EUGENE, Ore. — Starting the season with Auburn was a blessing and a curse for the Oregon Ducks.
It was a blessing because Oregon was able to test itself early against a team that’s proved a quality opponent. The Ducks had to bring energy from the start. They had to be in sync.
It was a curse because they lost.
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Sitting here, five games later at the midseason mark, that loss is the only blemish on Oregon’s record. Sure, there’s room to nitpick. The Ducks offense has been inconsistent, and injuries are beginning to pile up. At the end of the day, though, the Ducks were a possession away from beating the Tigers. They didn’t. The same can’t be said for the other five games, in which Oregon hasn’t been in danger.
Oregon hits midseason with a historically good defense and with Justin Herbert playing high-level football (17 touchdowns, one interception, 69.1 percent completion rate).
The Ducks (5-1 overall) are 3-0 in Pac-12 play for the first time since 2013 and own a two-game lead in the loss column over every team in the North. They could basically wrap up the division this week with a win against Washington. “Obviously a tremendous opportunity and challenge this coming weekend that we’re really excited about,” coach Mario Cristobal said.
The Ducks came into the season with visions of grandeur. The Auburn game ratcheted up everything: Win and the Ducks would be talked about as a playoff contender; a loss would require at least a half season of nothing but winning to return to the conversation. It’s midseason, and the Ducks keep winning.
Here’s how it’s happened.
Best surprise
In 2017, Jim Leavitt’s hiring as defensive coordinator transformed the program. He took a terrible defense and made it respectable, allowing Oregon to start winning again. But the defense plateaued in 2018, Leavitt left during the offseason and Andy Avalos was hired away from Boise State. As impressive as Leavitt’s impact was in 2017, Avalos is topping it in 2019. The Ducks have the No. 1 defense in the Pac-12. They’re fast, they’re aggressive and they’ll absolutely capitalize on mistakes. Oregon has been known as an offensive school. This season, the defense is the straw stirring the drink for a top-15 team.
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Worst surprise
We could make a case for Oregon’s underwhelming running game, but maybe the Ducks began to turn the corner last week. So for “worst surprise,” we’re going to spotlight the lack of production from Oregon’s heralded new receivers. Juwan Johnson and Mycah Pittman were perhaps the most-talked-about additions to this offense in the offseason, but because of injuries, they’ve had minimal impact. Pittman had shoulder surgery in preseason camp, while Johnson has battled a calf injury. Both made their debut against Cal, and they have combined for nine catches. That isn’t their fault. Their absence, though, played a role in Oregon not quite getting into gear on offense.
Defining stat
Auburn scored 27 points against the Ducks, with the final seven coming in the final minute on the winning TD. That’s 27 points in four quarters. In the 20 quarters of football the Ducks have played since, they’ve allowed 25 points. Oregon has held five consecutive foes to single digits, something that hasn’t happened at the school since 1958. No disrespect to that Len Casanova-coached squad, but this team is facing higher-quality offenses.
Breakout player
This is supposed to be a category for a player who has barely contributed in the past. That doesn’t really fit senior Jacob Breeland, who had 48 career receptions coming into the season. But his 2019 production had blown past that: 26 catches for 406 yards and six touchdowns. Unfortunately, that’s where it ends for Breeland. His college career came to an end Friday night when he suffered a season-ending knee injury in a rout of Colorado. It’s a big blow for the Ducks, who already were without tight end Cam McCormick for the season. It’s also a big hit to the passing game, as Breeland had become Herbert’s most dependable target. Johnny Johnson III and Jaylon Redd have become good targets for Herbert, but nobody had the chemistry — or the numbers — Breeland had with Herbert.
Best play
There’s a host of plays that could work, with the vast majority being on defense. But Verone McKinley’s second-quarter interception of Colorado’s Steven Montez best illustrates why this Oregon defense has been so good. It starts up front. The Ducks swarmed Montez, pressuring him into a poor throw. Haki Woods Jr. first made a play on the ball. The ball flipped into the air, then deflected off a Buffaloes player and into the arms of McKinley, who was able to secure the ball before going out of bounds (while the official ruled him out of bounds, it was overturned on replay). It’s a spectacular individual play, sparked by all-around team play, which is what we’ve seen a lot of six games into Avalos’ tenure.
Biggest remaining question to be answered
Was Oregon’s offensive performance against Colorado a sign of things to come or a one-off? Everyone had been waiting for the Ducks to put it together on offense, and it happened against the Buffaloes — 275 yards passing, 252 yards rushing and no turnovers. The Ducks pounded the ball, stretched the field and had numerous explosive plays. It was the offense many thought this unit could be. Now, without Breeland, can the Ducks sustain it against the better teams on the schedule? If they can, with this defense, this could be a special few months in Eugene.
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Recruiting update
Coming off a best-ever recruiting class in 2019, Oregon’s 2020 class is shaping up as a solid, if not quite as jaw-dropping, class in its own right. The Ducks have 20 commitments for the Class of 2020, including eight four-star recruits, and they are currently 16th in the nation and second in the Pac-12. As a comparison, the Ducks were No. 4 in the country at midseason a year ago. The class addresses some specific needs. The Ducks have a commitment from four-star quarterback Jay Butterfield, a top-three pro-style quarterback from Brentwood (Calif.) Liberty. He’ll have an opportunity to throw to four-star wide receiver Johnny Wilson, one of the nation’s top-10 at his position and a former teammate of Pittman’s at Calabasas (Calif.) High. The Ducks are the perceived front-runner for the services of five-star linebacker Noah Sewell, a consensus top-20 prospect nationally and the younger brother of Ducks left tackle Penei Sewell, from Orem (Utah) High. The Ducks also have five commitments from offensive linemen and four from defensive backs, highlighted by four-star safety Avantae Williams from DeLand (Fla.) High, which is about 35 miles northeast of Orlando.
Most important remaining game
The back half of Oregon’s schedule is brutal. The Ducks still have to play at USC and Arizona State, but Saturday’s game at Washington is the most important. It’s a rivalry game. It’s a top-25 game. It’s a road game. It’s a revenge game for the Huskies after Oregon’s overtime thriller in 2018. And it’s being played on ABC with a lot of eyeballs on an Oregon defense that’s starting to get national attention. Win this game and the North is basically wrapped up before Halloween.
Projected final record
Can Oregon run the table? It’s a possibility. No other team in the Pac-12 has looked as complete as Oregon, and with the way the defense is playing, the offense doesn’t have to be perfect. Still, Oregon’s depth has taken a hit in recent weeks, and five of its final six games are against opponents that present a formidable challenge — sorry, Oregon State. I see the Ducks going 5-1 over the final six games, finishing the regular season 10-2 and earning a spot in the Pac-12 title game for the first time since 2014.
(Top photo of La’Mar Winston Jr.: Brian Rothmuller / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)