On the day Red Sox ownership announced its desire to cut payroll below the luxury tax threshold, chairman Tom Werner also mentioned the only tried-and-true way of maintaining big league success without big-time spending.
“We need to have more depth in our minor league system,” Werner said, “and more people coming up through the system that can be everyday baseball players.”
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That’s the trick, isn’t it?
Despite a farm system that was thinned during the Dave Dombrowski era, the Red Sox might not be far away from providing that sort of cheap, homegrown impact. Dombrowski’s many trades did rob the team of valuable depth, especially in the rotation, but it seems to have cost relatively few everyday standouts (Yoan Moncada is a notable exception). Dombrowski’s restraint in the past year gave the farm a chance to grow, and it did.
Despite having no first-round draft pick this season, and despite Michael Chavis losing his prospect status, the Red Sox minor league system moved up from 30th to 22nd in Baseball America’s midseason rankings. First baseman Triston Casas, third baseman Bobby Dalbec and starting pitcher Bryan Mata each moved into Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects. Their system is not revered, but it’s no longer dismissed.
“It’s back on the rise,” Baseball America wrote.
Whoever takes over baseball operations, it seems, will have a mandate to continue those improvements and reap meaningful rewards. This is the state of the minor league system he or she will be inheriting.
Starting pitching
In recent years, the Red Sox have had little trouble developing impact position players, and they’ve had some success with high-powered relievers, but the rotation has been a player development wasteland. Eduardo Rodriguez was acquired from Baltimore and partially developed by the Red Sox, but he was not a homegrown success story like Mookie Betts or Rafael Devers. Draft picks Michael Kopech, Shaun Anderson and Logan Allen have reached the major leagues as starters, but only after being traded elsewhere. The Red Sox need that trend to end.
Next in line: Tanner Houck
Not necessarily the top pitching prospect in the system, but probably the one closest to a big league impact. The Red Sox used Houck out of the Triple-A bullpen late this season, getting him comfortable just in case Alex Cora needed him in that role down the stretch, but he’s since been assigned to the Arizona Fall League to build more innings as a starter. The 2017 first-round pick will be in the Triple-A rotation next year after pitching to a 3.24 ERA this season, mostly as a reliever.
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Names to know: Bryan Mata, Jay Groome, Thad Ward
Mata already has reached Double-A as a 20-year-old, and Groome, a 21-year-old former first-rounder, returned from Tommy John surgery with a fastball in the mid-90s and a changeup that, according to vice president of player development Ben Crockett, looks even better than it did before the injury. Ward was a fifth-round pick in 2018. Despite a college career spent mostly in the bullpen, the Red Sox deployed him as a starter and he was named the system’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year after posting a 2.78 ERA across both Single-A levels.
On the radar: Noah Song
One of the most fascinating players in the minor league system, Song was a fourth-round pick out of the Naval Academy, and his 1.06 ERA reflects how he dominated the New York-Penn League. But his military commitment leaves his long-term future in doubt. High-end talent with highly unusual circumstances.
Unusual fascination: Kyle Hart
At some point, minor league results begin to matter, and the results are in Hart’s favor. He’s not overpowering, and as a 19th-round pick, he’s never generated much prospect hype, but he pitched to a 3.63 ERA in Double-A and Triple-A this season. The lefty will be Rule 5 eligible if the Red Sox leave him off the 40-man roster. After seeing 36th rounder Trevor Kelley pitch his way to the big leagues this season, it’s hard to dismiss Hart’s chances. “He’s really precise with his work and his competitiveness and execution,” Crockett said. “And he’s also got a really nice pitch mix. He’s got different pitches he can throw in different locations. He’s somebody that, you can’t discredit the numbers that he’s put up and the way he’s performed.”
Relief pitching
Matt Barnes and Brandon Workman were minor league starters who wound up carving big league roles out in the bullpen, and that’s not unusual. It’s possible that the next impact, homegrown reliever is currently a starter.
Next in line: Darwinzon Hernandez
Hernandez may no longer qualify as a prospect after 29 big-league appearances, but he’s still just 22 and has barely scratched the surface of what he might be able to accomplish. Hernandez was long ago labeled as a long-term relief candidate, and he was finally moved out of the rotation this season. With little Triple-A experience, he became a high-powered late-inning option in the second half and seems to have a bullpen job locked up for next year. Same for Josh Taylor, the lefty acquired in last year’s Deven Marrero trade.
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Names to know: Travis Lakins, Mike Shawaryn
These were the up-the-down relievers who didn’t quite settle in the way Hernandez and Taylor did. But this pair seemed to stay ahead of Bobby Poyner and Trevor Kelley for big-league opportunities. They’re also notable for carrying some measure of prospect stock into this season, and for showing flashes of big-league ability (Shawaryn was particularly good when he first arrived, Lakins was especially good at the end). If the Red Sox are going to try to trim payroll, it might make sense to avoid the minor arbitration raises that went to guys like Tyler Thornburg and Steven Wright and instead find one or two shuttle relievers who can actually stick around.
On the radar: Jhonathan Diaz, Yoan Aybar
The Red Sox put these two lefties on the radar by sending them to the Arizona Fall League in the same offseason when they become Rule 5 eligible. Crockett said the Fall League is not a final testing ground to decide whether to protect them, but rather a chance to build on interesting seasons. Diaz had a particularly good second half as a Class-A starter, and hard-throwing Aybar got to High A in just his second season as a pitcher (he was a teenaged outfielder the previous four years as a professional).
Unusual fascination: Durbin Feltman
The fascination itself isn’t unusual — Feltman was a third-round pick and remains a legitimate prospect — but the attention he received in spring training was not typical. With only 22 professional games on his resume, Feltman spent spring training as a major league curiosity, with some wondering if he could make the Opening Day roster despite not being invited to big league camp. Instead, Feltman spent the year in Double-A, where he had a 5.26 ERA with 31 walks in 51 1/3 innings. “I think it was something where, he was a better pitcher at the end of the year,” Crockett said. “There’s always going to be attention for everybody in different ways and expectations, whether it’s media or family or friends or (the player himself), but I think those are things that the players have to learn to deal with. I think it’s something he did a good job adjusting to during the course of the year.”
Corner infield
With Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce each hitting the open market, there might be an opportunity for a young player to get a shot at first base next season. Third base, obviously, is occupied by Rafael Devers.
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Next in line: Bobby Dalbec
Arguably, this should be Michael Chavis, who could slide to first base if the Red Sox sign a more experienced second baseman, but it’s Dalbec who seems as intriguing as any on-the-verge prospect in the Red Sox system. It was telling in September when the Red Sox declined to give him a call-up, but did have him hang around the team for a homestand. They were clearly getting his feet wet for a reason. Dalbec has earned solid reviews for his play at third base, but he’s seen more time at first lately, and he hit 27 homers last year — seven of them during a 30-game stint in Triple A. Might not be handed the first-base job, but could certainly fight for it.
Names to know: Sam Travis, Josh Ockimey
These two get lumped together because they share some limitations. Both seem best suited as platoon bats, with Travis having handled big league lefties for a brief period this season, and Ockimey having hit 25 homers with 82 walks in Triple A (almost all of his damage came against right-handers). Travis basically disappeared late in the year, and Ockimey struck out enough to bat just .204. Neither seems particularly ideal, but each could have some value under the right circumstances.
On the radar: Triston Casas
Not ready for the big leagues, but very much on the radar. At 19, Casas hit 20 home runs and became the biggest name in the entire minor league system. “The consistency of his routine and preparation were pretty impressive,” Crockett said. “You just don’t often see that kind of attention to detail from a young player, and the deliberate, purposeful way he went through his preparation and his routine at the full-season level was pretty impressive. In the long term, in addition to the success he had on the field, I think that’s something that’s going to help him stabilize the consistency of performance.”
Unusual fascination: The lack of catchers
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Could have listed some of the lower-level third basemen who haven’t put up great numbers, but remain interesting prospects. Instead, we’ll use this space to point out the Red Sox still lack a standout catching prospect, especially in the upper levels for immediate depth. Kole Cottam, the fourth-round pick in 2018, is one of many from that draft class who had an encouraging first full season, but he’s not exactly knocking on the door. Next year could be another season of Oscar Hernandez or Juan Centeno serving as the only real depth behind Christian Vazquez and whoever’s second string.
Middle infield
Another system weakness that’s showing signs of improvement (though it’s still hardly a strength). The Red Sox took middle infielders with their first two picks in this year’s draft, but they’ve obviously a long way from showing enough to be big league options. Instead, the Red Sox will hope to get depth and maybe a little bit of impact from what they have in-house.
Next in line: C.J. Chatham
Second-round pick dealt with injury issues early in his career, but he’s been healthy the past two seasons and likely played his way to a 40-man roster spot this winter. He’s a strong defensive shortstop who’s consistently hit for average with some doubles power, and this year the Red Sox began using him at second base in obvious preparation for a potential utility role down the road. He’s been playing a lot of second in the Arizona Fall League recently. Could be immediate depth next season.
Names to know: Michael Chavis, Marco Hernandez
Again, not exactly prospects, but they certainly fit the mold of homegrown players who could play a more important role next season. Both Chavis and Hernandez got off to terrific starts this season, Chavis looking like an early Rookie of the Year candidate while Hernandez returned from years of shoulder issues to have an .858 OPS in part-time duty through early August. Now the question is, can they sustain that production enough to actually fill the gap at second base? The team’s internal metrics were surprisingly bullish on Chavis as a defender.
On the radar: Cameron Cannon, Matthew Lugo, Antoni Flores
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None put up particularly good numbers this season, but all three regularly appear among the top 15 or so prospects in the system. They’re all raw to some degree, though Cannon was a college player and already has some experience moving around the infield. If one of them can clear enough hurdles to become a major leaguer, it’ll help.
Unusual fascination: Ryan Fitzgerald
It’s OK to have a soft spot for undrafted guys signed out of independent ball, but that’s especially true when they hit a little bit in Single A and get rewarded as the Red Sox minor league defensive player of the year. The Red Sox are sufficiently intrigued by Fitzgerald that they’re giving him reps in the outfield during instructional league. If he keeps putting up numbers in Double A, it’ll be time to think of him as a legitimate candidate for a utility job down the road.
Outfield
For good reason, there’s much attention on the homegrown Killer Bs outfield of Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi. That group has served the Sox well, and there’s still confidence that Benintendi can become even better. But there’s little guarantee all three will be back next season, and the system has been without any viable alternatives. That might change next season.
Next in line: Marcus Wilson
He’s not the top outfield prospect — more on that in a bit — but Wilson does seem well-positioned for a 40-man spot and a Triple-A job next season. Acquired in the Blake Swihart trade, Wilson got off to a rough start with Double-A Portland, was sent back down to High-A, then returned to Double-A with an .811 OPS in the second half. Now he’s in the Fall League where he’s continued to hit. “He did a great job building that momentum,” Crockett said. “Building some more confidence and kind of comfort and understanding with the organization and what our expectations were. He embraced them and ran away with them.”
Name to know: Jarren Duran
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The question is, how quickly can he rise through the system. In his first full season, he’s already reached Double A, a tremendous showing by a seventh-round pick who’s become the top outfield prospect in the system. Double A was a challenge, but he seemed to find his footing. “Maybe he tried to do a little too much early on and tried to elevate his game in Double A,” Crockett said. “And I think that learning opportunity presented itself for him to understand that he could be himself and have success at that level and continue, kind of, small adjustments instead of big ones.”
On the radar: Gilberto Jimenez, Nick Decker
Jimenez and Decker wound up in the outfield together at short-season Lowell and stand out as two of the better low-level prospects in the system. They should be ready for their full-season debuts in 2020. A lot of talent, but also quite a long way to go.
Unusual fascination: Tzu-Wei Lin
There are some other low-level outfielders who could be mentioned here, but they’re years away from the big league radar. So this is as good a place as any to mention Lin, the glove-first utility man who burned his final option this season. He’ll likely have to make the team out of spring training or be exposed to waivers (which might not be a problem). He’s basically a known quantity who can play either shortstop or center field and has proven capable of fill-in work at the major league level. He’s a popular guy around the team, but his .665 OPS in Triple-A this season didn’t do him any favors.
(Photo of Houck: Ben McCanna / Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)