Now that it’s obvious Cam Newton and the Patriots are an ideal fit, it’s worth wondering how long this marriage will last and what it might take for the two sides to make a commitment.
Newton joined the Patriots this summer on a one-year contract worth up to $7.5 million based on a variety of incentive clauses. He is currently on pace to earn $5.5 million if the Patriots make the playoffs, plus another $250,000 for each postseason victory and $500,000 each for Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors.
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Through two games, Newton has completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 552 yards, one touchdown and one interception, and he has rushed 26 times for 122 yards and a league-high four touchdowns. The 31-year-old is a bargain regardless, but he’ll turn out to be the biggest financial steal in the NFL this season if he maintains that level of production.
Since joining the Patriots, Newton has admitted on multiple occasions that money isn’t a primary motivator. But let’s not be naïve to the notion that bank accounts are important. Thanks to a lack of interest around the league this offseason – which feels even more surprising now than it was then – Newton was backed into a prove-it deal under the notion that he could reset his market next offseason.
Meanwhile, Bill Belichick has heaped a ton of praise on Newton during their brief time together. But Belichick historically hasn’t allowed emotion to get involved in contract negotiations, which leads to a tricky element of the business side. Given Newton’s injury history — notably four surgeries in the last six years — does it make sense for the team to jump into contract discussions now when they can wait until the offseason when they’ve got a full picture?
There’s another dynamic at play, too. Although the Patriots could get creative with voidable years or other salary cap gymnastics, they can’t reach a new deal with Newton that increases his 2020 cap hit, which is currently at $1,137,500 and rising by $43,750 for every game he is on the active roster. Since Newton’s $1.05 million base salary is the league minimum for a player of his tenure, an extension that suits both sides would be a challenge.
So again, the most likely scenario involves waiting until the offseason to volley numbers.
Market price
In 2021, the Patriots are projected to have about $65 million in cap space if the salary cap is $175 million. That’s the third-most space in the league, but it doesn’t account for pending decisions on Dont’a Hightower, Marcus Cannon and Patrick Chung, who opted out this season and could reassess their futures next year.
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Either way, the Patriots will have plenty of money to pay Newton. But how much would they be willing to spend? Last August, the Patriots offered Tom Brady a two-year, $53 million contract and were willing to listen to his counterproposals in February and March, though he never made one. So the Patriots have accounted for having that type of contract on the books for a quarterback.
Newton turns 32 on May 11, so he won’t be setting the market or negotiating in the same ballpark as Patrick Mahomes (10-year, $450 million extension in July), Deshaun Watson (four-year, $156 million extension this month) or even Dak Prescott, whenever his new deal materializes.
There are two intriguing comps to Newton’s impending contract. First, Ryan Tannehill signed a four-year, $118 million extension with the Titans in March that included $62 million fully guaranteed. Tannehill executed the deal before turning 32 this offseason.
Second, after his two-year, $66 million extension with the Vikings, Kirk Cousins is effectively playing on a three-year, $96 million pact, which includes $61 million fully guaranteed. Cousins turned 32 in August. Both Tannehill and Cousins got their big paydays after leaving their original teams, which is another similarity to Newton.
Another possible comparison could be Ben Roethlisberger, who signed a two-year, $68 million extension with the Steelers as a 37-year-old in 2019. Like Newton, Roethlisberger has a complicated injury history, although his age and heightened value to his original organization are notable differences to Newton’s situation.
Newton is far more accomplished than Tannehill and Cousins, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll earn a bigger payday. Tannehill, for instance, had the great fortune of hitting free agency during an offseason when quarterbacks were on the move and teams were seeking to fill vacancies. That makes Newton’s three-month standstill in free agency purgatory even more confounding, but he was also coming off foot surgery and was in a tough spot with medical examinations due to COVID-19 restrictions.
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So how can the Patriots keep Newton off the market? It’s tough to envision them doling out a Tannehill type of contract, especially with the 2021 salary cap projected to decrease by about $23 million from this year’s $198 million mark due to COVID-related revenue shortfalls.
From there, a three-year contract might be the most desirable length from a team perspective. If the Patriots offered a three-year, $90 million pact, he’d rank in the top 10 among quarterbacks in average annual salary. Based off those top-10 quarterback contracts (excluding Mahomes’ anomaly of a deal and Prescott’s $31.4 million franchise tag), it’d be fair to fully guarantee 54 percent of Newton’s contract, which would equate to about $49 million.
The Patriots also have the option of using the franchise tag on Newton if negotiations go south. That would buy them some time to reach an extension, but it would also give Newton most of the leverage.
If the Patriots would rather play hardball, they could let Newton hit the market to find his value. Pending injuries, there could be as many as nine teams in search of a quarterback next offseason, but the competition won’t be playing on equal ground.
Plus, as many as three of those teams could immediately rule themselves out of the free-agent quarterback market if they secure a draft slot that would net them Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, Ohio State’s Justin Fields or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. (A wild card would be if a team like the Jets, who have Sam Darnold and don’t currently appear to need a quarterback, get the No. 1 pick and jump on Lawrence.)
So let’s weigh the Patriots’ competition in a potential Newton sweepstakes.
Strong bidders
• Projected cap space: $67 million
• Fit for Newton: General manager Chris Ballard has been constructing a talented roster for three years, and coach Frank Reich has a creative, offensive-minded system. Philip Rivers is under center on a one-year deal, but it’s unclear how long he wants to keep playing. And if Rivers doesn’t lead the Colts to the playoffs or seem to offer the potential of getting them to a Super Bowl, they might choose to go in a different direction anyway. Newton could be enticed by a strong roster, an incredibly winnable division, a dome environment and a team with plenty of money to spend.
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• Projected cap space: $9 million
• Fit for Newton: That low cap number is deceiving because the 49ers could choose to cut Jimmy Garoppolo and create an extra $24.1 million. Coming off an NFC championship, the Niners have a loaded roster, plenty of offensive talent and a creative system with coach Kyle Shanahan.
• One caveat: The 49ers were just absolutely ravaged by injuries Sunday. If they underachieve because of that, it’s not out of the realm of possibility they’d be drafting in the top 10, which could give them a shot at one of the big-three quarterbacks.
Strong bidders under certain circumstances
• Projected cap space: $33 million
• Fit for Newton: There’s some promise with 2019 second-rounder Drew Lock, but he is down for the coming weeks with a shoulder injury. Courtland Sutton, their top receiver, just tore his ACL, and superstar linebacker Von Miller is already likely out for the year.
So while the Broncos might not necessarily be in the quarterback market, it’s not inconceivable that change could be in store, especially if Lock struggles upon his return. Adding to that, the Broncos’ roster already puts them in contention for a top-10 pick.
But who knows? John Elway has had a maddening experience trying to find a franchise quarterback. Newton is more of a sure thing, and that could sway Elway to become more aggressive if they miss the playoffs for the fifth consecutive year.
• Projected cap space: $14 million over the cap
• Fit for Newton: The Raiders have a brutal cap situation, but they can save $19.6 million by cutting Derek Carr and nearly $45 million if they decide to part with Trent Brown, Tyrell Williams, Gabe Jackson and Marcus Mariota.
That’d be an extreme measure, of course, but general manager Mike Mayock and coach Jon Gruden are clearly building a solid roster that could make a playoff charge for the second time since 2003. If they falter because of quarterback play, Carr could be expendable, and Newton would be a major draw for the spaceship the Raiders just built for a stadium in Las Vegas.
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• Projected cap space: $20 million
• Fit for Newton: For whatever reason, the Cowboys and Prescott haven’t been on the same page with their contract negotiations. If they don’t strike a deal and decide against another franchise tag at nearly $38 million, Newton could be the answer for a roster that is built to win now.
The Cowboys would have to make some cap moves to offer Newton a competitive contract, but they’d be an appealing landing spot. Newton already spent one year as a quarterback in Texas when he led Blinn College to a NJCAA national championship in 2009.
• Projected cap space: $50 million
• Fit for Newton: They have plenty of space, and there’s an obvious familiarity with coach Ron Rivera. It’s surely natural to wonder why Rivera didn’t pursue Newton this offseason, but that could be as simple as wanting to assess the performance of 2019 first-rounder Dwayne Haskins.
If Haskins doesn’t measure up and Rivera and Newton decide to partner up again, this could be a natural fit.
Quarterback-needy but maybe not the right fit
• Projected cap space: $6 million over the cap
• Fit for Newton: Imagine trading for Nick Foles when Newton was available and then still starting Mitch Trubisky? That’s almost as bad as drafting Trubisky over Mahomes and Watson. (No, it’s not nearly as bad. Not even close.)
Anyway, Newton would be a terrific fit for the Bears, but the Bears’ cap situation is in nearly unavoidably bad shape. They’d have to rip this thing down to the studs to sign Newton, who would then have to deal with a multiyear rebuild.
• Projected cap space: $78 million
• Fit for Newton: Gardner Minshew’s hot start might take the Jaguars out of the running for a quarterback. But considering the lack of talent around him and the way Minshew came back to earth midway through last season, this pace seems unsustainable.
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Newton has earned $122 million in the NFL, so he is already rich. But the Jaguars have the most projected cap space next year and could make him so much richer.
Would they offer a Russell Wilson deal of four years and $140 million with $70 million fully guaranteed? Or the Watson package?
Even still, Newton would have to be OK with a rebuild for an organization that continuously sells off its young talent, who seem to universally slam that organization on the way out the door. It’d be an odd money grab at this stage of his career.
• Projected cap space: $17 million
• Fit for Newton: The jury is still out on Daniel Jones, but it’s not like he gets a lot of help from his supporting cast. This is a major rebuild for coach Joe Judge, and the Giants are candidates to pick in the top five, where they’d have a shot at a franchise quarterback.
Bottom line
It would be a surprise if the Patriots and Newton are able to reach an extension prior to the offseason due to a number of factors, so these contract negotiations are more likely to heat up in February and March.
If Newton continues to perform as he has in the first two games, the Patriots will be a playoff team and would theoretically be highly interested in keeping Newton. And considering the fit, Newton’s appreciation for Belichick and the chance to win more consistently than he ever did with the Panthers, it’s more than plausible Newton would leave money on the table to remain in Foxboro.
How much is purely speculative. For now, the Patriots should consider a three-year, $90 million offer with $49 million guaranteed. If they can keep him for less than that, it’d be a major win. And if Newton wants more, they can have him test his market with possible suitors such as the Colts, 49ers or one of the wild-card options before returning for another round of negotiations.
It’s already a victory for the Patriots that they’ve even got to consider these options. It just means Newton is playing well enough for the team to envision him in their long-term plans.
(Photo: Matthew J. Lee / The Boston Globe via Getty Images)