Davis: My picks against the spread for Virginia-Vermont, Kansas-East Tennessee State and the rest of the night’s best games

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 16:  Anthony Lamb #3 of the Vermont Catamounts scores the game winning basket with two-seconds remaining against the St. John's Red Storm at Carnesecca Arena on November 16, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Steven Ryan/Getty Images)
By Seth Davis
Nov 19, 2019

It’s going to be a lean couple of weeks as we head toward the holidays and exams. But we here at The Athletic are committed to bringing you our near-daily picks against the spread. I’ve sifted through the rubble and picked out five rough-edged gems for the night’s viewing. Enjoy.

Bucknell at Penn State (-15), 6:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network. As I mentioned in Hoop Thoughts, the Nittany Lions are living up to their preseason billing. They’re getting a surprising early lift from 6-3 sophomore guard Myreon Jones, who scored a career-high 21 points in an 81-66 win at Georgetown and is averaging 15.0 points per game through the first three games (up from 4.0 last season). The Bison lost a tough one at Canisius over the weekend on a buzzer-beating layup to fall to 2-2. The pick: Penn State

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Vermont at No. 7 Virginia (-14½), 7 p.m., ACC Network. This is a good chance for you to check out Catamounts guard Anthony Lamb. The 6-6 senior hit a jump shot with two seconds left to give Vermont a 70-68 win at St. John’s on Saturday. Lamb has a classic old man’s game, but it’s safe to say he has never seen a defense like the one the Cavaliers will sic on him. Virginia fans have to be happy with the offensive progress made by 7-1 junior center Jay Huff, who is averaging 11.7 points on 72.7 percent shooting. The real opponent for Vermont in this game will be emotion. It’s won’t be easy for the Catamounts to ramp things up again after such an emotional win. The pick: Virginia

UMBC at LSU (-17), 7 p.m., SEC Network. The Tigers have had less than stellar perimeter play on both ends of the floor. They rank 348th nationally on KenPom.com in both turnover percentage and steals percentage. Will Wade moved sophomore forward Emmitt Williams into the starting lineup for a win over Nicholls State, but this could be a sign of trouble. UMBC has only played one game against a Division I school, and that was a four-point win at Florida Gulf Coast. Still, I think the Retrievers can at least hang around and make this interesting. The pick: UMBC

Texas Southern at Arkansas (-23½), 8 p.m., SEC Network. The Hogs are perfect in the Eric Musselman era, thanks to a relatively easy home schedule with lots of home cooking. Muss likes his guys to play defense, so it’s not totally surprising that Arkansas has held all three opponents to under 50 points. The team’s leading returning scorer and best player, 6-5 sophomore guard Isaiah Joe, shot 2-of-13 in the Razorbacks’ 64-46 win over Montana. If they can win by that much with their best player shooting so poorly, I figure they can cover this spread against a team that isn’t as good as Montana. The pick: Arkansas

East Tennessee State at No. 4 Kansas (-14), 8 p.m. The Buccaneers are no walkover. They are ranked No. 68 on KenPom.com and have won at least 24 games in each of the last four seasons. The Jayhawks had an easy time against Monmouth on Friday, but they also beat UNC-Greensboro (No. 96 on KenPom) by just 12 points on Nov. 8. Bill Self has a lot of good pieces, but he is still trying to find a comfortable balance between utilizing his bigs and playing the smaller lineup that is much more effective in today’s game. It’s also troublesome that starting point guard Devon Dotson has nearly as many turnovers (9) as assists (11) through three games. The pick: East Tennessee State

Last time: 4-5-1

Season total: 17-17-1

(Photo of Anthony Lamb: Steven Ryan/Getty Images)

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