Derrick Henry needs a new contract after this season and the Titans will give him one … right?

When he roared 68 yards down the field for a touchdown last Sunday, his long legs carrying that impossibly large 6-3, 247-pound frame, Derrick Henry gave Titans fans another thrilling taste of the unique talent he’s become.

Since the final month of the 2018 season, Henry leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,417) and rushing touchdowns (15), and he’s topped the 75-yard mark in 11 of those 14 games.

The big man from ‘Bama has accounted for nearly three quarters of the Titans’ rushing yardage in 2019, produced eight of the team’s nine rushing touchdowns and — just for fun — even has two TD catches, tied for second-best on the squad.

Where would the Titans be without him?

It’s a worthwhile question to ask, considering Henry is not under contract beyond this season.

There are plenty of other Titans in the same boat — cornerback Logan Ryan, tackle Jack Conklin, and quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill and Marcus Mariota among them — but Henry’s case promises to be very closely watched.

Is it automatic, given what Henry’s meant to the Titans’ offense over an extended period — not to mention his fit in this particular scheme — that the team locks him up with a big, multi-year contract?

If so, what’s a price tag that both sides will think is fair?

Or is there any chance the Titans — seeing the production of other running backs drop after signing new deals — choose to go in a different direction than Henry, figuring they can always find another back in the draft, one that might catch more passes to boot?

“Personally, I’m philosophically opposed to paying big money to any running back. That’s just me,” said Nashville native Joel Corry, a former sports agent who’s now an NFL business analyst for CBSSports.com.

“Because I think you can find running backs practically anywhere. You have to be an extremely special running back for me to make an exception to that rule. But this is a team where Derrick Henry may have more value in Tennessee than elsewhere. … So this may be a place where you do pay your running back.”

Here’s a breakdown of the thinking that will factor into Henry’s future with the Titans, as well as a couple of estimates as to the kind of deal that might eventually be struck.

Get a deal done

A good fit

The Titans have run the football on 43.2 percent of their plays this season, the 11th-highest figure in the league. In 2018, the Titans ran the ball on 54 percent of their plays, the third-highest figure in the league.

That type of offense is a particularly good fit for Henry, who thrives on plenty of carries, but hasn’t proven much of a receiving threat out of the backfield.

“We’re not the only team, but we’re one of the teams where Derrick fits perfectly and because of that, I would have to think both sides will look long and hard (at a new deal),” said Floyd Reese, the former Titans general manager who’s now a radio host on 102.5-FM The Game. “You look at a guy like DeMarco Murray, who led the league in rushing in Dallas, and then goes to Philadelphia and he can’t gain a yard. Then he comes here and he leads the AFC in rushing. I think that shows you how important where you go is for the player.”

Along the same lines, the Titans don’t appear to be on the verge of transforming into a throw-it-around-the-park team anytime soon. So if you’ve found a formula that works to your liking — as the Titans seemingly have with Henry — why not stick with it?

“On this team, he’s very important because you don’t have a dynamic passing game,” Corry said. “Delanie Walker is older. Corey Davis hasn’t fulfilled the promise of a No. 1 receiver yet. So … where are you without Derrick Henry?”

Added Reese: “If you ask people throughout the league, they’re going to say, ‘Hey, the Titans are going to be physical. They’re going to pound you. They’re going to run the ball.’ … They’ve got kind of an M.O. from that standpoint that Derrick fits perfectly.”

Durability, consistency

In four seasons, Henry, who will turn 26 in January, has played in 57 of a possible 58 games. Granted, he wasn’t a full-time starter until 2018, but Henry has still shown an impressive ability to stay healthy despite taking so many hits. The longest time he’s been sidelined was training camp this season, when a calf injury kept him out of the entire preseason. But as far as injuries suffered during actual games, it’s hard to remember Henry ever limping off the field or needing medical attention.

Henry’s also become increasingly reliable after struggling with consistency in his first couple of seasons — and some of his third season. In Henry’s second year, for instance, he topped 90 yards three times, but was held to 25 yards or below seven times. But the stat mentioned earlier — 11 games of 75 yards or better in his last 15 — is a pretty good sign Henry has figured things out.

Henry finished seventh in the NFL in rushing yardage last year, and he’s fifth in 2019.

“It’s been more along the lines of 80 yards a game, 80 yards, 80 yards, and then 150 yards,” Reese said. “That’s what you need, so you can go out every single week and count on a certain amount of production in the run game. That’s what he gives you.”

Not cash-strapped

Taking a glance toward next season, the pro contract website Spotrac.com lists the Titans with $63 million of cap space, the 14th-highest figure in the league and a good chunk more than the league average of approximately $52 million.

The Titans do have a number of unrestricted free agents upcoming at the end of this season, but they don’t appear to be too cash-strapped to sign Henry.

If the club decides to hang on to Tannehill, it’s unlikely to be a huge, multi-year contract. Potential new contracts for recent first-round picks like Conklin, Davis and Adoree Jackson don’t look like they’ll be back-breakers either.

“(The Titans) aren’t paying a quarterback,” Corry said. “And even if Corey Davis is your No. 1 receiver, you don’t have to pay him for a couple of years, anyway. You’re not going to franchise Jack Conklin, even though he’s playing better. So I think on this team, you pay (Henry).”

Face of the franchise?

With Mariota losing his starting job this season, Henry has become the face of the franchise.

The “Hen-ry, Hen-ry!” chants that erupt from time to time at Nissan Stadium are reminiscent of the “Ed-die, Ed-die!” chants of yesteryear with Eddie George. It doesn’t hurt Henry’s popularity either that he’s A) a former Heisman Trophy winner; B) a former Alabama standout in the heart of SEC country; and C) gains much of his yardage in a popular, pile-moving fashion.

So on a Titans team that is less than loaded with star power, what statement would it make to a small fan base — even if it made long-term economic sense — to part with Henry?

Henry has 832 yards and eight TD runs on 187 carries through 10 games. (Christopher Hanewinckel / USA Today)

Hold on a minute

How much tread on the tires?

There are a couple ways of looking at this.

The fact that Henry played behind Murray his first two seasons has helped lower his rushing attempts. By the end of 2019, Henry will likely have about 800 career carries, an average of 200 attempts over four seasons. That compares favorably to a player like the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott, who averaged 289 carries in his first three seasons before signing a big new contract this year; the Rams’ Todd Gurley (average of 262 carries in first three seasons before signing a big new contract); or the Jets’ Le’Veon Bell (average of 246 carries in five years before signing a big new deal).

“It’s actually going to work to his benefit that DeMarco Murray was eating up the mileage,” Corry said, “because you can’t use the mileage against him the way you otherwise might be able to.”

Henry also hasn’t taken nearly as many hits after catching passes as many other backs have over the years.

On the other hand, Henry is still averaging more carries per game than a couple of backs who signed big contracts in the past few years, such as Houston’s Lamar Miller (average of 160 in four years before his new contract) and Atlanta’s Devonta Freeman (average of 185 in three years before his new contract).

In addition, one can’t simply gloss over the fact that Henry had 567 rushing attempts over his final two years at Alabama, including a staggering 395 during his final year with the Crimson Tide.

Not a big pass-catcher

Most of the backs who have earned big contracts in recent years have been dual threats, players who stay on the field three downs and do damage in the running and passing games.

For example, over each of their first three seasons, Freeman averaged 52 catches, Elliott 45 and Gurley 43.

Henry’s never caught more than 15 passes in a season, though he’s on pace for 21 this year.

So if the Titans were going to dole out big bucks to a running back, should they only do so for one with more flexibility?

“He’s more of a throwback, conventional, previous generation ball-carrier,” Corry said. “He’s not a multi-dimensional asset … So I would hold that against him salary wise.”

Said Reese: “I would guess (the Titans) are more aware of (Henry’s shortcomings as a pass-catcher) than anyone else would be. Because of that, you have to think they’re OK with it. Again I think that’s a big plus when it comes to both sides of the table. They both understand exactly what they’re getting and are willing to be OK with that.”

Buyer beware on backs

With a few exceptions, the lifespan of NFL running backs isn’t lengthy. That’s why signing any backs — no matter how talented — is tricky. One never knows when the end of the road is near.

Here are a couple examples of running backs who’ve taken a downturn after signing big second contracts:

• In the three years before signing his new deal, Gurley was a dominant force, averaging more than 100 yards of offense (combined running and receiving) per game, producing 23 runs of 20 yards or more and totaling 35 touchdowns. But after signing a four-year, $60 million deal in 2018, things started going downhill for Gurley toward the end of last year when he hurt his knee. He hasn’t been the same back this year and is on pace for an 800-yard season.
• In the two years before signing his new deal, Freeman twice earned Pro Bowl honors, topping 1,000 yards on the ground in both seasons and totaling a combined 28 touchdowns running and receiving. Since signing a five-year, $41.25 million deal in 2017, Freeman hasn’t fared as well. Injuries have limited him to 25 of a possible 41 games, and he’s averaging just 3.5 yards per carry this year — on pace for a 660-yard rushing season.

“Yeah, that can be scary, because by the time you get to the second contract, which is where (Henry) will be, it’s not unusual for these guys to not quite make it to the third contract, depending on how long it is,” Reese said. “Running back, unfortunately, outside of Adrian Peterson and maybe a couple other guys, once you get to that 30-years-old mark, there’s kind of an invisible barrier there.”

Derrick Henry (Dale Zanine / USA Today)

Bottom-line bucks

What might a new contract look like?

Corry raised the possibility of the Titans using a transition tag on Henry, which would give the team the right of first refusal if another team made an offer for him. Henry’s one-year salary would be the average of the top 10 at his position, which this year was about $9 million for running backs.

But if the Titans decide to sign Henry to a multi-year deal, Corry thinks the average annual salary would be closer to a player like Freeman (who’s averaging $8.25 million per year) than it would be to the top tier — players like Elliott, Gurley, Bell and David Johnson, all of whom are averaging $13 million or more.

“I wouldn’t pay (Henry) more than $10 million, which is in between those two tiers,” Corry said. “I would probably guarantee (2020 and 2021), but I wouldn’t give a big signing bonus. That way I’ve got flexibility after 2021, once the guarantees run out.”

Mike Ginnitti, founder and managing editor of Spotrac.com, came up with a different value for the potential multi-year deal between Henry and the Titans.

One possibility Ginnitti noted is that Henry could wait until Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey resets the entire running back market — likely this offseason — and then slot in under McCaffrey.

But if that’s not the case, Ginnitti used Elliott, Gurley, Freeman and Miller as four contract comparables, figuring Bell and Johnson were in a different category based on their high number of receptions.

Ginnitti calculated Henry’s market value at approximately $45.8 million over four years, which works out to an average of about $11.5 million per season.

“At less than $12M per year, this evaluation is extremely low,” Ginnitti said via e-mail. “But unfortunately it’s what the math computes based on the downslide of impactful RB contracts AND the need for running backs to catch the ball regularly in order to earn the top dollar.”

Ginnitti’s full model for Henry’s potential new contract with the Titans is below.

Let the speculation begin.

* Contract length ** Age when signed; data from Spotrac.com

* Stats are for the two seasons before player signed new deal # Games played percentage

(Photo of Derrick Henry: Frederick Breedon / Getty Images)