This will be an important offseason for the Blue Jays. After a third straight losing season, the team needs to make upgrades to their roster, with the most pressing need on the mound in the rotation, followed by first base and the outfield. While the Blue Jays saw some of their young players emerge in 2019 as likely core pieces, it’s now up to the front office to acquire additional talent to support them.
And following two fairly tame winters in terms of activity, this one should be a different story for the Blue Jays. So over the next few weeks, we’ll be identifying and assessing players around Major League Baseball — both free agents and potential trade targets — who we think might currently find their name on some of those infamous Blue Jays whiteboards — as the front office looks to improve the club heading into the 2020 season.
Today: impending free-agent starter, Dallas Keuchel.
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(More ‘Offseason targets’: Edwin Encarnación)
Biography:
Dallas Keuchel began his career with the Houston Astros, who drafted him in the seventh round in 2009. He debuted in 2012 and developed into a front-of-the-rotation arm, capped by his Cy-Young-winning season in 2015 when he went 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA over 232 innings. The left-hander’s best season coincided with the Astros’ return to relevancy, as he led the club to their first postseason appearance since 2005 and started – and won – the AL wild-card game over the New York Yankees on just three days’ rest.
Keuchel spent seven seasons in Houston. In November 2018, as he was set to become a free agent, the Astros gave Keuchel a one-year, $17.9 million qualifying offer, which he declined, opting instead to test the open market. However, because of the QO, signing him meant a team would lose a draft pick. As a result, teams waited until after midnight ET on June 2, when they were no longer subject to draft pick compensation. Keuchel signed a one-year deal with the Atlanta Braves worth $13 million on June 6.
“The Braves have always had interest, and that piqued my interest, as well,” Keuchel told The Athletic’s David O’Brien after he signed. “I was here (without a team) until after the draft pick came off. But like I said, the Braves were always in constant communication, and Alex (Anthopoulos) and his guys were great with dealing with this whole thing.
“They were one of the teams that I had kind of pinpointed going into free agency, with how youthful and exciting their team could be. So I’m just glad that something materialized really quick after the draft pick came off.”
Keuchel, who owns a career ERA of 3.67, is again scheduled to become a free agent this offseason. But fortunately for him, this winter should be more straightforward for the 31-year-old, as he won’t have the dreaded draft-pick compensation hanging around his neck.
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Keuchel’s 2019 in review:
Keuchel had a complicated 2019, to say the least. In theory, the rule that requires clubs to forfeit a draft pick is in place to compensate the team who loses a player to free agency, in this case, the Astros. But in practice, the draft pick chained Keuchel to a cost no team was willing to pay, especially with so many clubs disinclined to pursue free agents. The market effectively froze Keuchel out until mid-June, when teams could sign him without surrendering the pick. At that point, Keuchel chose to sign with the Braves, who outbid several teams, including the New York Yankees. Atlanta signed Keuchel to a one-year, $13 million deal — based on a prorated base salary of $20 million — for the remainder of the season.
Keuchel turned out to be a nice addition to the Braves rotation. He pitched to a 3.75 ERA over 19 starts, helping the team secure its second straight NL East division title. Keuchel kept himself in shape by working out in Newport Beach, Calif., but with no formal spring training, he unsurprisingly got off to a slow start, putting up a 4.83 ERA over his first 10 starts, before finding his stride in mid-August. In six starts between Aug. 14 and Sept. 11, he had a 0.97 ERA. He stumbled a bit at the end, pitching to a 5.63 ERA over his last five starts, which included Game 1 and 4 of the NLDS — both losses — against the St. Louis Cardinals, although he did pitch Game 4 on short rest.
Keuchel’s final 2019 numbers: 8-8, 19 GS, 112 2/3 IP, 3.75 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 121 ERA +, 4.72 FIP, 1.367 WHIP, 2.0 bWAR
Quote that best sums up Keuchel’s 2019:
“This is whole draft-pick compensation thing went from a throw-in for a team losing a player, to is he really a free agent now?” Keuchel told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers during the Braves postseason run. “How can you be free if there is a draft pick attached to you? And why do they value draft picks so much when the percentage of picks who make the league, and are better than you, is what, like .01 percent? There are so many things wrong.”
How is Keuchel trending?
At 31, Keuchel isn’t putting up the kind of numbers he did during his 2015 Cy Young season, but he still projects as a solid mid-rotation starter. With fastball velocity in the 88-90 mph range, Keuchel has always relied on finesse over velocity, which suggests, unlike power pitchers, Keuchel may age well (think Mark Buehrle).
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While the general trend across baseball has been to move away from the sinker, Keuchel continues to rely on it as his best pitch, using it 48.1 percent of the time in 2019, per Brooks Baseball. Keuchel likes to live at the bottom of the zone with his sinker, slider and changeup, and as such, he generates a ton of groundballs. His 60.1 percent groundball rate in 2019 led the majors and was up from the 53.7 percent rate he posted last year, his worst rate since his rookie season (although it was still high enough to lead the league).
For his career, Keuchel has allowed fewer than one home run per nine innings (0.91.), although, not surprisingly given the trend in baseball this past season, Keuchel allowed home runs at his highest clip (1.28 HR/9) since he became a full-time, big-leaguer. His strikeouts were also up this season: 7.27 K/9 vs. 6.73 K/9 in 2018.
That 3.75 ERA looks good, but the 4.72 FIP and 4.02 xFIP, which measures a pitcher’s performance by removing factors like luck on balls in play and defence, could be a warning sign that regression is looming for the lefty. Still, FanGraphs’ well-respected ZiPS projection system still sees Keuchel as a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher for the next three seasons.
Historically, Keuchel has been a dependable starter. Three times he’s pitched 200 innings or more in a season. He was hampered by some shoulder issues in 2016 and a pinched nerve in his neck caused him to miss time in 2017. But he had a healthy 2018 season and led the American League with 34 starts. Even without a traditional spring training in 2019, Keuchel stayed in shape and ended the 2019 season with 112 2/3 innings pitched.
Why Keuchel is a fit for the Blue Jays:
After cycling through 21 different starters in 2019, the No. 1 item on the Blue Jays to-do lost this winter is to acquire durable starting pitching. Or, in the words of general manager Ross Atkins: “We have to have guys that can contribute in significant ways.”
Keuchel has proven to be reliable over his career, landing on the injured list only twice in eight seasons, both occurring in 2017 when he was dealing with a neck issue. In other words, Keuchel’s track record suggests he can take the ball every five days and give his team quality innings. And as mentioned, even if he’s no longer a Cy Young candidate, he still projects to be a solid starter with an ERA and FIP below 4.00 over the next three seasons. Keuchel has intangibles, too, such as postseason experience including a World Series ring. He would presumably be the sort of veteran leader the Blue Jays rotation badly needs.
Last winter, a report from Jon Heyman indicated the Blue Jays were interested in Keuchel. Just how interested is anyone’s guess. Now, without having to worry about surrendering a draft pick, it’s fair to assume the Blue Jays would again be interested in Keuchel. If the Blue Jays are sincere about their intention to improve their rotation this offseason, Keuchel makes sense.
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Why Keuchel might not be a fit for the Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays are coming off a 95-loss season, and there’s a lot of work to be done to make them playoff contenders. Considering he’s pitched in the postseason four of the past five seasons, Keuchel may be more inclined to join a team with legitimate playoff aspirations than one still building towards it. And in comments after he signed with the Braves in June, Keuchel sounded interested in remaining with them long term, if they wanted him, according to The Athletic’s David O’Brien.
“Yeah, absolutely,” he said. “I wouldn’t have come over here for just a half-a-year rental. This organization is one I targeted as a great landing spot. But I’ve got to put up numbers, I’ve got to do my job correctly. And that’s first and foremost is, if I do my job correctly I’m going to help out others and put a great product on the field.”
To woo Keuchel, the Blue Jays may need to offer him more term or money than he can get elsewhere, and hope that he’s OK playing for a team that is still in the midst of a rebuild. The Blue Jays have the money to spend. It’s just a matter of do they deem Keuchel worthy of spending it on.
The likely competition:
Despite his underwhelming playoff performances, the Braves must have liked what Keuchel gave them in the second half, not to mention, how well he appeared to fit in Atlanta’s clubhouse. With their window of contention wide open, the Braves might try to re-sign him. The Yankees were reportedly outbid for Keuchel in June. This offseason could be their chance to add him, especially with spots in their rotation to fill.
Other teams who will be looking to add starters include the Twins, Rays, White Sox, Angels, Rangers, the Phillies, Padres and Giants.
Dollars and Sense:
Keuchel bet on himself in June, taking a rest-of-the-season deal with the Braves, which meant he’d pitch for three-plus months before testing the free-agent market again this winter.
Last year, Keuchel was reportedly seeking at least a five-year deal. Presumably, this winter he’ll be looking for a multi-year deal again, perhaps for at least three or four years. A year ago, MLB Trade Rumours predicted Keuchel would sign for $82 million over four years, while Kiley McDaniel at FanGraphs predicted a four-year deal worth $84 million. It’s a year later, but it’ll probably take somewhere around a $20 million average annual value to sign Keuchel, who is represented by Scott Boras, the super-agent that likes his clients to get paid.
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In conclusion:
It would seem highly unlikely that the Blue Jays would be in on the very best free-agent pitchers the market has to offer this winter. Keuchel, however, may be a realistic target. The 31-year-old would represent the reliable arm they seek and an obvious upgrade over their previous free-agent starter signings, such as Clay Buchholz, Matt Shoemaker and Jaime Garcia, who have pitched a combined 162 innings for the Blue Jays over the last two seasons.
Toronto has historically been a tough sell for free agents, and it’s worth pointing out again that they’re coming off a 95-loss season. It’s true the team has an encouraging young core featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio, but they have a long way to go before being considered a legitimate contender. Teams such as the Braves, Yankees or Twins can offer Keuchel a more competitive environment.
Last winter, Keuchel failed to land the big deal so he’ll surely be seeking one again this time around. And with only an estimated $65 million on the payroll for 2020, the Blue Jays will have money to spend on free agents. The question is: would they be willing to offer Keuchel enough to keep him from signing elsewhere?