Some numbers for the Lakers over the last four seasons:
2018-19: Defensive Rating (12), 3-point Percentage (29)
2017-18: Defensive Rating (12), 3-point percentage (29)
2016-17: Defensive Rating (30), 3-point percentage (22)
2015-16: Defensive Rating (30), 3-point percentage (30)
So for two seasons the defense has been a little better than their record would suggest. Still, it’s been a minute since L.A. dominated on that end. Meanwhile, perimeter shooting been a consistent and well-documented catastrophe. Team numbers are born of individuals, so it’s no surprise the long (very, very long) list of players who have suited for the Lakers during that time has included players who could play a little D and others who (in theory, maybe, kinda sorta) hit a 3.
Advertisement
3-and-D?
At best, they’ve had to settle for “or.”
In short, the Lakers have sorely lacked a Danny Green-type player. That wing who could spread a defense on one end of the floor and help anchor it on the other. To their credit, when it came time this offseason to finally address that need, the Lakers didn’t just settle for a Danny Green type. They went ahead and signed the actual guy.
Two years, $30 million for a player coming off a spectacular year with the world champion Toronto Raptors. In almost 28 minutes a night over 80 games, Green hit over 45 percent of his 3-point attempts, a career high. He also shot a career-best 48 percent on 2-pointers, fueling a 63.2 percent True Shooting Percentage (13th in the NBA, and also—spoiler alert—a career high). Not unrelated, Toronto was 13.9 points better (!!!) per 100 trips with Green on the court. On the other end the Raptors, who featured outstanding defenders up and down the roster, were still four points leakier with him on the bench. All told, Toronto’s combined efficiency was an absurd +17.6 points higher when Green played.
That cartoonish figure dwarfs those even from his best season (statistically, at least), when in 2014-15 he posted career highs in points, rebounds, PER, win shares, box plus-minus, and VORP, and the Spurs were a “mere” 7.3 points better, efficiency wise, when he played. On/off numbers are a bit of a shorthand and can no doubt be misleading, and Green’s from last year won’t be repeated. But they’re not meaningless, either, and do illustrate the positive impact Green can have. You can only “yeah, but…” +17.6 so much.
All told, of the non-stars available in this year’s free-agent market, there may not have been a more logical target for the team’s money.
And now that they have him, he’s as critical to making this year’s Lakers team a genuine championship contender as anyone not named LeBron James or Anthony Davis. If the defense doesn’t get into the league’s upper tier and the shooting doesn’t drastically improve, they won’t be good enough to win.
Advertisement
Green is vital for both. The Lakers expect Davis (with help from Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee) to anchor the defense at rim. But the backcourt rotation is short on plus defensive options and proven commodities on the wing are hardly abundant. The bigs will need help, and Green is best suited to the task. He needs to be a consistent, effective presence night in and night out. On the other end, the Lakers have plenty of guys who are very willing to hoist from downtown. Some have even had moments of success. But only Green has the type of gravity that forces defenses to truly honor his shot, creating holes in other places. Without it, the offense will suffer.
Just as important, the Lakers need Green to remain the durable presence he’s been over the course of his career. Since establishing himself in the league in the 2011-2012 season, Green has never played fewer than 66 games, and five times has been over 70. If Green isn’t somewhere in that 70-80 range, the Lakers could find themselves in some trouble.
And adding nearly 3,200 minutes of playoff experience to the roster can’t hurt, either.
Best-case scenario
With Davis and James drawing the focus of opposing defenses, Green is treated to an almost insulting number of open 3s — last season, he knocked down over 51 percent of those — and takes advantage. As a result, overall there’s no meaningful drop in his efficiency, regardless of shot location. Green’s prowess not only juices the team’s 3-point percentage, but makes it harder to defend L.A.’s lob game and fast break as well, thanks to the attention he demands. As the team’s primary perimeter defender, Green protects James, allowing him to pick his spots over the course of the season and remain fresh for the postseason push.
Basically, it’s “Toronto Green, The Sequel.” If they get that guy or something close, the Lakers are in fantastic shape.
Worst-case scenario
While Green’s utility goes down significant when he’s not making shots, he’s probably still too skilled and smart a player to be genuinely bad. Like Jared Dudley, Green’s ability to make the right play offensively and communicate on the other end gives him real value, so the odds of this becoming a true bust of a contract are reasonably low. Statistically speaking, though, Lakers definitely bought high on Green. During the three years previous to last, whether measured by counting stats or analytics, Green wasn’t anything special. He never cracked 38 percent from 3-point range, well below his 40.4 percent career average, and was a negative player in offensive box plus-minus. Nor was he, by his standards, as reliable, health-wise. Plenty of people wondered if his run as a pretty high-end NBA player, impressive for a second-round pick, was basically done.
Advertisement
The Lakers have been without reliable perimeter shooting for so long now that a guy who consistently knocks down 38 percent of them seems great. But there’s a huge difference in impact between 38 percent Green and 45 percent Green. They’re counting on him to stay in that low-to-mid 40s range. He doesn’t, and it’s disappointing. Meanwhile, expectations for the Lakers’ defense, set high with the addition of Davis, aren’t met in part because Green, now 32 and coming off a long championship run, isn’t quite as sharp.
Overall, Green looks much more like the guy from his last three seasons in San Antonio rather than the one from 2011-15, or the player who helped Toronto last year.
The Achilles injury to DeMarcus Cousins punched a hole in the team’s secondary scoring, hurt their ball movement, and negatively impacted team rebounding. In theory, the addition of Howard helps claw back some of that production, but nobody could replace the threat of a mostly-healthy Cousins offensively. It also makes Green’s shotmaking that much more important.
So is it fair to be nervous? The sample size he posted in Toronto was much, much larger than Avery Bradley’s magical 14 games in Memphis. Green never sank to levels Bradley has seen over the last few seasons, and Bradley was probably never as good as his reputation. Green piled up four seasons as one of the league’s best role players. But while it’s not a straight up apples-to-apples comparison, you seem to run into more people who are deeply skeptical on Bradley (hand raised) while viewing Green is as sure a thing as the Lakers could find in the post-Kawhi Leonard market.
Was last season a high-class return to form for Green, or a last big burst before settling back into that downward trend?
The Lakers have a lot of questions heading into the 2019-20 season, and the answer to this one could be as influential as any.
(Top photo of Danny Green: Jesse D. Garrabrant / NBAE via Getty Images)