It’s the end of August, and the playoffs are on my mind.
Back in mid-June, I was talking to Cubs president Theo Epstein on the field two hours before a game. We touched on a bunch of topics I needed for future columns, from Albert Almora Jr.’s start in the majors to the idea of character when adding to the team (An obvious nod to then-Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman that proved prescient) to the success of the starting pitching staff.
Advertisement
“Sometimes [Kyle] Hendricks doesn’t get the credit he deserves because he doesn’t throw hard and he does it a certain way,” Epstein said. “But it doesn’t matter how you do it, it just matters how you pitch and he’s been really good. If you look at his first 50-plus starts in the big leagues, it stacks up pretty well against a lot of guys.”
Epstein had no idea that by the end of August, Hendricks would have the best ERA in baseball at 2.09. He threw seven scoreless innings in a 3-0 win over Pittsburgh on Tuesday.
When Epstein and I had this conversation, Hendricks had a 3.05 ERA and was two days away from shutting down Pittsburgh in a June 19 start. He’s shaved off nearly one run from his ERA in his last 14 appearances, with seven scoreless outings (that includes his two-inning relief appearance on July 7).
Now the question is when do you start him in a playoff series? Given that he has a 1.21 ERA in 14 home games (13 starts), how do you not give him the ball in the first two games of the division series? He’s given up 12 earned runs (15 total) in 89 1/3 innings at Wrigley Field this year, with 80 strikeouts and 14 walks.
How’s he doing in night games at Wrigley, considering that’s when he’s going to be pitching in the playoffs? Thanks to our Cubs writer Sahadev Sharma, I found out FanGraphs introduced a splits tool, which made this research easier.
Even better. In 35 evening innings, he’s given up two runs and 21 hits with one homer allowed, 30 strikeouts and eight walks. Opposing hitters are slashing .177/.234/.246 in these games.
Jake Arrieta has thrown 20 1/3 innings in night games at Wrigley and while his ERA is 3.10 in that span, it’s a little misleading given the small sample size. He’s given up seven runs on just 12 hits, with two homers, one triple and no doubles. Opposing hitters are slashing .167/.250/.282. For Arrieta, six of those runs came in five innings in his third time through the order. And if you watched Monday’s game, you realize five of those runs came against the Pirates in the sixth and seventh innings.
Advertisement
So yeah, Arrieta has been pretty good when the lights go on at Wrigley as well.
Jon Lester has had the most evening work at Wrigley this season with 47 1/3 innings. He has a 2.66 ERA in that span with 14 runs. He’s struck out 42 and walked 12 in that span, with six homers allowed. Still, hitters are only slashing .188/.251/.331 in that span.
Would you go Arrieta and Hendricks to start a divisional series with Lester and either John Lackey or Jason Hammel going on the road? Lester has a 2.22 ERA on the road and the most playoff experience of the top three.
Just a thought as we enter September, a month dedicated to mining Cubs minutiae.
How about that for a surprise? On Wednesday afternoon, Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer told the team’s flagship radio station 670 The Score that Tommy La Stella is starting for the Cubs at second base in the series finale with Pittsburgh on Wednesday night. Most figured he’d join the team on Thursday, when rosters expand. The Cubs Twitter account confirmed the move.
Here is tonight’s #Pirates!
Game preview: https://t.co/LjHEVjJolE pic.twitter.com/hsxdB1fOGB
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) August 31, 2016
La Stella became an unlikely story last month after he refused to report to Triple-A Iowa when the Cubs optioned him to make room for Chris Coghlan on the roster at the end of July. He had an option left, so he was the necessary choice when the Cubs needed to make room on their roster.
La Stella wasn’t happy about it and instead of going to Iowa, he decamped to his home in New Jersey, with the team’s permission. It was so strange, you would’ve figured it happened on the South Side. While he eventually reported to the minors, the only words he’s spoken about the issue were to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.
La Stella is expected to meet with reporters Wednesday and it will be interesting to see what he reveals about his decision. Not because I think he owes anyone a hairshirt apology, but because I actually want to hear what he has to say. I think there’s more going on with him than simply hurt feelings.
I don’t agree with the notion that he “quit” on his teammates, unless you’re speaking about the Iowa Cubs. And frankly, who cares about them? (No offense, Matt Murton.) Not only should the Cubs accept him (I don’t foresee any problems), they need him.
You would think La Stella should make the postseason roster because he’s a left-handed hitter and those are invaluable in the postseason given all the right-handed relievers you’re expected to face. He is hitting .301 against right-handed pitching (28-for-93) this season.
Advertisement
I continued to work the FanGraphs’ split tool and found he’s 4-for-15 (.267) with two walks against right-handed pitching at night at Wrigley this season. Is that a big split? Obviously not. But I had time on my hands.
La Stella isn’t likely to get too many starts in the playoffs, right? While I doubt the Cubs are slavish to one season sample sizes, he’s only 3-for-20 (with five walks) as a pinch-hitter this season. And in the seventh inning or later in night games this season, he’s 4-for-15 (.267).
Still, it would be a heck of a human interest story to see him come through in the clutch this postseason.
Speaking of good stories, old friend Jeff Samardzija starts against the Cubs on Thursday at Wrigley Field. I’m a Samardzija fan, and it’ll be fun to watch him go against his old team. Current Cubs are hitting .232 against him, with five homers and two doubles. Dexter Fowler had two triples, a double and a homer against Samardzija in 22 at-bats, but also nine strikeouts. Jason Heyward is 1-for-11 with six strikeouts. This will be Samardzija’s first start against the Cubs since signing his $90 million contract with San Francisco this season.
The Cubs could be seeing more of him in the playoffs. The Giants currently own the top wild card, which will likely give them the right to face Chicago in the divisional round.