The 2020 baseball season will mess with your mind.
A 60-game season defies certainty, something with which Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen has wrestled all year. At the trade deadline, he determined that a month of bad baseball was believable enough to ship away four veterans and not simply run the same team out there next season. Last week, though, he said he doesn’t want to fix his offense by shuffling his deck of hitters, preferring to work with the ones he’s got. As the season nears its end, Hazen faces decisions about his coaching staff. His team is 20-34, but the Nationals started off similarly poorly last year and won a title. Trying to make sense of it is a great way to lose your mind.
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Because of this season’s brevity — along with its other unique circumstances, like a four-month shutdown and a lightning-fast three-week ramp-up to real games — most conclusions that can be drawn about the 2020 Diamondbacks have to be tempered with a healthy amount of skepticism. Thanks to their poor results, most of those conclusions are negative ones. Is the Diamondbacks offense really one of the worst in baseball? Probably not. Is Madison Bumgarner done just one year into a pricey five-year deal? He could bounce back in a normal season. Can any of the prospects the Diamondbacks called up hack it in the majors? Too soon to tell.
But there are a few positive things that can be said about the Diamondbacks, and said with a higher degree of confidence. Hazen may have said ad nauseam that he is not one for silver linings, but here are three for any Arizona fans searching for a ray of sunshine at the end of a dismal year.
1. The Diamondbacks have at last filled their hole in right … for now
After the 2012 season, in what was a stunning move at the time and has only aged more poorly, the Diamondbacks traded away right fielder Justin Upton, the franchise’s first-ever No. 1 overall pick in the draft. That trade produced Gold Glove shortstop Nick Ahmed but precious little else, and it created one big hole in right field the Diamondbacks have struggled to fill ever since.
Since then, the Diamondbacks have used the following in right: Gerardo Parra (didn’t hit), Mark Trumbo (not an outfielder, didn’t hit), Yasmany Tomás (ditto), Ender Inciarte (traded away), David Peralta (plays every day in left now), J.D. Martinez (short-term rental), Steven Souza Jr. (always hurt) and Adam Jones (one-year stopgap). A team having such a revolving door at one position is hardly uncommon — see left field post-Barry Bonds for the Giants, or left field post-Adam Dunn for the Reds — but the Diamondbacks seem to have finally stopped theirs from turning.
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This past offseason, they signed Kole Calhoun to a two-year, $16 million deal to handle right field. In his first season with the club, Calhoun was a spark for them early, wilted (along with everyone else) in the middle of the season and now is red-hot as he’s hit six homers over the last week. (That Calhoun could raise his slash line from .196/.326/.432 to .233/.348/.547 in the span of 26 plate appearances is an object lesson when it comes evaluating this year’s results.) His production continues a trend he began in the second half of 2018, when he returned from the injured list with a new swing that he used to wallop the baseball down the stretch and into the next season for the Angels.
The Diamondbacks may need to make offensive upgrades this offseason, but right field doesn’t figure to be one of them for once. Calhoun is under contract for next season at $8 million and the team holds a $9 million option on him for 2022. By the time they have to decide on that, they should have a better idea of how close their better outfield prospects — Alek Thomas, Kristian Robinson, Corbin Carroll, Dominic Fletcher — are to being everyday players in the big leagues.
2. The bullpen isn’t as hopeless as you might think
The bullpen might seem like a trouble spot. The Diamondbacks traded away two of their longest-tenured relievers in Archie Bradley and Andrew Chafin. Other high-profile members of the pen — Héctor Rondón, Kevin Ginkel, Yoan López — have struggled. But as the Diamondbacks have had to turn to relievers they hardly expected to use in close-game situations, they’ve made some notable discoveries.
Stefan Crichton has ascended from last guy in the bullpen to closer and sports a 2.55 ERA. Starting pitching prospect Taylor Widener has looked impressive in relief — a role many scouts pegged him for from the beginning — as has fellow young starter Taylor Clarke. Junior Guerra has been a stabilizing presence after signing as a free agent over the winter, and even López and Rondón have pitched better as of late. (A notable trend with Rondón: He’s stopped throwing his two-seamer, leaning harder on his four-seam fastball and slider.) There have also been strong performances from Riley Smith and Keury Mella, the former a lower-tier prospect and the latter a minor-league signing, and both of the ilk who might not have received opportunities like this in a normal season.
As you begin to construct the 2021 bullpen, you might wind up finding more spots filled than you’d expect. Crichton and López figure to return for sure. Clarke and Widener and left-hander Alex Young are obvious bullpen options if they are pushed out of the rotation picture. (Certainly, it’s unlikely all three — or even more than one — begin next year as starters in the big leagues.) Guerra can be retained by picking up his $3.5 million club option. Rondón, whose option is less of a no-brainer to be exercised, can be brought back at $4 million. Ginkel could bounce back and the farm system should produce other options beyond the likes of Smith and Mella.
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What that group lacks is experience. Hazen believes bullpens are too volatile to pour oodles of cash into (see: The Colorado Rockies), but every offseason he has brought in veteran relievers to bolster that group. His success rate on those acquisitions is hit or miss, but it’s not like he needs to rebuild the entire unit from scratch.
3. Bumgarner might not be an ace, but Arizona already has one
There really wasn’t a ton of doubt from those who were paying attention, but Zac Gallen has only solidified himself as one of the game’s most exciting young arms after a breakout rookie year in 2020. Through 11 starts this year, he owns a 3.00 ERA and 1.1 WHIP. He has 26 starts in his big-league career, which is about one month shy of a full season’s worth, and he owns a 2.90 ERA. It’s probably safe to remove the word “potential” out from in front of the word “ace.”
Gallen being so good makes it a little easier to squint and see an effective and even good Diamondbacks rotation in 2021. Bumgarner’s last start was strong despite continued velocity issues, and it’s reasonable to think that a normal spring training will help him regain those lost ticks. Luke Weaver’s recent outings have not been the “abomination” that he deemed his first start of the year to be, although he has yet to look anywhere near as dominant as he did a year ago. It’s hard to know what to make of Caleb Smith after only five innings as a Diamondback, but he’s been generally effective in his career and figures to be in the mix next year, too. The 2021 season also should bring returns to health for Merrill Kelly, Jon Duplantier and prospect Corbin Martin.
There’s still a lot of uncertainty there, especially when it comes to Arizona’s injured pitchers. Thoracic outlet surgery is not as fearsome a procedure as it used to be, but it’s hardly assured that Kelly will pick right back where he left off after posting a 2.59 ERA before his injury. Duplantier and Martin won’t have pitched in a game in more than a year. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Hazen bolster his starting depth over the winter to gain a little certainty.
But he doesn’t need it at the top of the rotation. Gallen figures to get Cy Young Award votes this year and for years to come.
(Photo of Gallen: Norm Hall / Getty Images)