Let’s jump right into this week’s mailbag…
What does Justin Faulk do for the St. Louis power play? — Jordan J.
Well Jordan, it’s hard to say what any one player does moving from one team to another. As I have said before, the tools we have to assess this are our eyes and past stats. For me there is no mistaking the fact that Justin Faulk is a very high-level D-man in all areas of the ice. He has played his whole career up to this point in Carolina — and let’s face the facts, the Canes have been pretty bad until recently. At 6-foot and 217 pounds he won’t be pushed around and is a very good skater. What you want to know about, though, is the power play.
Advertisement
St Louis’ PP was ranked 10th overall last year, scoring 21.1 percent of the time with a man advantage. That’s the team Faulk will play for this year. His team from last year, the Canes, were ranked 20th (17.81%). That’s a pretty sizable jump and to my knowledge, Faulk was not on the top PP for the Canes most of the year.
This year the Blues’ top PP should increase on those numbers, coming off a Stanley Cup-winning season and being the best team, statistically, in the second half! Confidence for skill guys goes a long way. Faulk will be on the PP1, skating alongside (as of now) Tyler Bozak, Ryan O’Reilly, David Perron and Alex Pietrangelo. All of these guys are great PP players and Faulk should see an increase in PP points and should make the Blues’ unit even better.
How many games do you expect Carter Hart to start this year? — Bernard C.
Chances are you’re like me and heard the name Carter Hart long before he started a game in the NHL for the Flyers. Chances are, like me, you heard how this was it. This was going to be the guy who put Philadelphia back in the good graces of the goaltending gods. Chances are you read all about the numbers he put up before the NHL: In 2015-2018, a .918-.947 save percentage, which is really really good — elite actually. He had 22 shutouts in three years. He compiled 98 wins out of a possible 158 games, all while often being the youngest player on his team in the most demanding position. He did this on the Everett Silvertips, a middle-of-the-road-to-decent WHL team. Looking at those numbers and also knowing that he has good size and high level athletic intangibles, for me, it comes as no surprise why the Flyers and everyone else were pumped to have this kid as their starting goaltender.
That brings me to the question… how many games will he start? He started 31 games last season and split time with eight — YES, 8! — other goalies, and didn’t start the year with the NHL club.
Advertisement
This year will be different and will be better.
He will be starting for the Flyers all year and will be backed up by aging and oft-injured Brian Elliott. Hart spent the whole offseason with the Flyers and now knows the system inside and out, which will help his numbers. There is a new coach in town and Philly is set to make some real noise this year, which means I think his win total will only go up playing for a better team and having more opportunity to play.
The big difference will be with the D-corps. Provorov, their No. 1, will be better. Travis Sanheim surprised everyone with his excellent play, and they picked up Matt Niskanen and Justin Braun. Philly went from having a very weak unproven defensive corps to having, in my opinion, one of the strongest overall in the Eastern Conference.
With all that being said, fantasy hockey is about making informed guesses, so here is my stat line for Carter Hart:
- GS 51
- GAA 2.36
- SVPCT .918
- SO 8
That is really good, and for where he was drafted (between 75-95 overall), an absolute steal.
If you have Carter Hart, I envy you and I’m sad I don’t have him on more of my teams.
How long at the beginning of the season do you usually give a player to produce before dropping them? — Matthew N.
This is a great question! Also, a great conversation to have with other people in your league. And it’s an impossible question to answer without a whole pile of your league’s details, your roster, how it’s constructed, and what position in the standings you currently find yourself.
So what I will do is give my approach and how you can tackle this problem, which is one that every fantasy GM deals with and it can make or break your season:
- The first thing to do is assess why you drafted the player in the first place, and what he cost you to acquire through the draft or through trade (my colleague here on the fantasy baseball side, Ron Shandler, often reminds readers that you spent months prepping for this draft and season, and not to get too antsy early based on a few games, or even weeks). For instance, what is easier — dropping an early-round pick in Victor Hedman, who has done it pretty much every year and is the top defenseman on a high-scoring team, plays on the top PP, is the No. 1 D-man for his team and is more than likely completely irreplaceable? Or dropping a later-round pick such as Damon Severson — a guy you took because of his upside who could play on New Jersey’s PP 2 and has flashed a little bit when used properly? Severson is a much easier player to replace. So we need to consider the player’s worth in the fantasy world, and then ask: Is it even possible to find someone to replace him?
- Second thing is how long has the point drought been going? Fantasy hockey is a long season with tons of games and plenty of opportunity for a player to turn it around and start producing. If the player is proven and been very good in the past, he will more than likely right the ship and go back to accumulating points for your team. For me, this is the hardest part of the process, but being patient can really pay off. You need to have a sliding scale of sorts: the higher you drafted the player and the more known talent the player has, the longer you need to hold him.
- Roster construction. How many of each player do you need? How many teams in the league? Lastly, what position does he play? If your league is a standard size (say 10 teams, starting roster is two centers, two of each wing, four defensemen, 1 goalie, and five bench spots), chances are there is a replacement player with some decent value, depending on who you’re dropping and where he was drafted (see step 1). If you’re in a deeper league (14 teams, three centers, three sets of each wing, six starting defensemen and possibly two extra starting players and two starting goalies, with eight bench), your waiver pool is a pretty scary place to pick up a player you might need to put in your starting lineup.
- I mentioned “what position does he play?” Fantasy hockey players know center is a pretty deep position, just like QB in fantasy football, and you can wait longer to draft your centermen. Wing is a little more scarce and, for me, defense even more so, since most teams are going with a skilled shooter and or puck mover on D for their PP units. Most NHL teams use only one defenseman per PP unit. Certain players and certain positions are more replaceable.
So in the end, look, you’re in control and no one can tell you what is right for your team and know for certain. You’re the GM, which is very cool and why fantasy sports are so fun. Before fantasy hockey was a thing, this is something you and your buddies would talk about. What you would do if you were in control? Who you would take in the draft? What players you would trade for? And what player you would drop because someone just isn’t producing?
Advertisement
Well now it’s possible, and doing all these things can fill you with worry and anxiety or joy and pride. Use the four steps above to assess the situation fully and pull the trigger or don’t… you’re in control. Dropping a player and seeing someone pick him up for nothing and that player gets hot and piles up points for another team is one of the most painful lessons in patience a fantasy GM can endure. Over the years of playing I have become more patient… but you need to decide how long is too long.
That is the process for holding or dropping a player I use. Hope it helps!
More mailbag next week! Good luck everyone, and may your early fantasy matchups all be successful ones!
(Top photo: Robert Hradil/NHLI via Getty Images)