Alex Pietrangelo. That could mean it’s time to shop Josh Bailey, Casey Cizikas or Nick Leddy rather than more clearcut candidates.
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Adding UFAs means subtracting precious cap space
Well, duh, that’s what signing players does! What we mean is that the Islanders, who currently have $8.9 million in cap space, can’t afford to knock that number down with their three RFAs still waiting out there. Mathew Barzal, Ryan Pulock and Devon Toews aren’t front-burner decisions in these first few days of free agency, but Lamoriello is clearly operating with the knowledge that those three are going to eat up anywhere from $12-15 million in cap space next season.
We’ll get into the RFAs more in a moment. The Isles’ approach to the UFA market so far, from what we can gather, has been making inquiries but not really following up with competitive offers. There’s no word on whether they were among the teams to pitch Taylor Hall, who signed a surprising one-year, $8 million deal with the Sabres on Sunday night. Most of the forwards on our Friday free-agent list are still available. New Bruins signee Craig Smith (three years, $3.1 million AAV) was on the Isles’ radar, according to a league source, but they were never in a position to make a real pitch.
It may be that way with Mike Hoffman or Evgenii Dadonov. Even for clearly cheaper options like Alex Galchenyuk or Carl Soderberg, who would fill lesser roles and needs, the Islanders may not be able to commit money now that will be needed later.
That goes for their own UFAs, as well. Lamoriello made it clear earlier this week that he wants to keep Matt Martin, Andy Greene, Derick Brassard and Tom Kuhnhackl, but none have re-upped with the Islanders or signed anywhere else. The slow pace of the market for role players helps the Islanders, since there’s no need for either the team or player to make what could be a rash decision. But the longer the UFA period goes on and as other players sign, some teams may start to hone in on this group.
Thomas Greiss was never coming back, and he signed Sunday with the Red Wings for two years at $3.6 million per. There were some rumblings well before free agency that the Isles might try to move Semyon Varlamov and keep Greiss to team with Ilya Sorokin, but that didn’t make a ton of sense, especially after Varlamov’s postseason performance. With Varlamov at three years, $5 million per, it was a stretch to think another team would make that kind of deal for him when there were plenty of UFA goalies available and most of the prospective starters signed Friday.
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The Islanders do need bodies
That they haven’t signed anyone yet is pretty remarkable given their need for depth. Christopher Gibson, the No. 3 goalie the last several years, signed with the Lightning, leaving the Isles with exactly three pro goalies in the system (and one is 21-year-old Jakub Skarek). They should be able to find an experienced No. 3 given the glut of AHL/NHL goalies still out there. The Isles may have interest in former Sharks backup Aaron Dell for the role.
Otherwise, it’s a very young group below the NHL level. Perhaps Lamoriello is assuming he can’t move all of his tough contracts and a couple of veterans will end up in Bridgeport for whenever the AHL season begins — Hickey and Ladd spent the bulk of last season there. The GM might be OK with having very few NHL-ready prospects on hand for the unknown start of next season.
But teams have been stocking up on depth through these first few days of free agency.
Pulock and Toews filing for arbitration is a plus
It takes the remote threat of an offer sheet off the table for those two and, even though it’s still there for Barzal, the Islanders have the certainty of knowing that they can get Pulock and Toews signed for a year or two in arbitration and kick the cap can down the road a bit, if necessary.
Both players filing also means the Islanders could have a second buyout window if the Pulock contract or arbitration award is over $4 million AAV, which is almost certain. That could give them some flexibility next month, presumably after any trades or signings are done and there’s still more cap maneuvering to do.
With so many players still available and the Islanders having made only one minor trade, a lot could change this week. So far, though, it’s been the quietest 72-hour start to free agency for the Islanders in a long, long time.
(Photo: Dave Sandford / NHLI via Getty Images)