In this 10-part series, Paul Dehner Jr. and Jay Morrison take a deep dive into the Bengals’ draft strategy by taking stock of each position and addressing where need meets fit. We analyze the current roster, trends, analytics, sleepers, bold moves and opinions from our draft gurus Dane Brugler and Joe Goodberry.
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The lineup
- April 6: Offensive line
- April 7: Defensive tackle
- April 8: Tight end
- April 9: Edge rusher
- April 13: Quarterback
- April 14: Linebacker
- April 15: Running back
- April 16: Cornerback
- April 20: Safety
- April 21: Wide receiver
Positional priority
Three of 10. The Bengals constantly bemoaned the lack of explosiveness in their passing attack last year. They never had enough speed to threaten the defense and pull them off tight coverage. It was debilitating. Sure, they get back A.J. Green and a healthy John Ross, but they definitely can’t count on either to be around in 2021. It’s time to add a piece to grow with Joe Burrow and maybe become the No. 1 receiver of the future.
Contract signed through …
2020
- A.J. Green: On the franchise tag and negotiating a long-term deal. He has until July 15 to get the contract done or he will play on the one-year, $18 million contract and then enter free agency in 2021.
- John Ross: Team is not expected to exercise Ross’ fifth-year option so this will be the final year of his rookie contract and, barring a healthy, breakout season, his last in Cincinnati.
- Alex Erickson: Former undrafted wideout will yet again be fighting for a roster spot, but this time doing so without a feather in the cap as kickoff returner.
- Mike Thomas: Signed from the Rams for depth, a player Zac Taylor liked when coaching him in L.A. and was overlooked because of a stacked WR group there.
- Stanley Morgan: Undrafted last year and saw spotty time as a receiver, mostly making an impact on special teams.
- Damion Willis: Dazzled in the offseason program and preseason last year enough to shockingly earn a start on opening day, but ended up an afterthought as the season progressed and was eventually moved to practice squad.
- Trenton Irwin: Returning to the practice squad would be the best-case scenario.
2021
- Auden Tate: Broke out last year and positions himself as a nice sub-package receiver for the red zone, run game and third down because of his big body, catch radius and absurd hands.
2022
- None
2023
- Tyler Boyd: One of the best slot receivers in the league, he proved capable of carrying the designation of a quality No. 2 while notching his second consecutive 1,000-yard season last year.
Rate the class
Historical. You can argue the best and deepest the league has seen and will be the talk of this draft. When they go and the value produced in the later rounds might define this draft three years from now. There’s a chance we’ll see more receivers selected in the first four rounds of this draft than any in history. If you need a receiver — and the Bengals do — this is the draft for you. It’s just a matter of what traits you desire and when you feel like it’s the best time to go for them.
NFL trend
For a Bengals team looking to find an instant impact receiver who could develop into a true No. 1 in future years, you need to evaluate where those players are coming from. It’s not as straightforward as you think. In fact, there’s a clear delineation that goes against the common thought process.
Twenty players have graded (via PFF) in the top 15 among all receivers at least twice over the last half-decade (or did so as rookies last year). We can safely define them as the real dudes. The legit draft hits at WR.
PLAYER | ROUND | OVERALL | TOP 15 YEARS |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | 3 | 3 | |
1 | 4 | 4 | |
1 | 6 | 5 | |
1 | 7 | 3 | |
1 | 12 | 3 | |
1 | 27 | 4 | |
2 | 41 | 2 | |
2 | 47 | 4 | |
2 | 51 | 1 | |
2 | 53 | 3 | |
2 | 61 | 2 | |
2 | 63 | 3 | |
3 | 76 | 1 | |
3 | 76 | 3 | |
3 | 84 | 2 | |
3 | 92 | 2 | |
5 | 165 | 3 | |
6 | 195 | 3 | |
UFA | 2 | ||
UFA | 3 | ||
AVERAGE | 2.9 | 59.1 |
The breakdown of their draft round makes for an interesting analysis all teams should consider when trying to answer the question of when to strike this year.
- First: 6
- Second: 6
- Third: 4
- Fourth: 0
- Fifth: 1
- Sixth: 1
- Seventh: 0
- UFA: 2
There is little difference in whether you were picked in the first or second round.
A slight drop-off, but still success stories in the third round.
Basically, once you get out of the top 90 overall, it’s over. You missed.
The thing about this year is it can be argued you will be getting second-round value in the third and third-round value in the fourth just because of the volume of talent. Under that assumption, the Bengals could be comfortably in that second-round window with their No. 65 overall pick that leads off the second round. They might even be able to snag a top-90 value with their first pick of the fourth round (108). Waiting beyond that point would mean a failure in hitting what they desire and taking advantage of this draft’s strength.
Over the last five years, the average is 11.8 WRs taken in top 100. Last year, 13 were taken in that range. I believe 18 of the top 100 players in this draft are WR's. However, I doubt we see 18 go in the top 100. That means there will be excellent value later in the draft. https://t.co/XGOuD2BIgf
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) April 17, 2020
Bengals recent draft history
- 2019: None
- 2018: Auden Tate (seventh, 253 overall)
- 2017: John Ross (first, 9 overall); Josh Malone (fourth, 128 overall)
- 2016: Tyler Boyd (second, 55 overall); Cody Core (sixth, 199 overall)
- 2015: Mario Alford (seventh, 238 overall)
Bengals second-round WR history
When Cincinnati has taken swings at receivers in the second round it provided incredible returns with Jerome Simpson the only miss of the six attempts. This could end up the year they go back to the well to supplement Burrow.
- Year: Player (Career yards/TDs)
- 2016: Tyler Boyd (2,902/15)
- 2008: Jerome Simpson (2,058/9)
- 2001: Chad Johnson (11,059/67)
- 1994: Darnay Scott (6,193/37)
- 1992: Carl Pickens (7,129/63)
- 1981: Cris Collinsworth (6,698/36)
Key variable
A.J. Green’s future. If the Bengals are of the belief they will be letting Green play out this last year on the franchise tag and probably not agreeing to an extension by the July 15 deadline, then they need to be in the market for a potential 2021 No. 1 receiver. A player who can ease in this year and hopefully develop into a top player by the time Green potentially departs in free agency. It’s unclear whether the Bengals and Green reach an agreement on an extension, but it’s hard to see the Bengals paying up until they see Green healthy.
PFF college research
If the Bengals are looking for more explosion down the field, let’s take a look at PFF’s deep grade among those projected by the service to go in the first four rounds.
- Tyler Johnson, Minnesota: 94.9
- Tee Higgins, Clemson: 94.5
- Chase Claypool, Notre Dame: 94.3
- CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma: 92.9
- Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty: 92.4
- John Hightower, Boise State: 90.9
- Michael Pittman, USC: 90.6
- Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State: 90.4
Senior Bowl spotlight
Denzel Mims, Baylor. He walked away from Mobile one of the most talked-about prospects. Bengals WRs coach Bob Bicknell, was a familiar face in Mobile, having coached him two years ago at Baylor. Mims showed off separation against press coverage, which had been something he didn’t have to do much for the Bears. He was dominant at the catch point down the field. Then when he posted a 4.38 in Indianapolis a month later he was officially a fast riser and serious contender for the Bengals to consider at 33 or at a potential drop back in the second round. There are a ton of arrows connecting him to Cincinnati.
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Sleepers to track
Tyler Johnson, Minnesota. His production for the Gophers was incredible and he boasts one of the top deep receiving grades in this class. He’s slow for the position. That will push him down boards, but his precision as a route runner sets him apart and it’s hard to argue with the playmaking. If you are sitting there on Day 3 and haven’t taken a receiver yet, Johnson would be a slam dunk.
Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State. Yeah, he doesn’t belong in the “sleeper” category considering he could be a first-round pick, but there are so many quality receivers beyond the top three (Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs) that pulling out who fits the Bengals best among the second wave makes sense. You can see them drooling over his run after catch ability and explosiveness down the field.
Laviska Shenault, Colorado. Same first sentence as Aiyuk. Not a sleeper, but a polarizing prospect because of his freakish athletic ability — he’s probably the best athlete in this class — coupling with an injury history and unpolished game. Teaching him the nuances of the position while using his dynamic ability with the ball in his hand seems like a nice starting point that could fit the Bengals well. You just wonder how much of John Ross’ injury history will be in the back of their head when taking another receiver who had trouble staying healthy in college.
Jalen Reagor, TCU. Can you explain away his drops and periodic lack of focus? If you can, then he stands out as a perfect Bengals fit considering he might be one of the most dynamic playmakers down the field in this draft who can be a home run threat with the ball in his hands, too. The warts keep somebody with his speed and playmaking potentially out of the first round, but he’d be a Bengals fit in the second or top of the third.
Bold move
Any receiver at 33. The bold move would be selecting a receiver at 33 and not trading back. With so many in this talented group that will come off the board in the early portion of the second round, sliding back to acquire a midround pick (as they have three years in a row) and still grab one from this group makes a ton of sense. If they stand pat and pass up the chance to add a later pick, it would mean they really believe they are getting a first-round talent at 33. That’s very possible.
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Brugler background
The Athletic‘s draft guru and author of The Beast, the incomparable draft guide, Dane Brugler on the fit for the Bengals at receiver that could slip down to the first pick in the third round:
“With the first pick in the third you are looking at second-round talents that made it that far. Could a Tee Higgins from Clemson fall that far? Could a Chase Claypool from Notre Dame fall that far? That would be an interesting fit with Claypool because he looks like a tight end at 6-4, 240 pounds but he has speed of a receiver that immediately stands out where he can get down the field and win jump balls. He doesn’t always use his size to advantage, he needs to be a more polished route runner but just the raw tools that he offers as a guy who was a basketball player most of his life … in normal years he’s going second round but he could be there the first pick in the third round.”
Hear that Podcast Growlin’
PFF lead draft analyst Mike Renner on a recent episode of HTPG on Joe Burrow teammate Justin Jefferson and why he wouldn’t like the fit with Cincinnati despite his QB connection:
“For me, it’s redundant to what they have in Tyler Boyd. They are very similar types of wide receivers. That’s very good over the middle route-runners. Very crafty and very good ball skills but not necessarily take-the-top-off-the-defense kind of guys. Not necessarily a guy you can rely on on the outside to beat man coverage. That’s just what I worry about is that’s just not quite as valuable as a guy like a Jalen Reagor who can get open down the football field on his own and doesn’t have to be schemed the ball over the middle of the field.”
Goodberry take
Bengals/draft analyst Joe Goodberry offers his film review of the best Bengals fits and how they could affect the roster.
Bengals positional draft preview from The Athletic on Vimeo.
They said it
Duke Tobin on the dynamics of the deep receivers class and what that means for him:
“It all depends on what you want. There’s a lot of different types of wide receiver and each team maybe is looking for a little bit different thing, whether it’s a guy that plays inside or whether it’s a guy that can play outside, whether it’s a guy that’s good with the ball in his hands for jet sweep-type things, whether it’s a guy that can provide something in the return game or in the coverage units. So there’s a lot of different styles (of) guys. I think that’s why you see it being advertised as very deep, because when you put all of those different-style guys together and call them all wideouts, then that becomes a large group. But if you’re just having a certain style, then it thins out a little bit. But it is a good group of guys, an impressive group of guys top to bottom.”
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Where they’ll take one
Somewhere between 33 and 65. Whether they stand pat and pick one with the first pick of the second round, trade back to add picks or use the first pick in the third to take advantage of the depth of the class, that’s where a receiver comes off to them. Look for one with explosiveness down the field as a core trait of their game.
Prediction
Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor. Too much about this feels like the right fit for exactly what the Bengals offense needs. The speed and vertical threat he showed at Baylor and the Senior Bowl check those important boxes. Familiarity with his personality comes with Bicknell at Baylor and the entire staff in Mobile. You could easily see Mims as No. 2 this year and developing into a No. 1 next year if Green moves on.
(Top photo of Denzel Mims: Jerome Miron / USA Today)