If the Braves had to count on the likes of Touki Toussaint and Robbie Erlin to make more starts for them during the regular season and playoffs, there would be plenty of cause for concern.
But they don’t. And the pending activation of two proven starters from the injured list is a big reason the Braves feel good about their situation with 12 games left in the season — notwithstanding an unsightly 14-1 loss Monday when Toussaint failed to make it out of a nine-run third inning against the previously slumping Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards.
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“These are tough,” said manager Brian Snitker, whose first-place Braves have gotten three innings or fewer from starters in 13 of 48 games, including this latest disappointment from Toussaint. “We’ve been fighting these all year, with some short starts. I think we’ve done an unbelievable job of being where we are with all of them we’ve had. But yeah, it’s good looking forward.”
The Braves (28-20) had won four out of five games before Monday’s loss and are tied with the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs for the third-best record in the NL behind two teams in the West, the juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers and the upstart San Diego Padres.
The Braves got a home run from Freddie Freeman and nothing else of note offensively Monday. But given the stunning degrees of slugging and scoring the Braves produced during the previous 15 games, they could be excused for mixing in a dud, especially after the 10-0 deficit they faced in the third inning, a hole that was too much for even Atlanta’s offense to climb out from.
“Eventually that wears them out, too, when they get down again,” Snitker said. “It does; it wears on their mind also.”
Before mustering five total hits against Jorge López and two Orioles relievers, the Braves batted .300 while averaging 8.1 runs during their previous 15 games, 10 of them wins. They blasted many opposing pitchers in that stretch with 70 extra-base hits, 33 home runs, a .393 OBP and .957 OPS.
Featuring the deepest lineup in Atlanta history, the Braves lead the majors in scoring (5.8 average) and OPS (.829) and rank second to the Dodgers in home runs (83). That offense and impressive bullpen are the big strengths that have helped offset a rotation that ranks among baseball’s worst, with a 6.09 ERA that’s the highest in the NL and the third-highest in the majors, better than only Boston starters’ 6.18 and Detroit’s 6.70.
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But that rotation could get significantly better once the Braves get past Tuesday, when they’ll have rookie Huascar Ynoa make another start in what amounts to using an “opener,” although they’ll hope to get two or three innings from him.
After that, the Braves can begin to take stock of just what kind of rotation they might have by the time the postseason arrives. The highly anticipated Braves debut of Cole Hamels is set for Wednesday’s series finale at Baltimore.
After the final off day in the Braves’ schedule, ace Max Fried is set to return from the IL to start Friday’s series opener on the road against the New York Mets. Fried was 6-0 with a 1.98 ERA in nine starts before going on the 10-day IL last week for muscle spasms in his lower back, an injury that perhaps diminished his Cy Young Award chances but could end up being a plus for Fried and the Braves if the break helps freshen him for the home stretch and the playoffs.
The Saturday and Sunday starts at New York will go to Braves rookie sensation Ian Anderson, who is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in four starts, and Kyle Wright, who impressed with six strong innings Sunday against the Washington Nationals for his first major-league win.
While Wright is just 1-4 with a 7.20 ERA in six starts this season, his pitch repertoire and big-time potential have never been in question, and the Braves hope that Sunday’s showing signaled a step forward in his becoming the pitcher they long have believed he could be.
“Getting Cole stretched out, and hopefully that Ian, Kyle, Max gets back in there doing what he can do, that should solidify things really well,” Snitker said.
In this scenario, the Braves would need to have only one spot start from someone else Monday against the Miami Marlins before going back to the foursome of Hamels, Fried, Anderson and Wright through the final three games of the Marlins series and the first game of a season-ending series against the Red Sox at Truist Park.
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“They’re going to get the majority of the starts, which is a good thing,” Snitker said of that quartet. “Hopefully that’s good enough, with the numbers we have in the bullpen, if we’ve got to throw a bullpen game, we’ll be able to do that.”
The Braves could arrange their rotation as needed for the final two games of the season in preparation for the playoffs, barring a collapse between now and then.
Nine of the starters’ 11 wins have come from Fried and Anderson, and they would likely be the first two starts in a postseason rotation, considering Hamels can’t be expected to be anywhere near full capacity after such a long period out of competition and with such a short build-up.
Hamels, a 15-year veteran and four-time All-Star, signed a one-year, $18 million free-agent deal with the Braves in December and was supposed to help stabilize a young rotation the way that Dallas Keuchel did last summer. But the 36-year-old lefty missed all of an abbreviated spring training because of a shoulder strain sustained before he reported to camp, then missed the summer restart camp and the first seven weeks of the season due to triceps tendinitis and a bone bruise in his pitching elbow.
He has faced hitters only twice in batting practice and simulate-game conditions, but Hamels and the Braves know that time is running out, and they agreed it’s better for him to continue building arm strength while pitching in two or three regular-season games in hopes of being ready to help the Braves in a big way during the postseason.
Hamels has a 3.41 ERA in 17 games (16 starts) during eight postseasons, including three wins and a 1.82 ERA in five division series starts.
The Braves also are trying to get former All-Star Mike Foltynewicz back up to competitive form at their Gwinnett training site, where he has been for seven weeks, focused on regaining weight and fastball velocity after being sent down following a dismal showing in his only start of the season.
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One team official said Folty has continued to make progress in his latest outing at the Gwinnett site Sunday. When Snitker was asked about it, he said, “Saw the numbers. It was OK.”
But even if the Braves aren’t counting on Foltynewicz making it back, they believe they have the makings of what can be a solid rotation by season’s end, just in time for the playoffs.
Freeman, who hit his 11th homer Monday, raised his NL-leading RBI total to 44 and boosted his OPS to 1.105 (second in the league). He said he believes the Braves have enough, with their robust offense and bullpen, to overcome any starting-rotation shortcomings and reach their lofty team goals.
“I truly believe we do,” he said. “I believe in everybody that goes onto that mound. Obviously we all know that the innings haven’t been there (for starters) at the beginning of the games. But that can turn around in a heartbeat, and I believe it will. We just had a couple of injuries, couple of guys go down, so we’re mixing and matching right now. It is tough to cover that many innings all the time; it can wear on your bullpen. But I believe we’ve got a good group of guys that’s going to turn this thing around, and we’ll be hot going into the playoffs.”
Toussaint tumbles
That group for the postseason isn’t likely to include Toussaint. In his fifth and possibly final start of the season, he was tagged for seven hits, eight runs (five earned), three walks and two homers in a season-low 2 2/3 innings Monday.
“Just wasn’t a real good night,” Snitker said, being generous.
Toussaint’s ERA is 8.88, including 7.52 as a starter, and he pitched four innings or fewer in four of his five starts, including three or fewer in the past two. In those past two starts against the Nationals (Aug. 17) and Orioles, he allowed a combined nine hits, 12 runs (seven earned) and an alarming nine walks and four homers in 5 2/3 innings.
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“I don’t know. I don’t know why the consistency, the problem with command …” Snitker said, his frustration evident. “Commanding the fastball again. Even commanding your breaking ball. You leave it in the middle of the plate. He threw some really good ones. He threw some good fastballs. The curveball’s good. I don’t know. I don’t have the answer for it. I don’t know.”
In 11 career starts, Toussaint, 24, has a 6.29 ERA with a solid 54 strikeouts in 48 2/3 innings but also a troubling 31 walks and seven homers allowed.
Another career trend continued Monday when Toussaint stumbled the second time through the lineup and especially with runners on base.
Before facing the Orioles, in 10 starts he limited opposing hitters to a .135 average and .270 slugging percentage the first time through the lineup, with 28 strikeouts in 74 at-bats. But in his second time through a lineup, opponents hit .279 with a .417 OBP and .456 slugging percentage, with 18 strikeouts in 68 at-bats.
Those stats stayed true Monday, as did a season statistical trend: Toussaint had allowed a stingy .184 average and .698 OPS this season with no runners on base before facing the Orioles, but with runners on, that jumped to a .324 opponents’ average and 1.112 OPS, with more walks (seven) than strikeouts (six).
Sandoval signed for bench
The Braves signed veteran third baseman/first baseman Pablo Sandoval to a minor-league deal Monday. The hefty former All-Star was released Friday by the San Francisco Giants and will be assigned to the Braves’ Gwinnett training site for now.
Sandoval, 34, certainly could be a candidate for a bench role on the Braves’ playoff roster. The team sought to add left-handed bats, particularly one with Sandoval’s bat-to-ball skills, if they haven’t eroded beyond repair.
(Top photo of Max Fried: Bob DeChiara / USA Today)