Adjusting ADP: 8 players whose values go up with the universal DH (UPDATED)

The official plan to play baseball in 2020 involves a 60 game season, regional matchups and the designated hitter in the National League — a move which will open up at-bats for a group of skilled hitters who would otherwise be platooned or destined for bench duty.

These eight batters stand to gain the most fantasy value from the adoption of a DH in the NL. I took National Fantasy Baseball Championship Average Draft Positions from April 15 to May 10 and adjusted the ADP to reflect a better guess of where these players could (and should) be going in this new truncated season.

1. Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies (605.83 NFBC ADP)

Tapia hit .275 with nine home runs, nine steals and 23 doubles over 426 at-bats in 2019. This was after a minor league career in which he hit .319 with a .364 OBP in eight seasons. He had double-digit steals in each of those eight seasons, and double-digit home runs twice. And he was still looking at being squeezed out by Sam Hilliard and Ian Desmond. The DH should open up at-bats that Tapia should’ve been getting anyway, but assuming he gets most of the benefit from these extra at-bats, one would expect a high batting average, with a 20/20 pace. So maybe .270 with 10 home runs and 10 steals. June 30 UPDATE: Adjusted ADP should be: 350-ish, right around Kole Calhoun. With the Desmond opt-out, I’d put Tapia around 275-280 for a normal person; I’m a fanboy, so I’d probably start looking at him as my OF3 around 130-ish.

2. Austin Riley, OF, Atlanta Braves (299.48 NFBC ADP)

Riley played exactly 80 games last season, hitting .226 with 18 home runs, striking out 108 times against just 16 walks (and while most of his games came at OF, expect him to get 3B eligibility at some point in the season). He was expected to lose the starting third base job to Johan Camargo. But with DH at-bats available, Riley has a chance to build on a very good minor league batting average (.283 over 1,788 at-bats) and growing power (19-plus home runs in seasons where he had 400-plus at-bats). Adjusted ADP should be: He was already in the Top 300, but the playing time should boost him about 50 spots, to the Mark Canha/David Peralta area (with the massive upside worth the gamble).

3. Garrett Cooper, 1B/OF, Miami Marlins (475.5 NFBC ADP)

Cooper broke out in 2019, with a .281 average, .344 OBP and 15 home runs in just 381 at-bats. But thanks to the acquisition of Jesús Aguilar, Cooper was in a playing time squeeze heading into this season. On top of the squeeze, Cooper has a decent history of injuries — to the point where Don Mattingly is openly suggesting Cooper can’t play a full season. “I think the biggest problem is not knowing if we can count on him to stay on the field,” Mattingly told the Miami Herald in December. “So we’ve had to kind of move in a direction that we’ve planned that he’s not on the field every day. He’s a big part of us moving forward but not necessarily the guy that we can pencil in for 150 games or 148 or something.”

One way to solve Cooper’s injury issues? Stick him at DH. With his batting average potential and big power upside, Cooper could be a wonderful dual-position surprise in a shortened 2020 season. Adjusted ADP should be: 300-ish, around Aristides Aquino and A.J. Pollock.

4. Albert Almora, OF, Chicago Cubs (727.82 NFBC ADP)

This can technically be Amora or Steven Souza, as both are in the mix for outfield at-bats and we have no real way of knowing how David Ross is going to construct a lineup. Souza is an easy “prevent injuries by putting him at DH” guy, in the same vein as Cooper, but even if he sees significant DH action, it should open up at-bats elsewhere for Almora.

Almora seems like he’s been around forever, but he’s only 26 years old. And after three seasons of great batting average (.277, .298, .286), he set a career high with 12 home runs in 2019, but saw his average drop to .236. Still, with his value being depressed mainly due to playing time issues (and some poor defensive ratings), the DH at-bats could boost his stock a bit. There isn’t a lot of breakout potential, but if Almora can return to his lower-power, higher-average ways — although it looks like pitchers figured something out last year and threw him significantly more sliders and fewer fastballs than he’d seen in his career — he won’t hurt a team, especially in a deeper league. Adjusted ADP should be: 580-600 range, below Leury Garcia but above or around JaCoby Jones.

5. Jedd Gyorko, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers (719.12 NFBC ADP)

Gyorko had a lost season in 2019, but hit .262 with 11 home runs in 351 at-bats in 2018, and that was coming off seasons of 20 and 30 home runs in 2017 and 2016, respectively. Without the DH, he’s going to be battling for at-bats with Eric Sogard and Justin Smoak; he would’ve benefited from Luis Urias being out, but with the season likely starting in July, that’s off the table (although there’s still a chance Urias isn’t ready for a full-time job yet). With the DH, Gyorko has a chance to step in and start teeing off in the best home park of his career (assuming they play in Milwaukee). He’s still only 30, so Gyorko still has a bit of his power peak left. Adjusted ADP should be: In that 425 area, around Matt Carpenter and Jurickson Profar.

6. Jay Bruce, OF, Philadelphia Phillies (652.04 NFBC ADP)

It feels like Bruce is 37, but he just turned 33 in April. And he’s coming off a season with 26 home runs in just 310 at-bats. Sure, he’s only hit above .250 twice since 2014, but if 20 home runs is going to be the big number to chase in what is essentially a half-season, we just saw Bruce hit 26 in that span last year, split between Seattle and Philadelphia. His ADP was deflated mainly by playing time concerns — Bruce was looking like a pinch-hitter/twice a week starter with Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen likely manning the corners. But throw a DH into the mix and Bruce basically has every-day at-bats. If you can balance out the low batting average, Bruce is almost a guarantee to deliver the power. Adjusted ADP should be: In that 275 Wil Myers/Sam Hilliard area.

7. Darin Ruf, OF, San Francisco Giants (749.27 NFBC ADP)

Darin Ruf hammered the ball in Korea the last three seasons, hitting .313 with 86 total home runs (stats via Baseball Reference):

He was also hitting .429 with three home runs in spring training over 14 games. He had tremendous power and batting average potential coming up in the Phillies’ system in the early 2010s (.295 total average, with 38 home runs in 2012 in Double-A), but was stuck behind Ryan Howard (and played less than Kevin Frandsen in 2013), with a little bit of Domonic Brown, Cody Asche, Marlon Byrd and Jeff Francoeur mixed in. The 2020 Giants have somehow found a way to squeeze him out of playing time, but Ruf could find a home as the regular DH (or at least manning one of the corner spots while Hunter Pence handles DH duties). Adjusted ADP should be: 390-ish; lower than Tapia and Kevin Pillar, but I’d take the gamble over Mitch Haniger and Mike Tauchman.

8. Yadiel Hernández, OF, Washington Nationals (750.99 NFBC ADP, but in the 1200s of players taken)

The obvious Washington upgrade here is Eric Thames, who stands to be freed from a platoon with Ryan Zimmerman at first base. But it also opens up room for Yadiel Hernández, a little-known 32-year old who hammered the ball last season in Triple-A (stats via Baseball Reference):

He has great hitting skills, the power is legitimate, and at 32, he’s a veteran who can be valuable to a team looking to defend its title in a shortened season. In fact, in six seasons playing in Cuba, Hernández averaged 86.5 games played, which is right in line with the latest MLB proposal. Adjusted ADP should be: I’d take a shot around 640, in the Hunter Pence/Cameron Maybin area.

And now, some special bonus guest analysis from your friend and mine, Derek VanRiper

9. Matt Carpenter, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals (413.10 NFBC ADP)

Matt Carpenter’s playing time floor rises if the Cards have a DH, and projecting his 2020 without one is a tall task. If Carpenter hits, he will play, since Tommy Edman’s defensive versatility can lead him to playing time elsewhere. The Cardinals could also give Tyler an uptick in playing time, since his path to regular starts in the outfield will likely be obstructed with the arrival of Dylan Carlson.

10. Gavin Lux, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers (161.86 NFBC ADP)

One of the biggest questions this draft season has been the expected role of Gavin Lux. Without a DH, the Dodgers’ depth could leave him in a semi-regular role, unless the team wants A.J. Pollock to play frequently against right-handed starters. In that case, Cody Bellinger could move to first base with Pollock in center, flanked by Mookie Betts and Joc Pederson, which would bump Max Muncy from first to second, and effectively leave Lux on the bench. With a DH, it’s difficult to see the Dodgers benching Lux, especially since he has nothing left to prove at the Triple-A level. Since 2010, no player age-23 or younger has posted a better wRC+ at Triple-A than Lux’s 188 mark in 2019 (min. 200 PA). It seems likely that Lux will be buried in the bottom of the batting order, at least initially, with Betts, Bellinger, Muncy, Justin Turner and Corey Seager likely locked into places throughout the top-six, one spot in the top-six could be left for one of Lux, Will Smith, Pollock or Pederson, who led off in every one of his 103 starts against a right-handed starter last season.

These are just eight of 15-plus possible value jumps, and the situation will probably change a few more times before July. Feel free to drop omissions or your own targets in the comments. And good luck!

(Top photo: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)