A closer look at the Nationals’ debuts, minor-league system and future

With Tuesday’s news that three major-league clubs had reduced staff, the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Braves, a fall of tremendous turnover has already started. The question isn’t whether other teams will follow suit, as Major League Baseball’s plan for each club to whittle down to four full-season affiliates is an easy way to shed costs and whittle player development and scouting departments further.

The question is what long-term ramifications will this have on younger prospects, many coming off a lost season in which they either didn’t play or were stuck at an alternate training site. There were no games at those sites; sometimes, there weren’t even guys in the outfield as it resembled more of an extended spring training than competitive professional baseball.

Aaron Barrett, the final member of the 40-man roster to get a chance this year, said doing the same thing at Fredericksburg every day was one of the toughest things he’s ever endured. Given all Barrett has had to overcome to return to playing baseball, that is truly saying something. Mental and emotional tolls aside, it will take years before we fully know the impact of 2020. For non-prospects stuck at alternate sites, veterans, or journeymen, finding a job could prove incredibly difficult with no stats or other teams getting eyes on them (through scouts or the other team as competition). I’ve heard guys propose making video reels of their performance as one idea. Sadly, others will seriously have to think about retirement.

It’s tough for people who work in scouting and player development to hang their hat on any tangible results or improvement when there’s no barometer. There is unprecedented unease during this time. With the suspension of uniform personnel contracts this spring (UPC), even those who had deals beyond 2020 technically have no job security.

On a more positive note, 193 players have made their big-league debuts through Wednesday, an astronomical figure when you factor in most teams around the 60-game mark, and in a regular 162-game season last year there were 261.

How do the Nats stack up?

The Nationals have had seven debuts, including the youngest and one of the oldest guys. Second baseman Luis Garcia, 20, is seven months younger than the next guy, San Diego’s Luis Patino. Outfielder Yadiel Hernández is the second-oldest player to debut at 32.337 years old, with Toronto’s Shun Yamaguchi, 33, the only player older. All four of the oldest players to debut this year are international players, with Kyle Finnegan (28.325) the fourth-oldest U.S.-born player.

Have all these call-ups been out of need or performance?

Well, mostly the former because of injuries and a wealth of doubleheaders with no off days as teams scramble to make up games because of weather and COVID-19.

How have they done?

Finnegan has been the best call-up performance-wise with a 0.5 WAR entering Wednesday. To be fair, less than half (79) of players made their debut this year with a positive WAR. Here’s the rest of the Nationals:

What doesn’t get captured in this one stat, of course, is encouraging signs like Garcia’s go-ahead home run in the 10th inning and Finnegan getting out of a big spot in Wednesday’s win over the Rays. It’s impossible to say who — if any — of these guys would have been promoted in a regular 162-game season, so it’s fair to expect them to take their lumps and that the Nats would prefer to at least evaluate them in actual games this season.

Who is left?

No one really, as I discussed last week, which is why we will not see top pitching prospects Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli this season. The Nationals farm system has graduated most of its top talent in recent years, with four players debuting in 2019, including touted infield prospect Carter Kieboom. The team will hold some sort of instructional league at West Palm Beach with both players from the alternate site and guys who didn’t play this year. The plans for that aren’t finalized yet, but general manager Mike Rizzo said it’s important to get eyes on all of these guys before 2021 spring training.

Three Questions with Keith Law

I’m not an expert on draft and organizational rankings, so I brought in someone who is. My colleague Keith Law went in-depth on the Nats system this spring and was happy to answer a few more questions on some of the Nats’ top guys as we head to fall.

Ghiroli: You’ve never been super high on Kieboom as a player. Is he the Nats’ answer at third base next year?

Law: I’m not ready to give up on Kieboom as a competent big leaguer — I have never seen why he’d be more than that since he doesn’t have a plus tool — but if the Nats want to contend next year, that’s an obvious place to try to upgrade. Leaving him at shortstop as long as they did in the minors, knowing full well he was not capable of playing it in the majors AND that they had Trea Turner, has probably also left him unprepared for playing third base every day in the majors.

Ghiroli: Luis Garcia: Better or worse than you expected?

Law: Eh. He doesn’t belong in the majors like he didn’t belong in AA last year, and he’s hit like someone who doesn’t belong in the majors. His best attribute as a ballplayer is his age. That only gets you so far, and it certainly doesn’t help you hit big-league pitching.

Ghiroli: Washington’s system is largely devoid of any top names. (Kieboom was your only top 100 guy). Do you see a forced rebuild coming?

Law: The major-league roster is solid enough that they can probably contend as long as their pitching is reasonably healthy, which it wasn’t this year. Eventually, it’ll come down, but I don’t think that’s imminent, even with one of the majors’ weaker systems.

(Photo of Carter Kieboom: G Fiume / Getty Images)